Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 10:35 AM   Moonset 1:25 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 133 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 6 ft subsiding to 5 ft Thursday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.3 kt at 1110 pm Tuesday. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.56 kt at 1110 am Wednesday. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 2.6 kt at 1211 am Thursday. Seas 5 ft.

PZZ200 133 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure through mid-week. Gusty winds from the north through Wednesday morning. A cold front moves inland on Thursday from the northeast pacific.

FXUS66 KPQR 142203 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 303 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will maintain mostly clear, dry, and warm conditions through tomorrow (Wednesday). Expect the marine layer to return to the coast tonight. On Thursday, the ridge begins to break down as a trough pushes southeast into BC from the Gulf of Alaska. This will return slight chances for precipitation for higher terrain as well as cloud cover. The long term forecast looks mostly dry, however, weak troughing could bring slight chances of precipitation.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday...Satellite imagery as of 3 PM PDT depicts mostly clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as upper level high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures this afternoon are on track to reach the mid 70s for interior valleys and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast and higher terrain. As we cool down tonight, we'll likely see a re-development of the marine layer along the coast. Onshore flow doesn't look strong enough for the marine stratus to filter into the Willamette Valley via Coast Range gaps and the Lower Columbia River Valley. However, there could be some back-building stratus against the Cascades, particularly in the east Portland Metro Area. Locations in this area could start tomorrow morning with some cloud cover, but will quickly dissipate as daytime heating progresses.

Clear and dry conditions prevail tomorrow (Wednesday) as high pressure remains over our area. Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day of the week as models suggest the upper level ridge building to its maximum amplitude. Afternoon highs tomorrow are forecast in the upper 70s for interior valleys and upper 50s to 60s along the coast and higher terrain. NBM suggests a 30-50% chance of exceeding 80 degrees tomorrow (highest in the Portland Metro Area) within interior valleys. With this summertime pattern in place, we'll also maintain northerly to northwesterly surface winds.

On Thursday, ensemble guidance shows an upper level trough from the Gulf of Alaska progressing southeastward toward British Columbia. This weak trough will begin breaking down the ridge into more zonal upper level flow over the Pacific Northwest.
Additional cloud cover will begin filtering in to the area, leading to partly sunny skies. Thus, we'll see cooler afternoon highs for interior valleys (about 4-8 degrees cooler than Wednesday). By evening time, precipitation chances (15-35%) over higher terrain return as the upper trough quickly brushes the northern most areas of the Pacific Northwest. -Alviz



LONG TERM
Thursday Night through Monday...As the weak upper trough quickly progresses through the Pacific Northwest, the Cascades will maintain a 15-35% chance of precipitation. Snow levels will be above 6500-7500, so any snow shower activity would be well-above the Cascade passes. Friday to Saturday, WPC cluster analyses depict mostly zonal flow or weak troughing over the Pacific Northwest. This suggests that we'll be mostly dry and maintain relatively cooler high temperatures.

On Sunday, the majority of clusters suggest another trough dipping down into the Pacific Northwest from Canada. This scenario could also return a slight (15-24%) chance of precipitation over higher terrain. By early next week (Monday), some uncertainty remains with the progression of the aforementioned trough. About 60% of ensemble members suggest that the trough will continue progressing southward into the Great Basin. In this case, we would maintain more cloud cover and precipitation chances. Meanwhile, 40% of the members suggest a return to either zonal flow or ridging. If this pans out, we would return to clearer and drier conditions. -Alviz

AVIATION
High pressure continues, and VFR conditions with clear skies remain in place for most of Tuesday. Around 05z Wed, some lower level stratus clouds move inland, bringing 90% chance of MVFR cigs at coastal terminals. Slightly more cloud cover is expected at northern areas (such as KAST); around a 80% chance of IFR cigs can be expected there during this time.
Stratus clouds burn off going into Wednesday morning, with 90% confidence in return to VFR conditions by 20z Wed.

Winds will be northerly throughout the period, with somewhat breezy/gusty winds at times throughout the rest of Tuesday afternoon and evening. Coastal terminals could see gusts up to 25-30 kt up until around 08z Wed, after which winds will begin to weaken. At all inland terminals, winds should peak around 20-25 kt during this period. No LLWS expected. /JLiu

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with relatively clear skies throughout most of the TAF period, other than some light high cloud cover.
Winds will become a bit gustier going into the evening, with gusts up to 20kt possible beginning 22z Tue. These calm again going into Wednesday morning, dropping to 5-10 kt around 07z Wed. Some cloud cover backbuilding from the Cascade foothills will approach PDX, but model guidance points towards it not reaching quite far enough. Most likely outcome is continued clear skies through the night. /JLiu

MARINE
Typical summertime pattern of northerly winds as high pressure builds through mid week. Winds for the rest of this afternoon and evening will see gusts up to 30 kt possible. A few geographically isolated pockets may see one-off gusts to 35 kt, but due to how isolated this would be, a Gale Warning has not been issued. Winds will continue to barely meet Small Craft Advisory criteria each afternoon and evening until at least the weekend, as diurnal driven changes in wind continue to be the main determining factor.

In regards to seas, nothing overly remarkable as the primary swell is from the northwest, and the wind wave from the north. Wind waves will range from around 4 to 6 feet. Combined seas will be 6 to 8 ft through Tuesday, though conditions ramp up mid-week. -Muessle/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.

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Tue -- 02:25 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM PDT     8.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:34 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:51 PM PDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:36 PM PDT     8.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naselle River, 4 miles above swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

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Click for Map
Tue -- 12:49 AM PDT     4.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:41 AM PDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
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Tue -- 08:27 PM PDT     7.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:42 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paradise Point, Long Island, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

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