Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chatham, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday September 20, 2018 3:22 AM EDT (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:03PMMoonset 1:46AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LSZ249 739 pm edt Sat sep 1 2018 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore... Marquette to munising mi... Munising to grand marais mi... At 738 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located near au train island, or 7 nm west of grand island, moving east at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Miners castle, grand island and au train island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4658 8625 4653 8642 4644 8655 4645 8664 4644 8665 4645 8667 4642 8694 4667 8693 4667 8624
LSZ249 Expires:201809020045;;988741 FZUS73 KMQT 012339 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 739 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2018 LSZ249-250-266-020045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chatham, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 46.43, -86.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmqt 200552
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
152 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 353 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Strong storms and heavy rain possible especially late on thu...

pattern getting active with possible showers t-storms and heavy rain
through Thu aftn as troughing over western CONUS presses toward
upper great lakes. At the sfc, low pressure over the plains is
expected to lift toward western lake superior late on Thu while
deepening. Associated warm front which is still very far south from
northern ia into northern il will gradually lift toward northern wi
on Thursday aftn as the low moves into our area. Drizzle light rain
with less than 0.25 inch of rain affect upper michigan this evening
and overnight as a bit of shortwave energy combines with right
entrance of jet streak. Later this evening, expect new round of
showers t-storms to spread across southern half of mn and wi on nose
of strong moisture transport and gradient of elevated mucape. Some
of that activity could clip menominee county late tonight.

As warm front lifts toward northern wi on Thu aftn, forecast gets
murky. First, expect a lot of low clouds to north of warm front
along with east to southeast winds so lowered temps some. Though may
see some patchy light rain drizzle into early aftn, expect greater
chances of more significant showers t-storms to not arrive until
late Thu aftn or even Thu evening. As it has looked like for many
days, effective shear present on Thu aftn into Thu evening is strong
with over 50 kts likely. With all the low clouds though, not sure if
there will be much if any instability around most of the aftn. Based
on 0-6 1-6km CAPE and effective shear may see strong t-storms
develop over wi and lift into upper michigan toward evening. If t-
storms can develop farther north into southern upper michigan during
the aftn would not take much instability to bring down the stronger
winds aloft. Day2 SPC outlook indicates enhanced risk into far
scntrl. Not sure on the coverage, but if discrete supercells can
develop into that area, they certainly could produce damaging winds
given the strong dynamics strong winds aloft. Heavy downpours would
also be possible, but the primary heavy rain hazard likely will hold
off til Thu night.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 405 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
ridging significant positive 500mb height anomalies extending from
the aleutians toward the north pole are still expected to migrate e
over the next 7-10 days with the main anomaly reaching the gulf of
alaska by the middle of next week and then far western canada by the
end of the week. This will support continued troffing vcnty of the
canadian coast pacific NW into the weekend before the progressing
ridge shifts the troffing downstream to central N america. Looks
like an amplified western N america ridge and central to eastern n
america trof may be in offing in the 7-14 day period, which suggests
there may be one or two shots of cold air well blo normal temps
toward the end of the month into the first week of oct. Until then,
temps will not stray too far from typical late sept readings, but
there will be a couple of exceptions. Shortwave trof currently along
the W coast will shift e, crossing the upper lakes on fri. Rather
strong caa, resulting in falling temps, will lead to chilly blustery
conditions spreading NW to SE during the day fri. Temps over the
weekend will be a little blo normal. Trof swinging across the
pacific NW this weekend will reach the northern plains mon. Waa
ahead of this feature will bring a brief warmup for mon. Temps will
then fall back to around normal or a little blo normal Tue Wed in
the wake of the passing trof. As for pcpn, under passing trof on
fri, expect some -shra which will have a lake component given the
chilly air mass spreading over the area. Sat still looks dry, then a
cold front will drop across the area Sat night, perhaps accompanied
by a few shra. Trof swinging across the pacific NW this weekend will
reach the upper lakes on tue, bringing the next better chc of shra
mon night into early Tue as cold front passes. With progressive
nature, potential of mdt to hvy rainfall is more diminished with
this feature than it appeared yesterday. Under developing trof over
central N america there may some -shra at times Tue wed, and
depending on how cold the air is settling over the area behind the
cold front tue, there may be some lake aided -shra as well.

Beginning Thu night... Shortwave trof will be approaching from the
central and northern plains with associated, deepening sfc low
quickly tracking from near the twin cities in the evening, then
along the western shore of upper mi during the night to just NE of
lake superior by 12z fri. Low-level jet is fcst to increase to 60 to
possibly as high as 70kt as it translates into the upper lakes
during the evening. As would be expected, moisture transport is very
strong. Precipitable water is still fcst to surge toward 2 inches,
nearing record territory for sept, and freezing levels will be high
up around 12kft, increasing warm rain processes. So, conditions are
still very favorable for hvy rainfall. Based on sfc low track and
best overlap of 850 and 700mb moisture transport, western upper mi
should be the area favored for heaviest rainfall and greatest
coverage of hvy rain. Fortunately, this system is very progressive
which will keep rain totals more in check than what they could be.

Shifting axis of strong moisture transport will support hvy rainfall
potential eastward, but it should be more transient than over the
far w. For the thu-thu night time period, likely looking at
widespread rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.5 inches, lowest e, with 2 to
locally 3 inch totals possible far w. If sufficient instability
builds NE into upper mi E of the low track, deep layer of shear of
50+kt will support a risk of svr storms into central upper mi in the
evening along ahead of cold front. There is some question whether
sufficient instability will build NE into the area, and front will
be crossing during the night, so right now it appears instability
may be hindered. In addition, nam GFS fcst soundings maintain a
fairly strong sfc based inversion until cold fropa. Even so, with
the aforementioned 60+kt low-level jet, cells with hvy rainfall
could bring some of this wind to the sfc.

Mdt hvy rainfall will quickly shift N and E Thu night, and then
heading thru fri, sharply cyclonic flow associated 850mb trof
passage and 850mb temps falling toward 0c will result in lingering
-shra which will take on an increasing lake component as air mass
cools under brisk NW to nnw low-level flow. These -shra will end w
to E Fri aftn into early Fri evening. Will be a chilly, blustery day
fri, typical of passing fall storm systems. The fairly strong caa
and favorable orientation of incoming pres rises will enhance
winds gusts. Expect gusts 20-30mph with locations exposed to nw-nnw
winds along lake superior likely gusting to 35-40mph for a time.

Temps will fall thru the day with the W and N central down into the
mid 40s to around 50f during the aftn.

Passing sfc high pres Fri night will set the stage for a chilly
night, and precipitable water falling down to around one-third of an
inch will enhance the cooling potential. Only concern is clouds.

With 850mb temps around 0c, stratocu will linger off lake superior
until winds shift offshore, and that shift to offshore will happen w
to E thru the night. So, all locations should get at least a few hrs
of mainly clear skies before sunrise with shortest time e. Leaned
forecast toward the lower side of guidance. Will probably see a
widespread frost across the interior of W and central upper mi.

Sat still looks dry at this point as sfc high pres departs, and then
a shortwave moving across northern ontario Sat night will push a
cold front thru the area. There may be a few -shra Sat night as this
front passes.

Developing WAA pattern across the plains toward the upper
mississippi valley on Sun in advance of shortwave trof moving to the
northern rockies combined with right entrance of upper jet over
northern ontario will generate shra along the u.S. Canadian border.

Some of these shra my streak toward the keweenaw during the day sun.

Medium range models have moved toward much better agreement early
next week with regard to a shortwave trof moving from the pacific nw
early Sun to the upper great lakes early Tue with associated cold
fropa from late Mon night thru tue. Expect a period of shra late mon
to early Tue with this feature.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 150 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
expect mainly ifr lifr CIGS through the forecast period with
abundant low level moisture to the north of a slowly advancing warm
front. The best chance for thunderstorms will remain over southern
portions of upper michigan through mid afternoon Thursday. However,
heavier rain with embedded thunder may develop late Thursday
afternoon that may produce isolated strong gusty winds. Confidence
in tsra coverage timing is still too low for inclusion in the taf.

Tonight expect strong low-level wind shear to develop as a 50-60
knot low-level jet screams across the upper great lakes.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 353 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
active period on lake superior with first gales of the fall season.

Low pressure lifting toward upper great lakes will track across
western lake superior Thu night and to quebec on Fri while
deepening. Looks like a two part gale event. First, expect northeast
winds on western lake superior to ramp up to gales 35-40 kts thu
aftn into overnight hours Thu night. Gale warning has been issued
this aftn for that first gale. Then as the low lifts north and east
of lake superior on fri, northwest gales will develop over
especially central and eastern portions of the lake. Gale watch
remains in effect for these northwest gales. Winds diminish briefly
below 20 kts on Fri night, then southwest winds increase to 30 kts
on Sat before shifting to the north and east on Sat night. East to
southeast winds 20-30 kts continue Sun into Mon with stronger winds
over west half of lake on Sun and over the east half of the lake on
mon.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

gale watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for lsz250-
251-267.

Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
lsz243>245-248-249-265-266.

Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
lsz162-263.

Gale warning from 5 pm edt 4 pm cdt this afternoon to 2 am edt
1 am cdt Friday for lsz162-263.

Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for lsz264.

Lake michigan...

gale watch from this evening through Friday evening for lmz221-
248-250.

Short term... Jla
long term... Rolfson
aviation... Jlb ritzman
marine... Jla


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP53 10 mi26 min Calm 58°F 1019 hPa55°F
MCGM4 - 9099018 - Marquette C.G., MI 30 mi40 min Calm G 1 55°F 1018 hPa54°F
GRIM4 36 mi22 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 56°F 1019 hPa56°F
GR4 - Grand Marais, MI 49 mi42 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 59°F 1020 hPa
BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI 54 mi42 min SSW 1 G 1.9 56°F 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Marquette C.G., MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
NW2
W3
W4
G7
--
--
S1
SW4
S4
S1
E2
E4
SE3
E5
G8
E5
--
NE3
E7
SE6
SE2
--
E2
SE2
E2
E1
1 day
ago
N4
G9
N2
G10
NW2
G10
NW5
NW3
G6
E3
G7
N1
G4
N2
G6
E3
E3
NE1
G4
N3
G8
N4
G8
N6
G12
N2
G8
N6
G9
N4
G9
N7
G10
N3
G9
NW3
G7
N4
G7
N2
G5
N3
E4
G8
2 days
ago
SW14
G19
SW12
G17
SW11
G17
SW12
G22
SW8
G14
SW10
G16
W3
G12
W3
G7
NE1
G6
NW6
G14
N9
G17
N7
G19
N7
G16
N7
G13
NW4
G10
N6
G12
N5
G9
N5
G10
N3
G10
N5
G9
N5
G10
N6
G11
N2
G6

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Munising - Munising Lakeshore Observation, MI10 mi26 minN 0 mi58°F55°F90%1019 hPa

Wind History from P53 (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrCalmS3S3S3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmNE4NE3NE6NE8N3SE4CalmNE6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE14N12N10N9N9N7N10N9N10N9NW10NW8NW7NW10N9N9N8N12N12N8N9N7NW6NW5
2 days agoS3S8S7
G17
SW9
G16
S8SW10
G17
SW8
G18
SW9SW4N7N11N7N12
G20
N18N16N12N16
G21
N13N11N14N12N11N14N15

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.