Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 3:31 PM

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FXUS61 KCAR 040345 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1145 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cross the region tonight through Saturday, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. An occluded front will cross the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
11:45 PM Update...The sky is mostly cloudy across the area with a broken to overcast deck around 5-6K ft so increased clouds a bit. Made some minor adjustments to temps. Otherwise, forecast looks good.

Previous Discussion: High pressure, surface/aloft, will remain ridged across the region tonight through Saturday. Moisture beneath the subsidence inversion, along with clouds wrapping back across the region from the Maritimes, will keep partly/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area tonight. Diurnal cloud development and clouds wrapping back from the Maritimes will keep partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the region Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to around 40 across the forecast area. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the forecast area. However, mid to upper 50s will occur along the Downeast coast where onshore winds will develop.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure should remain centered over NB Saturday night. Upper air model soundings indicate a moisture low layer throughout the night, thus cloudy skies are expected. Temps should be fairly mild with S flow and light winds. By Sunday, a weakening occluded frontal boundary starts to approach from the west. Clouds and S winds should increase into the afternoon with the tightening pressure gradients. By the evening, the chance for rain showers should spread to the eastern border. By Sunday night, rain showers will continue with decreasing S winds. QPF models show the majority of rain staying to the south as the low intensifies. By Monday, the system will pick up speed and pull the rest of the rain showers out of the region. The 925mb model temps show a warm airmass behind the system, which should bring temps above normal for the day.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure returns to the region Monday night and remains in the area through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the extended models are picking up on some shortwave energy moving across the waters. However, the 12z model runs showing the rain staying far to the south. The NBM had to much precip in the forecast for the end of the week due to these shortwave systems, so decreased precip to chance or slight chance. The models lose consistency by the weekend. Temps should be near normal.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR early tonight, with cigs falling towards SCT to BKN MVFR across Downeast terminals, and BKN to OVC MVFR at northern terminals overnight. Cigs will trend back towards VFR through the day on Saturday. Winds NE around 5 kts, shifting SE around 5 kts on Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs.
Lgt Winds.

Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the day.

Mon night-Wed...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions through this period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Fredericton
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Fri -- 02:49 AM ADT     3.54 meters High Tide
Fri -- 04:11 AM ADT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM ADT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:27 AM ADT     3.49 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 10:26 AM ADT     3.50 meters High Tide
Fri -- 11:46 AM ADT     3.50 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM ADT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:40 PM ADT     3.53 meters High Tide
Fri -- 08:07 PM ADT     3.49 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 08:37 PM ADT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM ADT     3.49 meters High Tide
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Fredericton, New Brunswick, Tide feet

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