Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skamokawa Valley, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday October 19, 2017 7:25 AM PDT (14:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:18AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 506 Am Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through Friday morning...
In the main channel..Combined seas 13 ft then building to near 20 ft this afternoon, then subsiding to 18 ft early Fri. However, seas will temporarily build to 14 feet with breakers possible with the ebb around 5 am and to 19-21 ft with breakers during the strong ebb around 530 pm this afternoon.
PZZ200 506 Am Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Cold front moved south of the central oregon coastal waters. A trough of low pres will linger over the waters today, then a weak ridge of high pres builds in Fri. A west swell arriving Thu brings seas to 20 to 22 ft from this afternoon into Fri morning along with hazardous bar conditions. Another strong frontal system arrives Fri night and Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skamokawa Valley, WA
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location: 46.27, -123.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 191040 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
339 am pdt Thu oct 19 2017
updated to add last paragraph to short term discussion.

Synopsis A very wet cold front will gradually move southward
across western oregon today. This front is the leading edge of a cool
upper level trough which will cause snow levels to lower to near the
cascade passes tonight and Friday. Post-frontal showers will linger
through Friday, perhaps with a few thunderstorms. Another strong and
wet frontal system is expected to bring more heavy rain to the
forecast area this weekend. Drier weather is likely early next week
as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the western united
states.

Short term Today through Saturday... Impressive rainfall totals
across much of pacific and wahkiakum counties overnight, as our slow
moving and very moist cold front slowly lumbered its way south of the
columbia. Thus far these SW washington counties have generally picked
up 2-4 inches of rain overnight, with significant rises on the grays
river near rosburg as a result. Thankfully the focus of the heaviest
rain has slowly shifted southward overnight, with 1-2 inches thus far
across much of clatsop and northern tillamook counties. The leading
edge of the rain extends from a portland to newport line, slowly
advancing southeast with the front. It has been fairly breezy ahead
of the front, with south winds gusting 25-35 mph inland and 40-50 mph
along the coast. Decided to cancel the high wind warning for all
zones earlier in the shift, as winds appear to have peaked below
criteria.

Looking upstream, a strong vortmax near 45n between 135-140w is
approaching the pac NW coast, being driven by a strong jet MAX to its
w-nw. This system will act as a kicker for the front, accelerating it
southeastward this afternoon and evening. This system will also push
the moisture axis southward into northern california. By the time
that occurs, most of the willamette valley will have seen 0.50 to
1.00 inch of rain, with some spots over an inch. Coastal and higher
terrain locations will probably average 1.50 to 3.00 inches, with
local 2-4 inch amounts for our northern coast higher terrain zones.

These are impressive totals, but probably not enough to cause
widespread hydro issues other than some problems with backed up storm
drains, especially in urban areas. Another area of concern is the
eagle creek burn scar in the columbia gorge, but the 2 inches or so
expected from this front will probably not be quite enough to cause
significant issues. Will need to monitor rain rates closely in the
gorge, but burn scar impacts are still a bit of an unknown as the
soil becomes increasingly saturated and the environment becomes
increasingly different than it was during our last significant heavy
rain event back in late september.

Cool air pushing in behind the front will lower snow levels to around
4000 to 5000 feet tonight, based on GFS 850 mb temps around zero by
Friday morning. Snow showers will add up to a few inches tonight and
Friday at the higher ski resort elevations, but with the jet stream
focused to our south and only modest orographic flow at 850 mb, it
will be difficult to wring out 6 inches of snow in any given 12 hour
period. Therefore we will hold off on issuing any snow advisories at
the moment. For the lowlands, there will be plenty of showers, but
mainly of the air mass variety. With 500 mb temps starting off Friday
in the -28 to -30 deg c and lifted indices near zero or slightly
negative per the latest gfs, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms
Friday. However, temps aloft are expected to warm up during the
afternoon, which could make it somewhat difficult for thunder to
continue later into the afternoon and evening.

Warm advection and isentropic lift intensify Friday night and
Saturday as the pacific jet stream takes aim again at the pac nw.

Most models are hinting at a strong lobe of low pressure quickly
approaching the pac NW coast Fri night before curving northward early
sat. This system pushes a warm front onshore Sat morning and across
the cascades by afternoon. Based on this evolution, expect rain to
increase throughout the forecast area late Fri night or early sat.

Excellent isentropic lift of a very warm moist air mass over the
cooler air in place will probably very efficient at generating
precipitation, meaning late Fri night early Sat could be very wet
throughout the forecast area. Once the warm front pushes east of the
cascades, snow levels will rise well above pass level Saturday
afternoon. 06z NAM shows a solid 40-50 kt w-sw flow at 850 mb across
the coast range and into the cascades Saturday afternoon, which would
likely result in substantial QPF in the higher terrain with
considerable rain-shadowing for the inland valleys. Another 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible for the higher terrain from this system,
with 2 to 4 inches along the coast and 1 to 3 inches for the inland
valleys. This could be enough to start to cause hydro issues, and
brings up concerns for the eagle creek burn scar in the gorge. Will
issue a hydrologic outlook based on all this shortly after getting
the morning forecast package out.

One last item of concern for the Saturday... Winds, particularly
inland. After the warm front moves through late morning or midday
Saturday, the latest gfs ECMWF nam all open up the pressure gradients
considerably for gusty southerly flow both along the coast and
inland. Depending on the magnitude of south-to-north pressure
gradients, peak gusts could be anywhere between 30-50 mph inland and
40-60 mph along the coast and in the higher terrain. The higher end
of these values would warrant a wind advisory for the inland valleys,
and the coast could touch warning criteria. Weagle

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

Saturday night through Wednesday... .Strong moist zonal flow will set
up over the region Saturday night through Sunday. Snow levels will
rise above 8,000 feet. Still some uncertainty as to whether or not
the heaviest rain will set up over western oregon or western
washington. Have kept pops high, but forecast details such as amount,
intensity, and duration are unclear.

Expect to see some rises on area rivers, especially in the coastal
basins, and if the heavy rain sets up over urban areas, some
localized urban flooding issues could develop. Also, locations with
significant burn scars should be aware of possible flash flooding and
debris flows.

Models are suggesting, short wave ridging will develop over the
pacific NW early next week, which should bring at least a day or two
of dry weather. The euro model suggests a weak front could push into
the region during the middle of next week while the GFS remains dry
and mild. Given the uncertainty, have trended pops towards
climatology. Bishop

Aviation Leading edge of rain band behind a cold front
is along a pacific city to portland line. This band will slowly
slide south today bringing moderate rain with MVFR to possibly
ifr CIGS and vis. Conditions look to improve after 20 02z. Plan
for a return toVFR inland with MVFR at the coast.

Kpdx and approaches... MVFR CIGS and vis expected as a rain band
slides across the area today. Heaviest rain arrives
around the morning push bringing some possibility of ifr
cigs vsbys. Conditions starting to improve after 22z withVFR
expected after 20 02z. South wind gusting to 15 to 25 kt range
likely to persist through 20 00z.

Marine Cold front over the central oregon coastal waters
sliding south. Winds at buoy 46050 off newport gusting 35-37 kt
past few hours. Peak winds at newport jetty was 44 kt. Winds
will be easing over the next few hours with gales ending by 5 am
or so. Winds for the remainder of the day and evening will be
gusting 20 to 25 kt as a trough moves into the waters. An
unstable air mass later today brings a slight chance of
thunderstorms through fri.

Seas will be around 16 ft in the area of gales, then
subside some as the winds ease. But will be ramping up to 20 to
22 ft this afternoon as a longer period northwest swell arrives.

Expect coastal areas above 20 ft around 2 pm and peaking late
afternoon early evening then slowly subside. Seas will remain in
the 15 to 18 ft through at least late sat. In addition to the
small craft advisory for hazardous seas, there is a high surf
advisory for the coastal beaches this afternoon through fri
morning. Additionally, expect particularly hazardous bar
conditions along the length of the coast. Another storm system
capable of producing at least gale force wind gusts appears on
track for Friday night and Saturday. Mh jbonk

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 am pdt Friday
for central oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... High surf advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 am pdt Friday
for south washington coast.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 9 pm pdt this evening for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 10 nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 pm pdt Friday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 10 nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning until 5 am pdt early this morning for coastal
waters from cascade head to florence or out 10 nm-waters
from cascade head to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 10 am
pdt Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 17 mi37 min S 8 G 12 54°F 57°F1002.2 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 29 mi37 min 57°F1003 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 36 mi25 min 54°F12 ft
46096 37 mi115 min S 19 G 23 48°F 54°F1003.4 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 41 mi37 min S 19 G 23 55°F 54°F1001.3 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR24 mi30 minSSW 84.00 miRain Fog/Mist54°F51°F90%1002.3 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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W6CalmCalmW7NW5NW6NW5N6CalmCalmSE3E4SE3CalmE3CalmSE4CalmSE4SE4Calm
2 days agoS3SE33E5----N5NW7W6W3W3S3SE33SE5SE3E4CalmSE4CalmCalmSE6S6S12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Skamokawa, Steamboat Slough, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Skamokawa
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Thu -- 02:39 AM PDT     8.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:33 AM PDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 02:47 PM PDT     8.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:46 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:08 PM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.96.17.787.364.531.60.80.92.24.46.78.48.98.26.95.13.31.60.3-0.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cathlamet, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Cathlamet
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Thu -- 02:57 AM PDT     8.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM PDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:06 PM PDT     8.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:46 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:38 PM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.95.37.387.66.55.13.62.21.10.71.43.45.87.98.98.57.45.842.30.8-0.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.