Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, ME

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:37PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 5:10 PM ADT (20:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, ME
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location: 46.62, -68.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 191923
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
323 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest tonight
and crest over the area Thursday into Thursday evening. Strong low
pressure will track northwest of the area Friday followed by a cold
front Friday night.

Near term through Thursday
Cool high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest
tonight. The chilly air in the boundary layer combined with warm,
moist ground will result in a layer of stratus clouds remaining over
much of the region overnight. The stratus will linger into Thursday
morning, especially over the north. As high pressure crests over the
region later in the day and an upper level ridge builds in ahead of
the next system, some modification in mid level temps may allow
clouds to break up a bit in the afternoon. Temperatures will be
cool tonight but are not expected to drop to freezing with the
cloud cover. Highs Thursday will be close to 60 north and the
low 60s downeast.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
On Thursday night, a 1028mb surface high will be strengthening
to the east of the area as an upper ridge crests over the area
later in the night. Have lowered temperatures to the upper 30s
to lower 40s, but expect high clouds to increase later in the
night... Especially after the upper ridge axis crosses. As a
result, do not have high confidence in frost issues. Winds will
start light early Friday morning, but will increase dramatically
by late morning as powerful low pressure in quebec moves north
of the region. All guidance shows very strong h925-h850 winds
increasing through the day ahead of the cold front that will
cross Friday night. H850 winds may reach 60 to 70 kts. The key
is the mixing depth. Precipitation would reduce mixing, but have
cut back QPF forecasts with the warm front on Friday in line
with the gfs. Without precip, strong winds can continue to mix
up to the frontal inversion Friday afternoon through the time of
frontal passage. Gusts over 50 mph at times are possible. With
leaves on the trees, gusts over 35 mph usually cause problems.

As a result, power outages are a big concern for Friday
afternoon and night. A high wind watch will be issued for
northern zones where confidence is highest. Later Friday
afternoon into the evening, elevated instability increases with
an h850 thermal ridge and have added a chance of thunderstorms
with gusty winds. The cold front itself will cross the area
later in the night and will certainly involve strong winds
mixing to the surface on the order of 40 to 50 mph for many
locations. It may be one of those situations that requires
severe thunderstorm products for squall lines... Even without
thunder. Temperatures will rise through the night ahead of the
front and fall sharply with the front. Friday's high will be
well after sunset. Saturday will continue to feature strong
gusty northwest winds hitting 35 mph, but these winds will die
off in the afternoon as high pressure builds and skies clear
across the entire area.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
High pressure builds Saturday night. With the cold air in place,
frost will be a concern... Mostly in the northern half of the
area. A reinforcing cold front arrives later Saturday night or
Sunday morning and will bring the coldest air of the season. A
hard freeze seems likely at this point with a big 1035mb high
building directly over the area overnight. Have introduced
mention of frost in the forecast for Sunday night. Monday will
remain chilly with highs in the 50s , but skies will be clear
with little wind. Another night of frost is a threat Monday
night. The question will be whether how much the upper ridge
amplifies along the east coast on Tuesday. The 19 12z GFS may be
too fast due to potential blocking in the atlantic. Once this
ridge finally moves east, a more active pattern emerges for mid
to late next week as a deep upper trough digs over the
midwestern us. This will bring increasing pops, temperatures
and dew points Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Aviation 16z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term: MVFR conditions in stratus clouds are expected to
persist tonight and into Thursday morning. Conditions may
improve toVFR in the afternoon as the ceiling lifts and clouds
break up a bit.

Short term:VFR conditions are expected to be the predominant
condition Thursday night into Sunday. The exception will be MVFR
cigs Friday afternoon and Friday night with isolated
thunderstorms. The biggest aviation hazard will be strong
southerly surface winds and llws late Friday morning through
Friday night. Gusty northwest winds will occur behind a cold
front on Saturday morning.

Marine
Near term: winds and seas will remain below SCA today and
tonight. However, a few gusts from the northeast may reach 25
kt over the offshore waters tonight. Winds will diminish on
Thursday as the high builds over.

Short term: the strongest sca... And potentially a gale Friday
night... Emerges for Friday afternoon into Saturday. In
coordination with gyx, will hold off on headlines for now. Winds
and seas will abate from Saturday morning until increasing again
later Tuesday next week.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... High wind watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
for mez001>006.

Marine... None.

Near term... Bloomer
short term... Mcw
long term... Mcw
aviation... Bloomer mcw
marine... Bloomer mcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Presque Isle, ME19 mi75 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast56°F48°F75%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from PQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE6NE7NE8NE8NE10NE10NE8NE12NE10NE11NE11N6N7N5N8
G16
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G21
NE11NE7NE8N4N11N7
1 day agoSW8SW7SW7S8SW6S5CalmS5S6W6W6SW5SW4W3CalmCalmSW4NW3N10N8N8N8N10NE14
G18
2 days agoN3N4NW3S3W3CalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm3W3SW35S6S4--SW10W12
G16
W12W8W10
G18
W12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.