Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:36PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 11:57 AM PST (19:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:46PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 845 am pst Tue nov 20 2018 combined seas 2 to 4 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet tonight. Bar conditions light. The maximum ebb currents will occur around 230 pm today and 245 am Wednesday.
PZZ100 845 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Offshore flow will prevail today with strong high pressure east of the cascades. South to southeast flow will increase tonight as a front approaches from the west. This system will split and weaken as it moves inland on Wednesday. A stronger pacific frontal system will impact the region on Thursday with gales possible. The flow will remain onshore through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 201748
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
948 am pst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis Offshore flow will continue today over the area but the
ridge of high pressure that has blocked storms from entering oregon
and washington is moving east and will leave the door open for storms
beginning on Wednesday. The first front will move into the area
Wednesday. Another stronger front will move into the area on
thanksgiving, bringing rain, gusty winds to the coast and snow to the
cascades. Cooler weather will continue into the weekend with a
possibility of slightly dryer weather, but wet weather is expected
again next week.

Short term Today through thanksgiving... Fog freezing fog in the
southern willamette valley so far not appearing to show much of a
decaying trend. Given the stable air mass, will need to extend the
freezing fog advisory out several more hours for the south valley
area. Clouds fog also being persistent in the upper hood river
valley, so will need to acknowledge in a forecast update there as
well. Otherwise a mostly sunny day still in store for the rest of
the area, with east winds continuing through the west end of the
gorge.

Remainder of short term discussion unchanged... Upper low off
northern california is moving slowly closer with a front extending
well off the pacific northwest coast. This system will move onshore
Wednesday morning bringing rain and some snow to santiam and
willamette pass and the higher cascades. Snow levels may be near or
just above government camp Wednesday and Wednesday evening but there
could be an inch or so of wet snow. The valleys will get some light
rain.

Models are now in good agreement with a strong system moving in on
thanksgiving and lowering snow levels down to all the passes. Snow
amounts at the pass levels should be in the 1 to 3 inch range
Thursday but heavier snow will fall higher up and at the ski areas.

Models finally in good agreement with the timing of the cold front
moving through Thu afternoon with the next system. With moisture
concentrated more in the low to mid levels and better dynamic lift,
categorical pops will be in order Thu afternoon, with a bit heavier
rainfall potential. As the upper level moisture moves there is a
chance that some light freezing rain could fall at the east end of
the gorge and in the white salmon area, hood river and upper hood
river valley. If the precipitation moves in later then it will
probably be all rain. The front appears strong enough with a good
southerly gradient. This could result in a low end high wind event at
the headlands. Ws

Long term Thursday night through Monday... Previous discussion
follows... Onshore flow following the front expected to keep chances
for showers high Thu night, ESP over the mountains with orographic
lift. Snow levels should be below cascade pass levels Thu night,
making some ac accumulating snow as passes likely. Models fairly
consistent in showing a strong shortwave swinging across the pacific
nw Fri in a NW flow along the backside of the upper trough. With the
baroclinic zone lingering, will see chances for rain remain
relatively high through fri. Models suggesting drying weather fri
night and Sat as an upper ridge moves back in, but details are not
well agreed upon and there remains sufficient doubt in the evolution
of things from Sat and beyond into mon, to keep chances for showers
going through the end of the extended period.

Aviation Weak offshore flow continues today. Expect fog and
freezing fog to linger over portions of the willamette valley
south of ksle through around 21z. Otherwise, conditions remain
vfr with increasing mid and high clouds ahead of an approaching
frontal system. Gusty east winds will persist near the gorge
through tonight, with gusts to 30 kt near kttd. Rain looks to
move onto the coast by sunrise tomorrow morning, spreading inland
through the morning hours.

Pdx and approaches... MainlyVFR the next 24 hours. Will continue
to see increasing mid and high clouds today ahead of an
approaching frontal system. Gusty east winds continue east of
the terminal. Rain looks likely after sunrise tomorrow morning.

64

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows... Benign
conditions continue early this morning, but a big change is on
the way, starting later today, as the first in a series of fronts
will cross over the waters later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Seas which are currently around 2-3 ft will be gradually
building through the day today ahead of this front. And southerly
winds will start to ramp up this afternoon. Expect high-end
small craft advisory winds with this first front, with widespread
gusts to 25 to 30 kt. We may see a few isolated gusts to 35 kt,
particularly right as the front is moving through Wednesday
morning. While there is some offshore wind component to keep
winds lighter over the nearshore waters through much of this
event, I think that as the front moves through, we do have a
period where gusts to 20 to 30 kt over the nearshore waters are
likely, so went ahead and added a small craft advisory for winds
after midnight on Wednesday through much of Wednesday morning.

Also added a small craft advisory for hazardous seas for the
nearshore waters, as seas should increase to around 10 ft on
Wednesday as well.

After a brief lull late Wednesday, another even stronger system
will arrive on Thursday. The forecast models are getting into
better agreement on the track of the secondary low that will be
the driver for winds over our waters. Only question now is
timing. Latest models are bringing it in earlier, but the ecmwf
continues to show the slower track, keeping uncertainty on
whether to believe the faster solutions until we see the next
couple runs of our forecast models. For now, left the timing
fairly similar to previous forecast. Still think solid gales
appear likely. If the secondary low develops and tracks similar
to our latest forecast runs from two of our three primary
forecast models, we could very well see a period of high-end
gales, or even storm force gusts. Right now have this possibility
in the forecast, though still some uncertainty. Seas will likely
also build into the mid-to-upper teens, with some potential for
seas above 20 ft.

Going into the weekend, the weather becomes a little quieter.

Seas should gradually come down through the day on Saturday. We
may see another, much weaker system clip our northern outer
waters Saturday night, but forecast models are not in great
agreement through the weekend into early next week, so confidence
is fairly low. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Freezing fog advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for south
willamette valley.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm
pst Wednesday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 10 pm this evening
to 10 pm pst Wednesday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa
to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from midnight tonight to 4 pm
pst Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa
to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 10 am to 10 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi58 min E 8.9 G 11 48°F 51°F1013 hPa (-0.5)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi82 min E 11 G 14 48°F 52°F1013.1 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi58 min N 8 G 12 51°F 50°F1013.1 hPa (+0.0)
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 33 mi58 min 51°F2 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi58 min 53°F3 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi65 minE 108.00 miFair47°F41°F80%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E12E10E10E8NE5E6E8E8E10E6NE6NE6E8NE8E9E9E9E8NE8E8E8NE7E10
1 day agoE13E11E11E10NE7NE7NE6NE5E9E7E7NE7NE7E8NE7E7E7NE8NE7E10E10E9E11E10
2 days agoNE11NE12NE15NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
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Tue -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:49 AM PST     2.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:40 AM PST     10.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:35 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:36 PM PST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.77.55.94.32.82.43.24.76.48.19.610.610.79.67.65.331.20.923.55.378.4

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Washington
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South Bend
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Tue -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:39 AM PST     2.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM PST     10.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:36 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:21 PM PST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:43 PM PST     8.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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86.85.33.72.42.23.356.78.49.710.39.88.36.34.120.70.92.345.77.48.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.