Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:48PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 9:44 AM PST (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 831 Am Pst Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory for rough bar in effect until 8 pm pst this evening... Combined seas 11 ft building 14 ft during the maximum ebbs. Bar conditions rough except severe during the late afternoon ebb. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 515 pm today and 545 am Thursday. The late afternoon ebb will be very strong with breakers likely.
PZZ100 831 Am Pst Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Northerly flow will develop today and then turn more northeasterly tonight and Thursday as high pressure moves over southern british columbia. A frontal system will reach the area on Friday. Northeasterly offshore flow will develop over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 201633
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
831 am pst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis An upper level trough will support showers across
southwest washington and northwest oregon today and tonight. Dry, but
cold weather is expected Thursday and Thursday night before a warm
front brings another round of rain and mountain snow Friday through
the weekend. The snow levels will start out relatively low Friday
morning, then rise to 1500 to 2000 feet in the afternoon. Showers are
likely to continue into early next week as the upper trough remains
over the pacific northwest.

Short term 830 am update: today through Friday night... Krtx dual
pol doppler radar at 16z showed shower activity across much of the
area. There have been reports of mixed precip near the valley floors
in heavier showers. The kttd profiler suggests the main snow level
was around 1000 ft at 16z. Webcams show sticking snow along highway
26 near brightwood (elev 1000 ft). Check on various cascade snotels
indicate around 5 to 10 inches of snow have fallen since Tue evening.

Will maintain the current advisories.

High pressure filling in behind the departing shortwave will result
in decreasing showers from north to south this afternoon through
tonight. North to northeast flow aloft will help to maintain a
relatively cold air mass over the area tonight. Gradual clearing
combined with this colder airmass will result in widespread
temperatures below freezing. Weak winds and lingering surface
moisture will likely result in areas of freezing fog developing late
tonight into early Thursday.

Dry weather continues Thursday and Thursday night as a transitory
upper ridge moves over the pacific nw. The fog should clear by early
afternoon in most places, but light north winds through the
willamette valley may result in later clearing of low clouds and fog
in the south willamette valley.

Another low drops south from alaska early Friday, and models are
consistent showing over-running precipitation returning
precipitation to SW washington and NW oregon Friday and Friday night.

The snow levels Fri morning will be around 500 ft. However, if precip
arrives a little sooner than expected, snow could fall to the valley
floors. At this point, any valley floor snowfall looks to be minimal
with little to no impact. Increasing onshore low-level flow Fri and
fri evening will raise snow levels. Weishaar

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Saturday
through Tuesday... Models begin the weekend in fairly good agreement,
with another cold upper trough with alaskan origins digging south
into the pacific northwest. A weak low coming down off the coast as
with previous systems, will enhance the chances for showers Friday
night through at least Saturday night. Thermal fields suggest
continued low snow levels, but not likely to impact valley floors
thanks in part to the low level onshore flow. The dynamics look
favorable through for accumulating snow down into the coast range and
cascade foothills. Showers likely to decrease Sunday and Sunday night
as onshore flow weakens.

Operational model solutions diverge sharply Sunday night through
Monday night, with ec most strongly indicating the weekend trough
weakening, and another east-west oriented upper trough redeveloping
further north along or north of the canadian border. A number of the
gefs perturbations, and eventually the GFS operational run shows
this trend, which will likely result in some warming of the air mass
early next week. For now prefer not to overly commit too much to the
ec or any other model for that matter given the uncertainties, but
will need to keep pops higher than operational GFS pops early next
week, more in line with a blend of nbm, ec and climatology.

Aviation Post frontal showers contiue today with a northwest
flow at the surface and aloft. Expect showers to diminish inthe
afternoon and evening as the flow becomes more northerly. Expect a
mix ofVFR and MVFR CIGS through about 23z, then conditions becoming
primarilyVFR. Mountains obscured at times through about 00z, then
gradual improvement afterwards is expected. There is a chance that
inland TAF sites may have ifr fog develop after 10z tonight.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR prevailing but occasional MVFR CIGS are
possible through about 21z. Showers taper off late in the day and
evening. There is chance of ifr conditions in fog after 10-12z.

Marine Northwest winds gusting to 30 kt today are expected to
weaken below small craft advisory levels as they turn to the
northeast tonight, and continue northeast through Thursday. Another
frontal system dropping down from the north Friday turns winds back
to the west. This system appears to be a little weaker than the
previous system, but is still likely to bring small craft wind gusts
from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Seas peaking today from 14 to 17 feet. Seas gradually subsiding
through the day Thursday, eventually dropping below 10 feet late
Thursday night. Seas build back up above 10 feet on sat.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for
cascade foothills in lane county-cascades in lane county-
northern oregon cascade foothills-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for south
washington cascades.

Winter weather advisory until noon pst today for south
washington cascade foothills.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 6 pm pst this evening for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 6 pm this evening
to 10 pm pst Thursday for coastal waters from cape
shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until midnight pst tonight for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from midnight tonight
to 10 pm pst Thursday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa
to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Thursday for waters from
cascade head to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 4 am to 10 pm pst
Thursday for waters from cascade head to florence or from
10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pst Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi44 min E 1.9 G 4.1 39°F 44°F1011.4 hPa (+0.4)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi68 min E 7 G 8 38°F 46°F1011 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 33 mi44 min 47°F10 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi44 min WSW 4.1 G 6 42°F 40°F1011 hPa (+0.0)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi44 min 45°F10 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi51 minNE 61.75 miFog/Mist35°F34°F96%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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W4W5W3W5NW6W9W5W5N4NE4NE4NE6
1 day agoE3CalmCalmW5W3W8W9W6SW5SW7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmW3Calm
2 days agoE7E9E7NE6E6SE4SW5W7W5W3CalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE5NE3CalmCalmE5CalmNE5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
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Wed -- 02:45 AM PST     11.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM PST     1.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:06 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:30 PM PST     12.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:26 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:24 PM PST     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.59.610.911.210.17.95.32.92357.49.611.412.512.410.884.61.3-0.8-0.713.5

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Washington
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South Bend
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM PST     10.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:07 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:40 PM PST     11.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:26 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:04 PM PST     -1.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.31010.59.67.85.43.11.41.32.95.47.910.111.611.810.68.25.22-0.6-1.7-0.91.44.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.