Thursday, November23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Packwood, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday November 23, 2017 7:54 PM PST (03:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:24AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 300 Pm Pst Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing late. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding late. A chance of showers.
Fri..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..SE wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S wind to 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..Light wind becoming S to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 300 Pm Pst Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow behind a front will decrease Friday morning. The next front will stall off vancouver island Friday with southerly winds increasing over the coastal waters Friday afternoon. A stronger system will impact the area on Saturday night into Sunday with gales possible.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Packwood, WA
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location: 46.39, -121.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 232242
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
242 pm pst Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis A series of fronts will continue periods of wet weather
into next week. Snow levels will remain above the cascade passes
today, then lower to near the cascade passes tonight, but with light
precipitation. There is a better chance for snow to impact the passes
Sunday and Monday.

Short term Tonight through Sunday... Rain continues across sw
washington and NW oregon this afternoon as a cold front moves across
the region. Satellite imagery shows the back end of the front just
about to reach the SW washington coast. Open-cell cumulus over the ne
pacific indicate colder and more unstable air will follow the front.

Snow levels will lower later this afternoon through tonight behind
the front, and likely reach the cascade passes.

Showers will accompany the colder air, but satellite derived
precipitable water values drop behind the front, and suggests that
the showers will not generate significant precipitation. Rain totals
behind the front will generally be less than 0.20 inch tonight
through Friday morning which may materialize to spotty 1 to 2 inches
of snow near or above 4500 feet. Showers will decrease Friday and be
limited to SW washington and extreme NW oregon coast late Friday

The grays river at rosburg is receding, but at a slightly slower rate
than the current forecast. The river will likely remain above flood
level a few hours beyond the current forecast time of 5 pm. We will
further analyze and modify the forecast for this river later this

Have reduced the probability of precipitation for Saturday morning as
the models have slowed the progress of the next system which will
approach from the south west. A warm front will produce rain late
Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon. Snow levels will rise
above the cascade passes Saturday afternoon and evening. Models are
still not in agreement on the strength and track of the low
associated with this frontal system, which continues to challenge the
wind forecast. However, there is a chance that there could be a burst
of gusty winds along the coast and coastal mountains as the low moves
north along the coast Saturday evening.

The cold front will move across the area overnight Sunday morning,
with the snow levels lowering back down to the cascade passes behind
it in the afternoon. ~tj

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... A colder upper level
trough will support snow levels staying near the cascade passes with
showers over the region Sunday night and Monday. The models
vary on how quickly the upper trough will move east, but generally
agree that an upper ridge will replace the upper trough Monday night.

As Monday's upper trough advances into the great basin and plains,
models remain in reasonable agreement and suggest rising heights
across the pacific northwest into Tuesday. This may bring a bit of a
break in the precipitation, though there is some hint that the
northern extent of the forecast area (primarily north of a tillamook
to mt. Hood line) may be clipped by a front associated with a low
moving into central b.C. As a result, have lowered pops across the
southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area. Models then
diverge more significantly as we move into the second half of next
week, so have held the forecast closer to climatological normals.


Aviation Back-side of the surface front is moving onto the
coast right now, with improving conditions along the coast behind
the front. Inland has gone predominantlyVFR as well this
afternoon. PredominantlyVFR conditions should continue through
early this evening as clouds start breaking up behind the front.

With clearing skies comes the threat for fog or low stratus
tonight across our area. Will likely see a mix of low
MVFR ifr lifr conditions develop around 06-08z across the area.

This mix of conditions will likely persist through midday Friday,
only starting to break up in the early afternoon.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions this afternoon and early
evening. Will see clouds start to break up a bit this evening as
the back-side of the front moves through. With clouds breaking
up, will see a good chance for fog or low stratus to develop
tonight after 06z. Low MVFR ifr conditions to persist through
most of Friday morning, not lifting until around 21z. -mccoy

Marine Relatively benign conditions to continue through
Friday. A broad area of low pressure remains offshore, keeping a
strong enough gradient for gusts to 25 kt and will likely keep
seas up around 10 ft out near buoy 89 and in our northern outer
waters (beyond 10 nm from the coast north of cascade head). Seas
have generally subsided to 7 to 9 ft today and will remain around
7 to 9 ft except for aforementioned seas getting back up to
around 10 ft out near buoy 89.

The next system we focused the most on today is the system coming
in on Saturday night. Have issued a gale watch for as models are
growing more confident in a strong system Saturday night into
early Sunday. There is some chance for storm force winds with
this system as well, but right now much more confident in at
least gale force southerly winds with this system. With this,
seas will build fairly quickly on Saturday, getting up near 20
ft in the evening and persisting in the upper teens or near 20 ft
through much of Sunday morning.

The next time period to watch will be Sunday night as another
system moves through, but there is large differences in the
models on the track of this Sunday system. For now, went with a
blend of the GFS and the ECMWF and kept with the trend of
much weaker winds with the system on Sunday. Seas should be
gradually coming down as well.

Another weaker system looks to move through on Monday night, but
Tuesday and beyond looks to be much more tranquil weather as
high pres builds over the region. If trends continue, could see
northerly winds 10 to 15 kt for good part of next week. But seas
will vary, due to various swell fetches arriving next week.


Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pst Friday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 pm
this afternoon to 10 pm pst this evening.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 75 mi55 min 50°F 52°F1014.1 hPa (+1.3)
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 76 mi55 min S 8 G 14
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 76 mi55 min 50°F1016.1 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Kalama, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Thu -- 02:55 AM PST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST     7.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:27 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:57 PM PST     3.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:22 PM PST     8.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:04 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Saint Helens, Columbia River, Oregon
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Saint Helens
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:58 AM PST     1.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM PST     2.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:27 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:05 PM PST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:06 PM PST     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:04 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.