Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Center, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:43PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:29 PM PST (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 9:53PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 846 pm pst Tue nov 13 2018 combined seas 2 to 4 feet. Bar conditions light. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 915 am and 900 pm Wednesday.
PZZ100 846 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A weak front will cross the area this evening into Wednesday with small craft advisory winds for most waters through early Wednesday. A second weak system will then clip the area on Thursday. Offshore flow will return this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Center, WA
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location: 46.63, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 140354
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
755 pm pst Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis Offshore flow through the gorge will continue to weaken
tonight and Wednesday. A weak frontal system passes over the area
tonight and Wednesday, but precipitation will favor the north half.

Another weak impulse drops southeast from british columbia late
Thursday night and Friday morning. Strong high pressure returns over
the weekend and is expected to hold into early next week. This will
also result in another round of east wind through the columbia gorge.

Short term Tonight through Friday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. East wind continues through the gorge this
afternoon, but not quite as strong as early this morning. At 21z the
kttd-kdls gradient was around -6.0 mb. This was enough to produce 55
mph gusts at crown point and 40-45 mph at corbett. 18z NAM suggests
the kttd-kdls gradient will drop to around
-3.5 mb by 12z wed, which is several hours slower than the 12z
version. This trend is more plausible considering the stratus field
piled up in the central gorge and upper hood river valley, which is
indicative of cross-cascade flow. Kttd profiler indicates a rapid
weakening of the primary east wind core late this afternoon.

Another added forecast twist is the potential for california wildfire
smoke to be over the area. The 12z hrrr 6000 ft agl smoke product
indicates some degree of drift smoke to be over the region tonight.

The strengthening SW 850 mb flow will push it east late tonight and
wed, but higher concentrations are possible over the south part of
the area, such as lane county. Less cloud cover tonight and minimal
to no wind could lead to short-term periods of moderate to unhealthy
for sensitive groups air quality categories.

Although not in the forecast or grids, would not be surprised to see
isolated flurries fall out of the stratus field in the central gorge
and upper hood river valley. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a
weakening low level front just inside 130w at 21z that will likely
stall just off the washington coast late this evening. The 12z nam
was a little slower with it, which makes sense as it enounters strong
surface high pressure. However, the 850 mb sw-w flow strengthens to
20-30 kt tonight and wed. This should be enough to help scour the
cold air in the central gorge and upper hood river valley. Rain still
appears very unlikely across our southern zones, including places
like corvallis and eugene. With the bulk of the upper level support
moving eastward across southern canada wed, the front should stall
out across our northern zones and fall apart Wednesday night into
early Thursday with rain chances decreasing fairly quickly during
that time.

H5 high pressure will be centered along 130-135w Thu night. This is
far enough offshore to allow short-waves within northwest flow aloft
to be in close proximity to the area. One such feature slides across
ne washington 12z fri. Models suggest there may be enough cyclonic
curvature to the flow for a threat of precip in SW washington and the
north oregon cascades from mt. Hood northward. Southern interior
valleys will likely see areas of fog Thu night through Fri morning.

The upper ridge amplifies Friday afternoon, which will result in
light north low-level flow. Friday could be the start of air quality
issues due to weak transport wind and minimal surface flow.

Fortunately, the 850-700 mb mean layer flow Fri will be nw-n. This
would not be favorable for transport of california smoke into the
forecast area. Weishaar

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Deterministic models are in agreement that a
sharp upper level ridge will remain over the forecast area from
Friday night into Saturday resulting in dry conditions. Both the gfs
and ECMWF show precipitation arriving along the coast by Monday
night as a weak front pushes on shore. This precipitation pattern
looks to stay in the extended forecast through Tuesday and into
Wednesday. Weak winds in the willamette valley allow for the
persistence of early morning fog and temperatures trend slightly
downward and stay within seasonal norms. -bphillips &&

Aviation Vfr conditions to begin with this evening, but a slow
moving cold front moving SE across NW oregon over the next 24 hours
will bring lowering CIGS and chances for light rain. CIGS along the
north coast will be the first to lower, expected to drop into MVFR
category by 09z. Further to the south and east CIGS will be slower
to come down, as late as 18z to 00z in the south willamette valley.

The likelihood of CIGS dropping into MVFR category also decreases to
the south and east, although all locations in NW oregon stand at
least a chance of doing so.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conds to continue through at least 12z wed
morning, and perhaps longer. After 12z there is an increasing chance
to see MVFR CIGS settle in. Expect low endVFR to MVFR CIGS to then
continue past 00z Wed afternoon.

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows. An approaching
cold front has slowed from earlier forecasts. SCA level winds of 21+
kts are sitting just outside the northwest corner of our waters per
an earlier satellite derived wind pass. Still expect gusts around 25
kt for tonight across the northern waters, but have delayed the
onset of the inner waters until about mid-evening. Have also delayed
the frontal passage by a few hours. Now expect the front will move
onshore around mid-day Wednesday with winds becoming light westerly
behind the front. High pres will build over the waters for Thu and
fri, bringing a period of northerly winds. Then more offshore flow
is looking increasingly likely next weekend but not especially
strong at this point.

Seas will remain 5 ft then build into the 7 to 9 ft range tonight
with the front. A trailing dynamic swell train will then briefly bring
westerly seas near 10 ft late Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Seas than drop to between 5 and 8 feet for several days
thereafter. Jbonk

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 10 am pst Wednesday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until noon pst Wednesday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 5 mi47 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 50°F1025.6 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi53 min S 8 G 12 49°F 51°F1025 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 22 mi29 min 54°F5 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 30 mi29 min 52°F4 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 31 mi41 min E 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 52°F1026.1 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 44 mi39 min S 16 G 19 54°F 54°F5 ft1025.6 hPa (+0.0)47°F

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA24 mi36 minENE 46.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F46°F90%1025.8 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E11E10NE8E10E9NE6NE8NE7NE5NE7NE6NE6NE7NE6NE5NE4NE4E3E4E4E6E7NE4
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2 days agoNE7E8E7E10NE8E9E9NE7NE10NE12NE12NE11NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Center, Palix River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Bay Center
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Wed -- 06:02 AM PST     7.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:53 AM PST     4.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:10 PM PST     7.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:52 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.12.13.54.86.17.27.67.36.65.754.54.24.85.96.87.47.87.66.85.54.232.2

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM PST     1.50 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:09 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:18 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM PST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:54 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:10 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:58 PM PST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:03 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:00 PM PST     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:52 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.11.51.51.410.2-0.8-1.3-1.4-1.3-0.70.10.60.80.60.40-0.6-1.6-2.2-2.3-2.2-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.