Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Munising, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:48PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:22 PM EDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:23PMMoonset 2:55AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ249 /o.exp.kmqt.ma.w.0018.000000t0000z-180616t1830z/ 226 Pm Edt Sat Jun 16 2018
.the special marine warning will expire at 230 pm edt... The affected areas were... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... The Thunderstorm has weakened and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Boaters should remember that additional Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Lat...lon 4661 8729 4665 8730 4668 8730 4690 8719 4670 8675 4652 8710 time...mot...loc 1825z 215deg 13kt 4674 8704
LSZ249 Expires:201806161835;;634934 FZUS73 KMQT 161826 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 226 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018 LSZ249-266-161835-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Munising, MI
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location: 46.38, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 241426
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
1026 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 529 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
water vapor imagery and rap analysis contiue to show split flow
across N america. In the northern stream, a trof is amplifying over
eastern canada. In the southern stream, a series of shortwaves are
aligned from rockies to the great lakes. Rather vigorous looking
shortwave moving into southern lower mi is supporting shra as far n
as far northern lower mi and portions of northern lake mi early this
morning. Meanwhile, the amplifying northern stream is pushing a cold
front S across the upper lakes. Behind sfc front, sct -shra have
developed from NE mn across northern lake superior over the last few
hrs. Shra seem to be developing just ahead of sharper 700mb troffing
and in area of weak fgen. Brisk NE winds have developed over much of
lake superior in the wake of the cold front, especially across
western lake superior where stronger winds cover a much larger area.

Caribou island and devils island have both gusted over 30kt in the
last couple of hrs.

Much of the 00z model guidance (arw and nmm in particular) including
evening rap hrrr runs depicted the pcpn over lake mi northern lower
mi too far W and NW into S central upper mi early this morning. Was
a fairly sustantial bust given the rather significant pcpn amounts
the models were indicating. Meanwhile, guidance is in decent shape
with the pcpn signal for the post-frontal shra from NE mn across
northern lake superior. As 700mb trof and fgen tend to weaken this
morning, expect these shra to gradually diminish in coverage as they
settle se. Isold -shra sprinkles may reach NW upper mi during the
morning, but should dissipate before spreading any farther se. Will
be a trend to monitor thru the morning hrs. There has been a signal
in recent days for perhaps some convection to develop near the mi wi
state line during the aftn. With little instability indicated by
models in upper mi and with steadily rising mid-level heights thru
the day, will not include any aftn pcpn in the fcst. The brisk ne
winds over lake superior this morning will generate waves large
enough to warrant a high swim risk for the lake superior beaches of
marquette county and a moderate swim risk for alger county beaches
today, especially during the morning. Per local guidelines, with
water temps still appearing to be under 50f and cool conditions
today (air temps in the 50s lakeside and mostly cloudy), a beach
hazards statement will not be issued. Well inland, high temps will
reach the low to mid 70s.

Clouds will begin to clear from the N and NE late this aftn into the
evening hrs, leading to a clear night tonight except for the far w
where some cloudiness will linger. Precipitable water will drop blo
a half inch over the E half of the fcst area tonight to enhance
radiational cooling potential. GFS is most aggressive with the
drying, supporting a cooler night. Sfc high pres center will still
be a bit too far NE for calm wind ideal radiational cooling. Still,
favored the low side of guidance for mins. Would not be surprised to
see a few of the traditional cold spots over the interior E half dip
blo 40f. Otherwise, 40s will be the rule tonight with lower 50s far
w.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 323 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
expect a quiet and seasonable start to the work week as high
pressure origination the hudson bay continues to dominate our
weather through Monday. Monday night into Tuesday cloud cover will
increase, along with chances for precipitation as slow moving cutoff
low gradually tracks east towards the western great lakes. The onset
of precipitation on Tuesday will depend on how stubborn the
lingering dry air is to vacate the region. With multiple lobes of
vorticity rotating about the crawling cutoff low, there will be the
potential for a couple rounds of showers, and perhaps a few rumbles
of thunder on Tuesday across much of the area. Not impressed with
the instability progged to lift across the area given the better,
deeper moisture is expected to remain south of upper michigan.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, the stacked low is progged to track
just south of the area across northeast wisconsin, and eventually
over northern lake michigan. This will focus the area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the central and east half of the area.

Depending on the speed of the wave, conditions should start to dry
out from west to east through the mid-morning mid-afternoon hours
across the area as high pressure moves into the region.

Expect Wednesday to be the last seasonable day as the warmer and
potentially more humid conditions look to return through the end of
the week and next weekend. As anticyclonic flow becomes established
across the southeast conus, troughing over the intermountain west
will slow, allowing southwest flow to develop across the central
conus. A bit lower in the atmosphere, moisture sources from the gulf
of mexico look to be open for moisture transport across the central
conus, and then even possibly a connection from the eastern pacific
later next weekend. There certainly will be the potential for
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for
heavy rain, as shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow eject
across the northern CONUS later in the week and next weekend. The
big question will be when where this precipitation will set up
across the region. Right now model guidance is much more favorable
across northern minnesota. However, as to be expected that far out,
model trends reveal that this is not a stable solution at this time.

Therefore, confidence is low in regards to when where precipitation
will track, but it is certainly a time period worth keeping an eye
on.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 1025 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
vfr conditions are expected to prevail at kiwd kcmx ksaw through
this forecast period. However, some shallow low-level moisture
present behind cold front that recently passed is resulting in
occasional lowered CIGS into ifr at ksaw that will remain possible
into the early afternoon.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 529 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
in the wake of a cold front, expect NE winds of 15-25kt over much of
lake superior early this morning. While winds will diminish over the
east half thru the day, winds will mostly remain 15-25kt over the w
half, especially far w. Then, as high pres building over northern
ontario edges closer, winds will be under 20kt tonight, but gusts
may still reach above 20kt far W toward duluth. Mon and tue, winds
may be into the 15-25kt range at times over at least portions of
lake superior as the high pres slips SE and low pres moves NE across
the plains. These stronger winds may persist until the low pres
moves E of the upper great lakes on wed.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Rolfson
long term... Ritzman
aviation... Kcw
marine... Rolfson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 4 mi86 min NE 8 51°F 1016.7 hPa47°F
45173 15 mi32 min N 7.8 46°F3 ft1016.9 hPa
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 37 mi52 min N 5.1 G 8 47°F 1017.1 hPa40°F
GRIM4 44 mi32 min N 7 G 9.9 46°F 1018.6 hPa42°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 44 mi42 min ENE 9.9 G 11 46°F 1017.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 53 mi42 min N 6 G 11 62°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI4 mi86 minNE 8 mi51°F46°F86%1016.7 hPa

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Last 24hrN6NE8NE8NE7NE7NE4NE7NE7N5CalmS3S4N5N4NW7N5N5N5NW8NW8N9N7NE8NE8
1 day agoN5N4N5N4N3N6NE5CalmCalmS4S3CalmS7S5S4CalmS4S7S5CalmNE3NE5NE5N8
2 days agoN7N7NE7NE7NE8NE7NE4N5NE3CalmCalmS3S3S5S33S4S5S5CalmS5S6S6NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.