Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 8:08AM||Sunset 5:30PM||Thursday January 24, 2019 6:45 AM EST (11:45 UTC)||Moonrise 10:08PM||Moonset 10:30AM||Illumination 87%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kapx 241133|
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
633 am est Thu jan 24 2019
Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
Winter storm has passed, time for the lake effect machine...
high impact weather potential: accumulating lake effect snow across
the snowbelts to end the work week.
Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight composite analysis features
broad long wave troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the
conus. Shearing short-wave trough is progressing through the western
great lakes early this morning and has brought about a flare-up of
lake induced enhanced snow to northern lower michigan. At the
surface, departing surface low is across the ontario quebec
border with attendant cold front stretching south through the
appalachians. Sharp lake aggregate surface troughing extends back
along the north shore of the u.P. With some northerly flow lake
effect impacting parts of the u.P.
Further upstream, another short-wave trough is making it's way
through south central canada in the northern plains. Weak surface
reflection is over SW ontario with a true arctic cold front
extending down through the upper midwest. Colder air has is
horseshoeing it's way around the great lakes, slowed by the great
lakes heat plume. Really cold upstream air is on it's way.
Primary forecast concerns: snow accumulations and headlines as
lake effect snow machine kicks into high gear.
Lead short-wave trough slides east of the region this morning with
a brief interlude of subsidence drier air lowering inversion
heights and downtick in lake induced snows this morning. Thus a
relatively quiet start to the day.
But... Things will go downhill quickly as we get into the afternoon
and particularly tonight. Upstream short-wave trough surface
reflection and sharp arctic boundary will slide through the
region through the afternoon early evening with arctic air then
collapsing into northern michigan tonight. As typically the case,
we will probably have a decent burst of lake enhanced synoptic
snowfall along the sharp boundary as it moves through, which will
bring nearly all areas some snowfall, although better snow
accumulations will be across parts of eastern michigan as well as
northwest lower michigan with enhancement off the lakes and
Behind the front, lake effect conditions improve dramatically as
temperatures plunge inversion heights are nearly erased and
lake-h8 delta TS climb well into the 20s. Bufkit forecast
soundings show equilibrium levels up over 12k feet and lake
induced CAPE values climbing up over 750 j kg as we go through the
night, all supportive of a period of heavy lake effect snow later
this evening and overnight.
Right now it appears that areas right around grand traverse bay
get the best synoptic lake effect accumulations through tonight
as winds veer sharply nnw behind the front. Lighter snow
accumulations elsewhere, although with the anticipated burst of
snow along the front and gusty winds lake effect that follows,
many areas will end up with impactful winter weather.
As far as headlines are concerned, snow accumulations will likely
flirt with warning criteria across leelanau benzie and grand
traverse counties with the combination of snowfall this afternoon
and lake effect focusing into that area tonight. Combined with
gusty winds blowing snow developing later tonight, plan on
upgrading those counties to a warning. Will keep the rest of the
already issued advisories intact and add a few more counties into
the mix, again for the combination of snow showers gusty winds
and blowing snow.
Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
Brutal cold with chances for snow...
high impact weather potential: wintry travel and extreme cold into
Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperatures and snowfall
through the period.
Pattern synopsis forecast... A deep upper trough will dig into the
region Friday and become anchored over the great lakes and upper
midwest through the weekend. Mid level temperatures in this pattern
will quickly plummet to around -24c Friday and Saturday, which will
generate well below normal temperatures. Daytime highs will only be
in the single digits and overnight lows will near 10 below zero
across all of northern michigan through the weekend. The cold
temperatures will be further heightened Thursday into Friday
afternoon as northwest winds 15 to 25 mph generate well below zero
wind chill readings across all of northern michigan.
There will be several chances for snow heading into the weekend as
cyclonic flow lingers over the great lakes Friday on the backside of
a system exiting the eastern great lakes, before a second feature
drops into the state to begin the weekend. The most persistent snows
and most significant amounts will in favored snow belts of lake
michigan and lake superior through the period.
Highest snowfall amounts appears to be Friday night and early
Saturday as model soundings show northwest 925-850mb winds trending
west Friday afternoon and remaining nearly steady west into Saturday
morning. 925-850mb winds slowly trend southwest Saturday afternoon
in advance of the next clipper dropping into the state. Inversion
heights through the period will be around 7k to 9k ft. However
snowfall amounts will become hindered Saturday as the entire
vertical temp column cools to temps between temps of -15c and -23c.
Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
a wintry period to continue across the great lakes with well below
normal temperatures, along with several chances for snow. A 500mb
trough will dig into the great lakes over the weekend, forcing mid
lvl temps to fall to brutally cold readings near -32c Sunday, which
will keep daytime highs in the single digits. Temps remain below
normal across northern michigan to begin the work week before the
coldest air of the season floods into the region Wed and Thursday
(mid lvl temps falling to around -34c). There will be several rounds
of snow over northern michigan during the period, as a system pushes
over the state Sunday before a second system affects the region
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 632 am est Thu jan 24 2019
MVFR conditions dominate across northern lower michigan for much
of today. Arctic cold front will slide through the region this
afternoon evening. Burst of heavier snow will accompany the front
and likely bring a period of ifr conditions to the terminal sites.
Lake effect snows follow heading into tonight with the main focus
into tvc and mbl.
Issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
gusty winds develop across the region late this afternoon and
tonight across much of the nearshore areas. Plan to hoist small
craft advisory headlines for most areas.
Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 7 pm est Friday for
Winter storm warning from noon today to 11 am est Friday for
Lh... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Friday for lhz345-
Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 6 pm est Friday
Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Friday for lmz345-346.
Near term... Ba
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI||2 mi||28 min||E 4.1 G 5.1||13°F||1003.9 hPa|
|SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI||4 mi||28 min||E 4.1 G 5.1||16°F||33°F||1002.6 hPa|
|WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI||13 mi||28 min||WNW 2.9 G 2.9||1003.6 hPa|
|RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI||15 mi||28 min||WNW 1.9 G 2.9||1004 hPa|
|PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI||17 mi||28 min||W 1.9 G 1.9||15°F||1003.8 hPa||8°F|
|DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI||39 mi||28 min||NW 2.9 G 5.1||15°F||35°F||1003.4 hPa||13°F|
|WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI||40 mi||66 min||ESE 5.1 G 6||20°F||1003.7 hPa|
Wind History for Little Rapids, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Sault Ste. Marie, MI||3 mi||51 min||NE 3||10.00 mi||Overcast||18°F||14°F||84%||1004.5 hPa|
|Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI||16 mi||50 min||NE 4||10.00 mi||Overcast||16°F||12°F||88%||1006.2 hPa|
Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||E||E||E||E|
|2 days ago||SW||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||W||W||Calm||E||S||SE||Calm||E||E||E||E||E||E||E||E||E |
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EDIT (on/off)  Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images(on/off)  HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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