Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sault Ste. Marie, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 6:49PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:56 PM EDT (01:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ322 129 Pm Edt Tue Oct 9 2018
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation... The united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again. Lat...lon 4653 8413 4637 8414 4619 8408 4615 8401 4606 8395 4606 8390 4610 8385 4596 8378 4597 8389 4599 8388 4598 8398 4612 8417 4617 8428 4635 8431 4648 8438 4650 8433 4649 8427 4654 8420
LSZ322 Expires:201810091830;;916247 FZUS73 KAPX 091729 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 129 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2018 LSZ322-091830-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI
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location: 46.46, -84.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 162332
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
732 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 359 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Lake effect precipitation returns tonight...

high impact weather potential: sneaky snow accumulations in the
snow belts overnight through Wednesday morning possibly producing
slick roads.

Pattern synopsis forecast: upper air charts and water vapor
imagery reveals broad troughing remaining in place across eastern
canada and down into the great lakes. Several pieces of short-wave
energy continue to rotate down through ontario into the northern
lakes region. One piece and attending surface low is moving through
southern ontario with a cold front swinging through central upper
michigan into wisconsin. Ahead of the front, narrow thermal moisture
ridge extends from the midwest into lower michigan and has produced
varying degrees of cloud cover across the CWA as well earlier elevated
showers across northern lake michigan straits and tip of the mitt.

Those have ended. So now just awaiting the arrival of the front cold
air and lake effect showers.

Primary forecast concerns: accumulating snow slick roads later tonight
into Wednesday.

Cold front will slide down through northern michigan through the
course of the evening with another round of cold air (-8c to -10c
h8 temps) overspreading northern michigan by morning. High
resolution guidance continues to suggest the development of a
thin line of showers along the front itself, although so far there
is no evidence of that. Regardless, lake effect showers behind
the front (rain to start-> mostly snow or a mix) are a certainty
off lake superior later this evening and down into northwest
lower michigan overnight... Then continuing through Wednesday.

Lake effect parameters are not too shabby by morning as inversion
heights climb to AOA 750 mb, lake to h8 delta t's in the high
teens to near 20c and lake induced CAPE values in excess of 500
j kg. It's likely we see some decent lake effect showers and some
accumulating snow in eastern upper michigan and the higher terrain
snow belt of northern lower michigan by morning, perhaps up to an
inch. And with temps hovering down close to freezing, this could
lead to localized slick travel conditions Wednesday morning. I
have no plans for any kind of headline at this point. But I will
continue to highlight the risk in the hwo. Overnight shift will
want to keep an eye on the snow accumulations temps etc for
consideration of any needed sps, etc.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 359 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Below normal temperatures; lake effects Wednesday, developing
storm Friday...

high impact weather potential: some early season significant snow
accumulations possible, interior northern lower and east upper
michigan through Wednesday night.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation type and
snowfall amounts through Wednesday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A continued active pattern across the
great lakes through the end of the work week. The clipper and upper
trough passing over the northern great lakes Tuesday, will continue
to push eastward across quebec on Wednesday, while a narrow ridge of
high pressure settles over the state. A second clipper is forecast
to build into the northern great lakes Friday night.

At upper levels, a deep 500mb trough over the eastern great lakes
Wednesday, will exit east while a weak 500mb ridge builds over the
state and ohio valley Thursday and early Friday. Mid level temps in
this pattern will moderate from -9c Wed night to around +6c in
developing upper ridge. Afternoon high temps will warm from below
normal readings in the upper 30s Wednesday, to more seasonal levels
in the lower 50s Friday.

Continued wet Wednesday, as NW flow lake effects dominate the
region, the result of a cold mid lvl airmass and increased over
lake instability (850mb temps around -8c and NRN lake water temps
around 15c) and lingering low lvl cyclonic flow on the backside of
the exiting system. Model soundings show inversion heights near 8k
ft through Wednesday evening, before quickly diminishing under 3kft
overnight with developing area of high pressure. Expect a rain and
snow mix over NRN lower through Wed morning as freezing levels
bounce around 700 to 800 ft, before trending toward all snow wed
afternoon and night with freezing levels dropping below 500ft. Ern
upper will likely become all snow early Wednesday as model soundings
drop freezing levels to 500 ft or less. Snowfall accumulations
nearing 2 to 3 inches is not out of the question in favored NW flow
lake belts or ERN upper and NW lower michigan by early Thursday
morning, as model soundings shows a period of large snow flake size
possible (top of low level moisture layer extending up to temps
around -14c). However, snowfall amounts will be tricky with daytime
solar radiation disruption, warm ground, and some dry air mixing in
through the column.

Otherwise, will continue mainly dry and milder condtions across
northern michigan Thursday and into Friday afternoon, as a narrow
area of high pressure quickly passes eastward across the state.

However, pcpn chances increase quickly across the northern great
lakes Friday night, as yet another clipper pushes into the region.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 359 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
a wet and active pattern across the great lakes through the period.

A strengthening clipper dropping out of central canada Friday night,
will quickly exit northeast into quebec Saturday. Low lvl cyclonic
flow, on the backside of the exiting system, lingers over northern
michigan through Sunday. A second clipper then drops across the
state Monday and Monday night. At upper levels, a broad 500mb trough
settles into the great lakes to begin the weekend and remains
generally in place to begin the upcoming work week. Mid lvl temps
plummet across the great lakes in the base of the upper trough, with
850mb temps falling from around +4c Friday night, to -10c by Sunday,
moderating a bit to -4c to begin the work week. Overall will mention
several chances of pcpn through the weekend, and mixing with snow
from time to time. Chance of wintry pcpn continues Monday night and
Tuesday as the second clipper passes over the state. High
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, in the mid and
upper 40s through the period. &&

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 206 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
low pressure is across ontario with a cold front slicing down
through western upper michigan into wisconsin. Ahead of the front,
narrow corridor of mid and high cloud cover stretches through
northern lower michigan, along with some lower (MVFR) cloud cover
coming off northern lake michigan into the tip of the mitt. But
outside of that,VFR conditions dominate lower michigan.

Cold front will fold down through the region tonight with another
shot of cold air arriving. This will set the stage for lake effect
rain and snow showers to become widespread across northern
michigan later tonight and persisting through Wednesday.

Very gusty winds once again this afternoon with gusts running 25
to 35 knots. Winds diminish some tonight but ramp up again
Wednesday, although gusts will not be as high as today.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 732 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
cold front moving into far northern lower mi, with a narrow line
of showers along it. Much colder air arrives tonight into
Wednesday behind the front, resulting in lake effect rain snow
showers redeveloping. These will be most prominent between tvc and
pln, though both of those sites will see at least some activity.

InitialVFR conditions will give way to mix ofVFR and MVFR as we
move thru tonight.

Ongoing gusty SW to W winds will remain gust while veering nw.

Marine
Issued at 359 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
gusty SW winds persist into the evening with gale gusts on lake
michigan into northern lake huron. Winds will diminish once again
tonight, but enough gustiness and lingering waves that small craft
advisories will needed through at least Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lhz347>349.

Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345-346.

Lm... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Ba
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 2 mi39 min WNW 8.9 G 17 40°F 51°F1010 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 4 mi39 min NW 19 G 31 49°F1009.1 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 13 mi39 min WNW 12 G 17 51°F1009.7 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 15 mi39 min WNW 12 G 20 47°F1009.8 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 17 mi39 min WNW 13 G 23 1010.2 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi39 min NW 7 G 12 47°F1009.2 hPa
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI 40 mi77 min NW 13 G 26 38°F 1009.5 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi57 min WNW 26 45°F 51°F30°F

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI3 mi62 minWNW 11 G 2210.00 miOvercast40°F36°F86%1010.1 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI16 mi61 minNW 13 G 2310.00 miOvercast39°F35°F86%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW4N3NW4NW5N4NW4NW8NW5NW6NW7NW5W5NW4W8
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2 days agoSE4S4SE4S3S3S6S5SW4SW4SW4NW6NW4NW7NW7NW6NW8NW6NW6NW4NW6NW5NW4N4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.