Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Naselle, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:01PM Friday January 19, 2018 3:18 PM PST (23:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 7:52PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 228 Pm Pst Fri Jan 19 2018
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through Saturday afternoon...
In the main channel..Combined seas around 15 ft this morning subsiding to 11 ft by Sat afternoon. However, seas will temporarily build to 17 ft with breakers likely during the ebb around 6 pm this evening. Seas to 15 ft with breakers possible can be expected with the ebb around 645 am Sat.
PZZ200 228 Pm Pst Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak high pressure will be over the waters tonight. A warm front associated with the next low pressure system moves through the waters Saturday. A strong trailing cold front impacts the area late Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is high potential for storm force wind gusts late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Another round of gale force wind can be expected Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naselle, WA
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location: 46.39, -123.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 192122
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
125 pm pst Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis An upper level trough of low pressure will move across
the pacific NW tonight, keeping the region in a cool and showery air
mass. A weak ridge of high pressure Saturday will temporarily
decrease the showers, but then another system arrives Sunday for
more rain and mountain snow. An active weather pattern continues
next week, and it looks like snow levels will dip down into the
lower foothills in the latter half of the week.

Short term Tonight through Monday... Radar and satellite showing
increased showers offshore, ahead of the trough nearing 127w.

Showers to continue overnight as the trough moves across. Onshore
flow continues Sat but under some upper level ridging, which will
lead to a decrease in shower coverage, with best pops in
orographically favored SW facing terrain. This will result in
accumulating snow over the cascades, but expected to generally
remain under advisory criteria.

Another upper trough moves in Sat night and sun, accompanied by a
cold front. This system looks a little more dynamic, with 850 mb
winds in the GFS reaching 70 kts just ahead of the front, and nam
showing 60 kt sustained winds as low as 975 mb. High wind watch for
the coast continues to look reasonable late Sat night into early
sun. Good moisture in the low to mid levels seen in model time-
height cross sections coupled with the dynamics suggest categorical
pops in order as the front moves through sun. With snow levels
expected to remain below pass levels, should see another shot of
snow in the cascades with the front sun. At this point it doesn't
look like any kind of watch is needed, but snowfall may ultimately
necessitate a winter weather advisory for part of the cascades, most
likely the south wa cascades where both dynamics and orographics
are likely to be most favorable.

Zonal flow aloft continues Sun night and mon, but with weakening
onshore flow and only weak shortwave activity. This will keep a
decent chance for showers going through mon, with mountains again
most favored due to orographics.

Long term Monday night through Friday... Active weather continues
into the start of the week, with coast valley rain and mountain
snow. Temps still above freezing, except for higher elevations.

Freezing levels looking to rise in the beginning of the week, then
lowering back around 2,000 ft. Continued precipitation will cause
rivers to rise. -42

Aviation Unstable air mass remains over the forecast area this
afternoon, which has resulted in a mix of MVFR toVFR. Little
change in overall conditions through about 00z sat. Expect
increasing MVFR coverage and duration after 00z as another
surface trough moves into the area. Areas of ifr develop in the
interior valleys around 12z sat. General improvement to moreVFR
after 18z sat.

Pdx and approaches... Expect primarilyVFR at the terminal and
vicinity through 12z sat. However, there is a 40 to 50 percent
chance of brief MVFR through this evening. The odds for MVFR
increase slightly after 03z Sat as a surface trough moves across
the area. Weishaar

Marine A 992 mb low pres center was near buoy 46207 at 21z.

Early afternoon buoy reports continue to indicate solid small
craft advisory wind speeds with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind speeds
ease a little tonight, likely falling just under small craft
advisory levels by 12z. The next significant system will move
through the waters late Sat night and Sun morning. The 12z nam,
gfs and the 12z ECMWF are fairly similar showing 40-45 kt
boundary layer (0-1 km mean wind for the ecmwf) 06z sun. The gfs
indicates a narrow band of 45-55 kt boundary layer wind 12z sun.

The 12z NAM is a little weaker with its boundary layer wind
forecast 12z sun, but still indicates low-end storm force speeds.

The NAM also shows a small core of 60 kt 975 mb wind speeds
at 12z between 20 and 40 nm offshore. This system will be a
fast-mover, with about 6-9 hrs of storm force potential. Will
need to consider the possibility of a coastal jet with this
system.

Wind speeds settle down Sun afternoon into the first part of next
week. There is the possibility additional gales tue. The ecmwf
and GFS show differing timing and strength with this system. The
gfs indicates a 995 mb low over the far N washington waters 06z
wed, while the ECMWF has the low north of vancouver island. Will
go with lower end gale force wind for now. Much larger model
differences exist late in the week and have trended toward the
ecmwf.

Seas will ease to the mid-teens by this evening. Seas hold around
15 feet late tonight through Sat evening, but will build again
late Sat night and Sun morning with the next strong system. There
is the potential for combined seas to peak near 25 ft Sun morning.

The dominant period will be shorter than this last evening, around
12 to 13 seconds, but guidance is suggesting a mixed swell situation.

This will lead to very choppy and rough conditions. Models show a
dynamic fetch is likely. Thus, have gone slightly higher than
the current model forecast. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
for central oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... High wind watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
for south washington coast.

Pz... Storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm pst Saturday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 pm
pst Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 13 mi48 min S 8.9 G 13 45°F 43°F1012.8 hPa
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 23 mi48 min SW 11 G 18 47°F 49°F1011.9 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 38 mi88 min SW 19 G 25 49°F 51°F16 ft1011.9 hPa (+0.0)43°F
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 38 mi48 min WSW 18 G 23 46°F 50°F1011 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 39 mi48 min 50°F16 ft
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 46 mi53 min 51°F16 ft

Wind History for Astoria, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G28

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR16 mi23 minSSW 9 G 207.00 miLight Rain46°F42°F86%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12S9SW9S12
G17
SE8SE7SE8SE8SE6SE7E6SE5SE8SE6S8SE8S4SE8S8S8S14
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1 day agoS21
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2 days ago--S5CalmE6E5SE3SE6SE3E7SE8SE6SE6SE7SE7SE5E5SE6S103SE11
G20
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G39

Tide / Current Tables for Naselle River, 4 miles above swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Naselle River
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:49 AM PST     10.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:20 AM PST     3.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:20 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:03 PM PST     11.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:01 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:51 PM PST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.96.38.49.810.19.47.85.94.33.33.54.979.210.711.410.99.374.42.10.4-00.8

Tide / Current Tables for Paradise Point, Long Island, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Paradise Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:43 AM PST     10.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:04 AM PST     4.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:00 PM PST     11.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:01 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:52 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:31 PM PST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.27.18.81010.29.47.96.24.844.66.48.29.710.711.110.696.74.22.20.80.82.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.