Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sault Ste. Marie, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday January 24, 2019 6:45 AM EST (11:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:08PMMoonset 10:30AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ322 755 Am Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.the st marys river system has been reopened to vessel navigation... The united states coast guard in sault ste marie has reopened the st marys river system to navigation. The dense fog which affected the river system earlier in the day has now dissipated...allowing for safe navigation once again. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Dense fog was reducing visibilities to below 1 mile. Reduce your speed, and keep a lookout for other vessels, buoys, and breakwaters. Keep your navigation lights on. If not equipped with radar, you should consider seeking safe harbor. && lat...lon 4647 8412 4637 8414 4619 8408 4606 8395 4612 8382 4611 8378 4597 8392 4596 8400 4612 8417 4612 8423 4622 8437 4628 8430 4643 8436 4635 8456 4643 8468 4651 8462 4645 8448 4650 8442 4649 8427 4653 8422
LSZ322 Expires:201812161400;;879615 FZUS73 KAPX 161255 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 755 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2018 LSZ322-161400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sault Ste. Marie, MI
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location: 46.46, -84.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241133
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
633 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Winter storm has passed, time for the lake effect machine...

high impact weather potential: accumulating lake effect snow across
the snowbelts to end the work week.

Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight composite analysis features
broad long wave troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the
conus. Shearing short-wave trough is progressing through the western
great lakes early this morning and has brought about a flare-up of
lake induced enhanced snow to northern lower michigan. At the
surface, departing surface low is across the ontario quebec
border with attendant cold front stretching south through the
appalachians. Sharp lake aggregate surface troughing extends back
along the north shore of the u.P. With some northerly flow lake
effect impacting parts of the u.P.

Further upstream, another short-wave trough is making it's way
through south central canada in the northern plains. Weak surface
reflection is over SW ontario with a true arctic cold front
extending down through the upper midwest. Colder air has is
horseshoeing it's way around the great lakes, slowed by the great
lakes heat plume. Really cold upstream air is on it's way.

Primary forecast concerns: snow accumulations and headlines as
lake effect snow machine kicks into high gear.

Lead short-wave trough slides east of the region this morning with
a brief interlude of subsidence drier air lowering inversion
heights and downtick in lake induced snows this morning. Thus a
relatively quiet start to the day.

But... Things will go downhill quickly as we get into the afternoon
and particularly tonight. Upstream short-wave trough surface
reflection and sharp arctic boundary will slide through the
region through the afternoon early evening with arctic air then
collapsing into northern michigan tonight. As typically the case,
we will probably have a decent burst of lake enhanced synoptic
snowfall along the sharp boundary as it moves through, which will
bring nearly all areas some snowfall, although better snow
accumulations will be across parts of eastern michigan as well as
northwest lower michigan with enhancement off the lakes and
terrain boost.

Behind the front, lake effect conditions improve dramatically as
temperatures plunge inversion heights are nearly erased and
lake-h8 delta TS climb well into the 20s. Bufkit forecast
soundings show equilibrium levels up over 12k feet and lake
induced CAPE values climbing up over 750 j kg as we go through the
night, all supportive of a period of heavy lake effect snow later
this evening and overnight.

Right now it appears that areas right around grand traverse bay
get the best synoptic lake effect accumulations through tonight
as winds veer sharply nnw behind the front. Lighter snow
accumulations elsewhere, although with the anticipated burst of
snow along the front and gusty winds lake effect that follows,
many areas will end up with impactful winter weather.

As far as headlines are concerned, snow accumulations will likely
flirt with warning criteria across leelanau benzie and grand
traverse counties with the combination of snowfall this afternoon
and lake effect focusing into that area tonight. Combined with
gusty winds blowing snow developing later tonight, plan on
upgrading those counties to a warning. Will keep the rest of the
already issued advisories intact and add a few more counties into
the mix, again for the combination of snow showers gusty winds
and blowing snow.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Brutal cold with chances for snow...

high impact weather potential: wintry travel and extreme cold into
the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperatures and snowfall
through the period.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A deep upper trough will dig into the
region Friday and become anchored over the great lakes and upper
midwest through the weekend. Mid level temperatures in this pattern
will quickly plummet to around -24c Friday and Saturday, which will
generate well below normal temperatures. Daytime highs will only be
in the single digits and overnight lows will near 10 below zero
across all of northern michigan through the weekend. The cold
temperatures will be further heightened Thursday into Friday
afternoon as northwest winds 15 to 25 mph generate well below zero
wind chill readings across all of northern michigan.

There will be several chances for snow heading into the weekend as
cyclonic flow lingers over the great lakes Friday on the backside of
a system exiting the eastern great lakes, before a second feature
drops into the state to begin the weekend. The most persistent snows
and most significant amounts will in favored snow belts of lake
michigan and lake superior through the period.

Highest snowfall amounts appears to be Friday night and early
Saturday as model soundings show northwest 925-850mb winds trending
west Friday afternoon and remaining nearly steady west into Saturday
morning. 925-850mb winds slowly trend southwest Saturday afternoon
in advance of the next clipper dropping into the state. Inversion
heights through the period will be around 7k to 9k ft. However
snowfall amounts will become hindered Saturday as the entire
vertical temp column cools to temps between temps of -15c and -23c.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
a wintry period to continue across the great lakes with well below
normal temperatures, along with several chances for snow. A 500mb
trough will dig into the great lakes over the weekend, forcing mid
lvl temps to fall to brutally cold readings near -32c Sunday, which
will keep daytime highs in the single digits. Temps remain below
normal across northern michigan to begin the work week before the
coldest air of the season floods into the region Wed and Thursday
(mid lvl temps falling to around -34c). There will be several rounds
of snow over northern michigan during the period, as a system pushes
over the state Sunday before a second system affects the region
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 632 am est Thu jan 24 2019
MVFR conditions dominate across northern lower michigan for much
of today. Arctic cold front will slide through the region this
afternoon evening. Burst of heavier snow will accompany the front
and likely bring a period of ifr conditions to the terminal sites.

Lake effect snows follow heading into tonight with the main focus
into tvc and mbl.

Marine
Issued at 404 am est Thu jan 24 2019
gusty winds develop across the region late this afternoon and
tonight across much of the nearshore areas. Plan to hoist small
craft advisory headlines for most areas.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 7 pm est Friday for
miz008-015>019-021>024-027>029-031>034.

Winter storm warning from noon today to 11 am est Friday for
miz020-025-026.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Friday for lhz345-
347>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 6 pm est Friday
for lmz323-342-344.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Friday for lmz345-346.

Near term... Ba
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 2 mi28 min E 4.1 G 5.1 13°F 1003.9 hPa
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 4 mi28 min E 4.1 G 5.1 16°F 33°F1002.6 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 13 mi28 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 1003.6 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 15 mi28 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 1004 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 17 mi28 min W 1.9 G 1.9 15°F 1003.8 hPa8°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 39 mi28 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 15°F 35°F1003.4 hPa13°F
WFPM4 - Whitefish Point, MI 40 mi66 min ESE 5.1 G 6 20°F 1003.7 hPa

Wind History for Little Rapids, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sault Ste. Marie, MI3 mi51 minNE 310.00 miOvercast18°F14°F84%1004.5 hPa
Sault Ste Marie, Chippewa County International Airport, MI16 mi50 minNE 410.00 miOvercast16°F12°F88%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from ANJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3E4E5NE3E3E3NE4NE4N3W4NW4NW6W5NW4W5W3NW4CalmNW3N3CalmCalmNE3
1 day agoE5E4E6E6E9
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SE7SE6SE5E3E3E3NE4NE3CalmE3E3CalmE3CalmNE3E4
2 days agoSW6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W4CalmE3S3SE4CalmE4E4E5E3E3E4E5E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.