Wednesday, January24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:25PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 3:24 AM AST (07:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 12:19AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 240512
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1212 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Low pressure will lift north of our area tonight. High pressure will
build in from canada Wednesday into Thursday and crest over the
region on Friday.

Near term through today
Update 12:10 am: have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point.

No other changes.

Previous discussion...

low pressure will be to our west this evening as secondary low
pressure lifts across north central maine. Above freezing air at
the surface should be across the entire region except western
and northwestern aroostook county where the secondary surface
low will hold cold air near the surface. Some freezing rain and
sleet will continue in the northwest with a bit of rain, drizzle
and fog further south. The main batch of precipitation will
quickly slide east and away early this evening. However, a
trailing upper level shortwave trough will slide across the far
north later this evening as cold air returns. This will bring
period of snow overnight amounting to an additional 2 to 3
inches across western and northwestern aroostook county. Low
pressure will lift away to the north on Wednesday as that
trailing shortwave slides east. Skies will clear downeast
Wednesday and partially clear over the north as high pressure
begins to build in from the west.

Short term tonight through Friday
Generally fair weather expected Wednesday night through Friday.

Intensifying low pressure will continue to move northeast
across newfoundland labrador as a ridge of high pressure at the
surface builds across the area through Friday. The only caveat
will be an upper level disturbance crossing the region on
Thursday. This will keep more in the way of cloud cover across
the far north later Thursday and into Thursday night. There is
some concern Thursday night that cloud cover may persist across
the far north, with some soundings indicating the potential for
a subsidence inversion and more in the way of clouds through
Thursday night. We were a bit more optimistic in showing partial
clearing toward Friday morning. However, this could affect low
temperatures Thursday night and limit any radiational cooling as
well. Anyway, looks as if gradient may hold overnight Thursday
with ridge axis still to our west limiting radiational cooling
potential. Friday should see mainly sunny skies as the high
moves east. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be a bit
below normal for this time of year.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
High pressure continues to slide east Friday night with
increasing clouds in advance of an approaching warm front. The
warm front will lift across the region Saturday allowing
temperatures to rise to above normal levels. There could also be
the chance for snow or rain showers with the passage of the
front. A cold front will approach Saturday night. This is where
the forecast starts to get interesting as we go into the Sunday
night through Monday time frame. Models are indicating the
potential for a wave of low pressure to move northeast along the
boundary later Sunday into Monday with the potential for rain
Sunday changing to snow Sunday night into Monday from north to
south. There is quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance
regarding the track and the placement of any potential wave
moving up along the front. Also, this is quite the change in
most of the operational model guidance from yesterday at this
time. For now, have used the model blended approach with likely
pops Sunday night into Monday. Conditions begin to improve by
Tuesday. Temperatures on Sunday will be above normal and then
trend cooler for the beginning of the next work week, although
still a bit above normal for this time of year.

Aviation 05z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term: ifr and lifr in freezing rain north of khul will
slowly improve to MVFR by morning, but there is the chance that
a period of snow could lower conditions to lifr, especially at
kfve early Wed morning. Ifr and lifr in drizzle and fog at kbgr
and kbhb will improve toVFR downeast after midnight and will
beVFR on Wednesday. The low level wind shear has shifted to the
east of the terminals.

Short term:VFR conditions Wednesday night and much of Thursday.

There is the potential for MVFR CIGS across the northern
terminals Thursday night into Friday morning.VFR regionwide
Friday night and Saturday. Low pressure could begin to affect
the terminal by Sunday with potential MVFR ifr in rain changing
to snow late in the day.

Near term: a small craft advisory is in effect for the waters
through Wednesday. A few gusts to around 35 knots are possible
late this evening across the eastern waters.

Short term: small craft advisory conditions will likely persist
Wednesday night and into the upcoming weekend.

Precipitation downeast has ranged from 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts across coastal hancock and coastal
washington counties. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt
will result in rises on rivers and streams, especially tonight
into Wednesday. Ice jams are in place on the piscataquis and
pleasant rivers as well as on the kenduskeag stream. There is
concern that these ice jams could break up and move with the
warmer temps and rainfall. This could lead to water backing up
behind the jams leading to the possibility of flooding.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm warning until 3 am est early this morning for

Flood watch until 4 am est early this morning for mez011-

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for

Near term... Mignone

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi28 minWNW 42.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F25°F92%996.6 hPa

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE4E3SE5E5E5E8E6NE10N5N4SE5E7NE6E8NW4N4N5N5N7NW6W3NW5W11NW4
1 day agoW4CalmCalmNW4NW4NW66N10NW11N10NE6N7--NE4NE3N3S4CalmN3CalmSW4N3NE5E3
2 days agoNW6N3NW4N4CalmCalmNW8NW8NW10W7W9NW12NW7NW6N6N11NW8NW11NW7NW4CalmCalmW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.