Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:50PM Sunday May 19, 2019 3:48 AM PDT (10:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 245 am pdt Sun may 19 2019 combined seas 6 to 8 ft. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 530 am this morning and 6 pm this afternoon. The morning ebb will be very strong.
PZZ100 245 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow will increase through the day today before turning southerly on Monday ahead of a weather system. Onshore flow will then dominate for the remainder of the week as high pressure remains centered well offshore with lower pressure east of the cascades.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 190947
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
245 am pdt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis Showery weather will continue through today, and into
most of the coming week. However, with the main storm track to south
south, will see bulk of precipitation to the south over southerly
oregon and california. Temperatures will trend a tad below what is
typically expected for middle of may.

Short term Today through Tuesday... Plenty of showers over the
region this am, mainly north of a tillamook to portland to mt
jefferson line. This all due to the banding of precipitation due to
an occluded front that is over the region. This front was pushed
inland and north ahead of the main upper low, which is now off the
north california coast. But, showers over the region will gradually
decreasing through rest of tonight into the early morning hours.

As the low off the northern calif coast shifts inland today, will see
showers increase again across much of southern and eastern oregon,
with showers increasing again this afternoon over the cascades and
areas to the south of portland. But, with more in way of clouds and
cooler conditions across the region today, there is little if any
support for thunderstorms for areas away from the cascades. Surface
instability not all that impressive over the cascades, but with
better instability east of the cascades, seems will have to see
thunderstorm threat ride the upper easterly flow westward. Any
thunderstorm that pops up east of the cascades has decent chance of
surviving as it pushes westward over the cascades. So, will keep just
a chance of thunderstorms for the high cascades, and hood river
valley, for this afternoon into this evening.

Once the upper low shifts into northern calif and into northern
nevada later tonight, showers will be decreasing from north to south
across our area. But, next system will be approaching from the west
on Monday. Looks like will see repeat of increasing showers again on
mon, though appears bulk of the showers will be later in the day into
mon night. As has been pattern, will see this low also drop to our
south, shifting into northern calif on tue. So, will see showers
gradually decrease from north to south on tue. rockey.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday... Rain eventually moves
out late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the upper low moves south
and east. Beyond this point, a shift away from the cool and wet looks
likely for the second half of next week. While ensemble guidance is
becoming a bit more aligned, the run-to-run variability in the models
continues to leave confidence a bit lower in the finer details of the
forecast. An upstream upper ridge and downstream upper trough will
likely leave the region in between the main systems. This could lead
to diurnal shower chances, especially near the cascades, while
impulses embedded in the flow may traverse the ridge and drop over
the region. Overall, continued near the nbm solution as a compromise,
which results in at least some mention of showers late in the week
but temperatures holding much closer to seasonal normal values.

Cullen

Aviation An occluded front continues to slowly lift to the
north through the early morning hours. CIGS will fluctuate
betweenVFR and MVFR through Sunday, with the potential for brief
periods of ifr. The timing of these lower ifr CIGS is difficult
but they are brief. Towards the midday on Sunday expect most
areas to become predominatelyVFR. However, models are showing a
wrap-around band of precipitation to develop primarily over the
northern part of the willamette valley. It cannot be ruled out
that thunderstorms could develop with these wrap-around
precipitation especially along the high cascades.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR with intermittent MVFR conditions
continue into Sunday morning. Showers should taper off between
13z- 16z as the occluded front lifts north. MVFR CIGS are
expected to early Sunday, which may persist through much of the
day. Another band of precipitation may also develop over the area
later Sunday afternoon and could bring the potential for
thunderstorms along the high cascades. 42

Marine An occluded front continues to slowly lift north
into washington waters this morning. Models show a surface low
will dropping south towards the central california coast Sunday.

This will allow weak high pressure to briefly build over our
coastal waters. This is expected to allow a period of fairly
benign winds. However, another low will approach the coast Monday,
then move onshore by early Tuesday around the southern
oregon northern california coast. This looks to produce another
round of solid small craft advisory southerly winds. It then
appears that high pres will return to the north pacific for the
second half of next week, bringing a return to gusty northerly
winds.

Seas are now sitting around 10 feet, and are being driven by a
combination of longer-period westerly swell and southerly fresh
swell. Expect them to remain around 9 to 10 ft and choppy with a
dominant period around 8 seconds. The westerly swell will become
more dominant Sunday and wave heights will subside to around 7
to 8 ft during the day. 42

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am pdt early
this morning for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 8 am
pdt this morning.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi37 min Calm G 1 53°F 58°F1005.8 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi73 min NW 7 G 7 51°F 56°F1005.5 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 33 mi49 min 55°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi31 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 52°F 58°F1005.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi49 min 55°F9 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi56 minW 37.00 miLight Rain52°F52°F100%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E7E8E8E9E10E10E10E11E11E9E8E6CalmNE9E5W12W14W6NE3NE4N4W3W3
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2 days agoE4CalmCalmW3N3N5N3CalmW4W5W5W3W8W13W9W9W8W9W10W8NW10NW7NW7W8

Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
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Sun -- 02:39 AM PDT     10.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:47 AM PDT     -2.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:49 PM PDT     9.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:48 PM PDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:52 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.89.510.610.79.67.34.41.2-1.5-2.2-1.10.83.15.47.48.798.16.54.42.41.82.74.6

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Washington
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South Bend
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Sun -- 01:56 AM PDT     11.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:27 AM PDT     -1.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:03 PM PDT     9.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:29 PM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.511.111.610.98.96.23.20.4-1.3-1.20.32.54.97.28.99.69.17.8642.62.74.16.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.