Tuesday, April23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sault Ste. Marie, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:36PM Tuesday April 23, 2019 7:14 AM EDT (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ322 755 Am Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation... The united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Dense fog was reducing visibilities to below 1 mile. Reduce your speed, and keep a lookout for other vessels, buoys, and breakwaters. Keep your navigation lights on. If not equipped with radar, you should consider seeking safe harbor. && lat...lon 4647 8412 4637 8414 4619 8408 4606 8395 4612 8382 4611 8378 4597 8392 4596 8400 4612 8417 4612 8423 4622 8437 4628 8430 4643 8436 4635 8456 4643 8468 4651 8462 4645 8448 4650 8442 4649 8427 4653 8422
LSZ322 Expires:201812161400;;879615 FZUS73 KAPX 161255 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 755 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2018 LSZ322-161400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI
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location: 46.46, -84.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231052
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
652 am edt Tue apr 23 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 200 am edt Tue apr 23 2019
high impact weather: minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a shortwave trough was moving through the western great lakes early
this morning, with an associated sfc low pressure over lake
michigan, running along quasi-stationary frontal zone stretched
across far NRN lower and through NRN lake huron. Although not
exceptionally moist, pwats were around just over an inch, while deep
layer forcing is maximized over NRN michigan. Dpva upper divergence
and WAA were all occurring underneath a relatively unstable
atmosphere of 850-500mb lapse rates of 6.5c km. Mucapes are less
than anticipated, with only a few hundred j kg or so. This has
resulted in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms sweeping
across our neck of the woods. Drier air seen upstream, associated
with a high pressure ridge axis that extends from st. James bay,
through mn and into central plains.

The aforementioned forcing, sfc low and associated showers and
rumbles of thunder will depart the region through the morning, with
much cooler air and gusty NW winds sweeping into NRN michigan.

Temperatures will start off rather mild across NE lower, with
readings in the lower half of the 50s, but low to mid 40s and
increasingly drier air settling in through the day. The drier air
deepens through the night while higher pressure moves in directly
overhead.

Skies are expected to gradually turn more sunny through the day
while remaining gusty, with shallow cumulus likely this afternoon.

As the drier air deepens, am expecting this cumulus to fade into the
evening, and only some higher level cirrus passing through
overnight. Winds will be dying off through the night as well as the
higher pressure moves in. Lows tonight will be in the upper half of
the 20s to the lower half of the 30s.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 200 am edt Tue apr 23 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Wednesday, the high moves out of the
region and a shortwave clipper system begins to move into the
region. The day itself looks to remain dry, although the GFS brings
the shortwave in soon enough for rain in E upper. The rain looks to
hold off until 09z Thu based on the ecwmf and the GFS now as a
shortwave trough at 500 mb pushes into the upper great lakes, along
a weak front inverted sfc trough moving through N lower. The 500 mb
trough associated with this system pushes through by 06z Fri as dry
air gets into the region. However, between 06z Fri and 12z fri,
another shortwave, a part of a larger cut off low near hudson bay,
which would produce some showers by 12z into lower michigan.

Primary forecast concerns... This has become a fairly progressive
pattern with shortwaves moving through the 500 mb. The main issues
with it has been how far south the shortwaves get, and whether the
rain will or other precipitation will make it into E upper and n
lower. Amounts don't look out of hand.

Also with the loss of snow cover, the dry days have been trending
very dry with relative humidity levels below 25%. Wednesday looks
like it will be such a day, with the GFS and ECMWF tending to have
ample amounts of dry air to mix down. GFS and ECMWF have a tendency
to run too high on dewpoints, and too low on sfc temperatures,
during this time of year. This leads to artificially high rh values
during the afternoon, in the sandy areas of NE and NW lower.

Wednesday looks to have min rh values of 20-25% near the huron
forest. There is a small chance for the rh values to drop below 20%,
but with this pattern think that depending on how fast and how deep
the mixing actually gets, that a slightly higher rh is possible.

Will leave this, as it seems this is most likely at this time.

However, temperatures and winds won't reach critical thresholds, so
won't issue any elevated fire danger mentions in the hwoapx or an
graphics, unless land management agencies think they are warranted.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 200 am edt Tue apr 23 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Extended (Friday through Monday)... Friday, models are starting to
show the chance for showers as 850 mb temperatures fall to -5c to
-6c. This is showing some instabilty for rain showers. Friday night
now looks like it is dry on both of the models. It remains dry
through Saturday morning (18z sat). Then a fast moving
shortwave clipper system, moves through indiana, and produces rain
up to m-32 according to the gfs. It may mix with some snow flakes
with the 850 mb temperatures around -6c. The precipitation shield
looks to be out of the region by 12z sun, so that the day and
probably the night turn out dry. Monday, the models have slightly
different timings, but it looks like that rain is a possibility
again as either a southern branch feature (ecmwf) or a northern
branch feature (gfs) kicks off some sort of showers. 850 mb
temperatures look warm enough for rain by Tuesday morning.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 646 am edt Tue apr 23 2019
low pressure and associated remaining showers will depart over the
next few hours, while a cold front presses across NRN michigan
through the day. Ifr CIGS and gusty NW winds have already set in
across the NW lower airports, which will translate into apn. Cigs
will slowly rise through the day, but will remain at lest MVFR
through much of the day. Then, the air mass dries enough to scour
out the low clouds, with only some periodic few-scattered high
level cirrus expected for tonight.

The cold front has already brought the gusty NW winds to the nw
lower airports, and these too will also arrive apn this morning.

The gustiness will persist into this evening, before speeds
gradually die off through tonight as higher pressure settles in
overhead by daybreak Wednesday.

Marine
Issued at 200 am edt Tue apr 23 2019
low pressure and associated showers and few rumbles of thunder will
depart the region this morning, while much cooler and increasingly
drier air fills into the region through the day via gusty nw
advisory level winds. There may be a few gale force gusts,
especially in the NE lower nearshore waters, but these should be
more of the exception than the rule. Will opt to not go with gale
warnings. Winds will gradually taper off going through tonight, as a
looser pressure gradient arrives with an axis of high pressure
settling in overhead by daybreak Wednesday. Winds ramp up out of the
sw later Wednesday into Wednesday night, ahead of the next cold
front. Could be some advisory level gusts over lake michigan, but
increasingly strong overlake stability is likely to keeps speeds
just below.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lhz345.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for lhz346>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 2 mi56 min NE 9.9 G 12 41°F 38°F1007.7 hPa40°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 4 mi68 min NNE 12 G 16 41°F 34°F1006.8 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 13 mi56 min NNW 2.9 G 8 1007.6 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 15 mi56 min NW 6 G 11 38°F1008 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 17 mi56 min NNW 8.9 G 12 1008.1 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi56 min NNE 6 G 7 35°F 35°F1006.6 hPa35°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI 40 mi34 min N 8 G 12 35°F 1009.8 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi104 min NNE 8.9 37°F 37°F34°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI3 mi79 minNNE 75.00 miRain Fog/Mist43°F41°F93%1008.6 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI16 mi78 minN 95.00 miRain Fog/Mist40°F39°F100%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E3E4E6NE5E9E9
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NE7E6E5NE4CalmN5N7NW3
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3W4CalmS3E3E3S3CalmNE3NE3CalmNE3NE4E6E3E3E3SE5E4E3E5E8
2 days agoCalmNW4335CalmCalmS3NW7W74W4W4W5CalmCalmSW3W4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.