Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 9:09 PM Moonrise 3:07 PM   Moonset 2:52 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 182343 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 743 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A disturbance will cross tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will move south across the region Sunday into early next week, then build south of the area through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
745 PM Update: The main band of rain showers continues to track eastward this evening, with the axis currently stretching from Van Buren down through Bangor as seen on current KCBW radar reflectivity. This rain will exit out into New Brunswick later this evening. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on current observations and trends.

Previous Discussion: Weakening ridge axis still in place over ern areas this afternoon. Ocean sfc low looks to be located far enough to the south to prevent area of showers into Downeast this afternoon and evening, with main focus of "heavier" showers up over central zones this afternoon before shifting south and east later on this evening. Area of convective showers looks to be associated with moisture streaming northeast and interacting with H7 shortwave as it does so. Trajectory and associated guidance has showers shifting slightly north and eastward this evening, spreading from about Bangor to Houlton by 00z.

Tonight will see moisture begin to sag south as H7 flow veers to the northwest and shoves showers offshore by 12z. Given extensive cloud cover expected along with showers overnight min temps should only be able to drop to around 50 degrees.

For Sunday skies should clear from northwest to southeast in the afternoon with the North Woods likely topping out in the lower 70s where most sunshine will be experienced. Downeast coast will be last to see sun, if any, and likely to remain in the lower 50s. However, nearly all inland locations will be above seasonal norms with temps around 70F fairly common across the area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The upper level ridge will help usher in shortwave energy Sunday night. Clouds are expected to decrease to partly cloudy with light winds and warm temps. By Monday, the surface ridging remains bringing S flow across the region. This should help push temps into the upper 70s. By the afternoon, a weak frontal boundary is expected to move through, causing enough instability for convective showers to form in the north. With CAPE values over 100 J/kg and steepening lapse rates, decided to include slight chance for thunderstorms mainly in the fair north but could move further south. For the south, partly sunny skies.

By Monday night, lingering showers are expected to remain in the north early then dissipate by midnight. Expect a fairly mild night with temps in the upper 50s in the north and upper 40s in the south. By Tuesday, a weakening low pressure should bring another round of showers to the north and clouds to the south.
Slightly stronger and more widespread afternoon instability in the north is expected, which could produce thunderstorms in the north.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Per the previous forecast: Upper ridge will continue to extend northeastward across the region through mid week with a warming trend. Wednesday looks like an even warmer day with 925MB temperatures progged to climb to 20C-23C across the region, thus expect the potential for highs in the mid to upper 80s for some inland locales. Appears another short wave will cross the region Wednesday afternoon with the chance for showers. With the warming temperatures and increasing low level moisture have included slight chance thunder as well. Cold front approaches Thursday with chance for more showers and possible thunderstorms. Cooler weather follows the front for the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions across all terminals will gradually drop towards LIFR overnight after -SHRA moves out of the area.
Cigs will slowly lift into the day on Sunday, but the improvement will be gradual. Skies may scatter out into Sunday afternoon to allow for the VFR condition to return. Winds light and variable overnight becoming SE at 5 to 10 kts on Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night-Tue...Mainly VFR, with possible MVFR north in slight chance afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms.
Light SW winds.

Tue night-Thu...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and possible slight chance afternoon thunderstorms. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: 745 PM Update: Conditions remain marginal but just below SCA levels. With the forecast for wave heights to peak over the next hour or two and then begin to decrease, no advisory is in place.

Previous Discussion: Winds will be below small craft levels tonight and Sunday. Seas will approach 4-5 feet tonight over Zone 51 but will remain marginal. Cannot rule out that an SCA may be needed but confidence is too low to issue this afternoon. Patchy fog will reduce visibilities over the waters tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA conditions for this period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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