Tuesday, December11, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:10AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:45 AM AST (04:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle, ME
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location: 46.62, -68     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 120213
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
913 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region later tonight as weak low
pressure tracks east across the gulf of maine. High pressure
will build across the region later Wednesday through Thursday
and remain over the area on fri.

Near term through Wednesday
9:13 pm update: a weak area of low pressure is moving up the
midcoast of maine with a norlun trough expected as the weak meso
low pulls away overnight. Thus far, the returns on the kgyx and
kcbw radars have not been all that impressive with nothing more
than about 15 dbz returns. Light snow was reported at rockland
and the visibility briefly dropped to 3 4 mile before quickly
improving to 9 miles. Some very light snow or flurries has
reached kbhb and also flurries have been observed in a few spots
in far northern maine. It still seems reasonable that some
locations especially along the hancock county coast and outer
islands will locally pick up a few inches of snow overnight. As
it is not looking all that impressive on radar will hold the
course with no advisories. That said, with a high fluff factor,
we can't entirely rule that some spot picks up several inches of
snow, but based on the latest radar returns it is not looking
likely. The latest few runs of the hrrr have been consistent
that most the accumulation will be over by around 10z wed
morning. Made some tweaks based on the latest observations and
trends, but nothing all that drastic.

Previous discussion:
the tricky part of the fcst tngt will be the potential of a
compact norlun event for msly WRN coastal downeast areas, spcly
late tngt into erly Wed morn. The consensus of 12z synoptic
scale and a bunch of recent hrly meso model output suggests that
a meso low ovr the casco bay will come under the influence of
initial S WV energy from the great lks this eve, and then some
additional S WV energy from NRN qb late ngt. This interaction
will likely result in an area of ocean sn to xpnd ene from the
gulf of me toward the mid maine coast and WRN coastal downeast
areas lathe this eve into the late ngt hrs, with potential brief
mdt sn rates between 1 and 4 am for coastal hancock county.

With this fcst update, we increased pops to categorical and sn
amts to just below wntr wx adv thresholds alg the immediate
hancock coast and outer islands. Due to the tmg of the event
late at ngt, it will be difficult to real tm reports, so
monitoring radar ref trends will be important in the event we
need to go with wntr wx hdlns in this small area of our fa. In
any event, any organized snfl or coastal areas will quickly wind
down to sct sn shwrs aft 6 am Wed as the upper trof axis
crosses the area.

Elsewhere, skies will become ptly to msly cldy ovrngt as sc
ahead of the cold front and S WV from NRN qb apchs the fa. Isold
sn shwrs ovr the rgn with perhaps sct sn shwrs ovr the mtns can
be xpctd late tngt into Wed morn with the passage of these
features with ovrngt lows not as cold as last ngt due to greater
xpctd cld cvr. Following the cold front, sn shwrs should end
and skies will gradually become msly clr to ptly cldy by wed
aftn as brisk nnw winds cont. Hi temps Wed aftn will be similar
to tdy, but the wind chill factor will make it feel much less
comfortable.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
Sfc high pressure cntrd to the west of CWA at the start of the short
term pd. Clr skies and lgt winds wl mean another night of well-blo
zero temps acrs the north with some favored locations ovr nrn
aroostook possibly making another run at -20f by daybreak tho h9
temps wl be warming by 12z.

Temps wl be moderating thru the end of the week with maxes on fri
likely to climb close to normal values. Upr lvl ridge building acrs
the northeast likely to be undercut by weak WV zipping thru SRN new
england Thu night. On Fri h5 heights rise to +560dm with highs
u20 nr 30 acrs the north and climbing abv frzg in downeast areas for
the first time in a week.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Both the 12z GFS and ec keep the NRN and SRN streams separate ovr
the weekend. Cannot rule out chc pcpn Fri night into Sat with the
upr lvl trof crossing CWA with lkly pops rmng south of the coast as
main upr low rmns deep into the SRN u.S. Cmc indicates a little more
phasing as it brings h5 low slightly further north than rmng
guidance does on fri.

Models vary aft 00z Sun with ec much stronger with sfc high as it
builds in fm the great lks keeping the secondary low ovr the coastal
carolinas as opposed to the GFS off of the mid-atlantic with just an
open wave trof on cmc as it is much more progressive with system and
wl mostly discount this soln. Temps wl slide to slightly blo normal
by the end of the long term.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term: NRN taf sites will beginVFR this eve then transition
to MVFR sc cld cvr late tngt into Wed morn, then sct out toVFR
again by Wed aftn.

Downeast sites will be MVFR or low ifr tngt, with kbhb likely
becoming ifr in a short pd of steady lgt snfl late tngt. Both
sites should transition back toVFR durg the morn Wed and remain
so Wed aftn.

Short term:VFR conditions expected through the end of the week.

Restrictions look to lower beginning Fri night into sat
depending on the track of the low pressure system.

Marine
Near term: initially lgt winds and seas, then winds increase
late tngt into Wed morn to SCA behind a departing sfc low movg e
across the gulf of me and cold front. SCA winds will then cont
thru the remainder of the day as llvl cold advcn increases ahead
of can sfc hi pres from NRN qb. Went with a blend of nwps ww3
guidance for fcst WV hts.

Short term: SCA conditions will linger into the very early part
of the short term. After this time winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through the end of the week.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 am Wednesday to midnight est
Wednesday night for anz050>052.

Near term... CB vjn
short term... Farrar
long term... Farrar
aviation... CB vjn farrar
marine... CB vjn farrar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME6 mi50 minN 010.00 miOvercast0°F-4°F83%1019.4 hPa
Caribou, Caribou Municipal Airport, ME18 mi52 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy3°F-2°F76%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmSE4CalmCalmE4E34N5CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW3CalmSE4W3CalmCalmCalm3CalmNW10
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2 days ago3SW33SW5NW6SW3SW3CalmSE3CalmCalmNE43S64S6SE5SE5SE4S5S4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericton, New Brunswick
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Fredericton
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Tue -- 06:05 AM AST     1.71 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 AM AST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:26 AM AST     1.77 meters High Tide
Tue -- 11:12 AM AST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:02 PM AST     1.75 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM AST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM AST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:15 PM AST     1.81 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.81.81.71.71.71.71.71.71.81.81.81.81.81.71.71.71.71.81.81.81.81.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.