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marine weather statement national weather service gaylord mi 1017 am edt Tue apr 30 2024
lsz321-322-301515- 1017 am edt Tue apr 30 2024
.the st. Mary's river has been reopened to vessel navigation - .
the united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st. Mary's river to navigation.
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lat - .lon 4645 8448 4653 8413 4624 8411 4606 8396 4612 8363 4599 8344 4593 8363 4594 8362 4594 8379 4593 8378 4599 8388 4596 8400 4613 8415 4619 8434 4631 8427 4645 8435 4636 8456 4643 8466 4646 8489 4654 8465

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FXUS63 KAPX 050145 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 945 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.

- High pressure Sunday with low chances for potential frost Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region Tuesday night.

UPDATE
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Cold front will continue to work its way east across the area tonight, exiting stage right during the early morning hours.
Moisture advection right along this front will drive an area of showers into the region, ending from the west as we head through the overnight hours. Just enough elevated instability to perhaps support a few rumbles of thunder, but definitely nothing too impactful expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified ridging will gradually fold over New England through tonight as troughing lifts across the far northern Great Lakes and southeast Canada this weekend. Forcing providing by said troughing will support a weak cyclone that will quickly progress across the Great Lakes tonight. Further upstream, ridging sliding from the Rockies over the northern Great Plains will build high pressure across most of the central CONUS on Sunday, eventually nosing into the Great Lakes by Sunday evening.

Forecast Details:

Showers and a few storms tonight -- Warm weather with mostly/partly sunny skies will continue across much of the area through this afternoon before clouds begin to spread from west to east this evening ahead of the aforementioned system. Rain chances move into northwest lower/eastern upper after 00Z/8 PM EDT -- bust most likely to arrive around 03Z/11 PM EDT. As previous forecaster noted, showers are anticipated along and slightly behind the cold front as it slides across the area late this evening and overnight.
Any activity along the boundary will have some buoyancy (~500 J/kg MUCAPE) and relatively weak effective layer shear (25-30kts) to work with, making severe chances unlikely.
However, a few thunderstorms will be possible overnight with small hail and gusty winds being the primary threats should any stronger storms sustain themselves. Otherwise, showers/storms move out Sunday morning, making for a quiet end to the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s with Sunday highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s are expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow pattern over North America will continue to bring a chaotic pattern of shower/storms at times for the entirety of the long term period. Midlevel ridging currently over the northern Rockies will breifly return quiet weather to the Great Lakes ahead of upstream troughing.

Aformentioned trough axis will be centered over the upper midwest at start of the forecast period. Dry and quiet weather will persist Monday and most of Tuesday. Upstream troughing will slowly progress from the northern Rockies to the east coast during the entire long term period. Showers and thunderstorms will continue at times during the work week, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday as a boundary pushes across the Great Lakes region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

High pressure starts the long term off with quiet weather: The long term forecast starts out dry. High pressure will continue precipitation free weather Monday and most of Tuesday. Clear skies overnight Sunday could allow temperatures to rapidly drop across interior parts of northern lower that could result in some patchy frost. Fire weather potential on Monday remains a concern as sinking air could cause RH's to drop to near critical levels, but low winds should be able to prevent any headline concerns at this time.

Growing potential of strong thunderstorms across the region Tuesday night: Focus of the long term period remains on Tuesday night into Wednesday. A warm front advecting north of the boarder will saturate the CWA pushing dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Potential energy for severe storms across the region continue to grow as SPC places the southern parts of Michigan under a 15% probability of severe weather for day 4.
Still a little too far out to specify impacts to the CWA, but will continue to monitor the severity of the event Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Embedded troughs and height disturbances will continue periods of rain and thunderstorms for the rest of the work week, especially this Thursday as weak surface low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region. No impactful weather is expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to move in late this evening and overnight, accompanying chances for rain showers into Sunday morning. VFR conditions are anticipated across all TAF sites by early Sunday afternoon. Post cold front northwest winds will become a touch gusty Sunday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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