Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willapa, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 4:57PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 11:25 AM PST (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:33AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 848 Am Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory for rough bar in effect through late tonight... Combined seas 11 to 13 ft. Bar conditions rough. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 415 pm today and 445 am Wednesday morning. The afternoon ebb will be strong.
PZZ100 848 Am Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Small craft advisory level winds likely over most waters today. A front is forecast to arrive Wednesday resulting in gale force winds to most waters. More fronts will keep the weather vigorous through the end of the week. Westerly swells higher than 25 feet are possible on the coast Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willapa, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 161723
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
923 am pst Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis Showers will decrease today as low pressure moves north
into the gulf of alaska. Another low will approach the coast tonight
and Wednesday then stall offshore the british columbia coast Thursday
and Friday. This low will bring a dry warm front to the area
Wednesday followed by a moist cold front Wednesday night and
Thursday. Steady showers are expected Thursday and Friday with snow
levels below the cascade passes. Showers continue this weekend as the
low weakens and moves inland.

Short term Today through Friday. Forecast remains on track this
morning, with only a few minor adjustment to pop and sky cover
elements to better match radar satellite trends. Main line of showers
has lifted north of the forecast area with only light showers for any
particular portion of the region through the day. Remainder of
previous short term discussion remains valid and follows below.

Satellite imagery shows another low just SW of the low mentioned
above. This will bring a period of active weather tonight through
at least Friday as it slowly moves east across the NE pacific. A warm
front will brush by the area late tonight and Wednesday morning for a
chance of rain along the coast and for extreme SW washington.

Precipitation will be rather light with this system, with most areas
not seeing any rain. The main impact of this front will be the warm
air advection warming temperatures into the upper 50s Wednesday
afternoon. This warmer air mass will also raise the snow levels well
above the cascade passes.

A moist cold front will then bring rain to the coast late Wednesday
afternoon reaching the cascades Wednesday night. The rain will be
heavy at times and may last through Thursday morning. Rainfall totals
are expected to be between 0.75 to 1.5 inch from Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning. The highest rainfall amounts will be over
the washington and oregon cascades with the lightest totals expected
for the central and south willamette valley. This front will also
bring a brief burst of gusty winds to the coast Wednesday evening
with gusts around 45 mph for the beaches and headlands.

Colder air will move in behind the front Thursday and snow levels
will lower down to the cascade passes. The low will stall just
offshore the british columbia coast for an extended period of showery
weather. This will provide the opportunity for the snow pack to
rebuild over the cascades. The snow levels will lower down to 2500
-3000 feet Thursday night or Friday morning. Do not expect a dumping
of cascade snow, but an extended period of steady light snow
accumulations with 1 to 4 inches of snow every 6 hours or so Thursday
and Friday.

The slow moving nature of the low pressure system will generate a
very large ocean swell that will materialize into extremely hazardous
surf along the beaches. This surf coupled with strong high tides may
lead to coastal flooding late Wednesday night through Friday. Tj

Long term Friday night through Monday... The pac NW will remain
in an active weather pattern through the end of the forecast period.

Models show a series of wet frontal systems moving across the
forecast area over the weekend for another round of heavy rain,
strong winds, and cascade snow. However, impacts over the weekend
remain a bit fuzzy at the moment due to distinct differences in
timing, strength and location of the various systems. Nonetheless, it
is becoming increasingly likely that the cascades could get several
inches of new snow this weekend. In addition, we could also see sharp
rises on some of the local rivers. Showers return Monday as the upper
level trough moves across the pac nw. 64 tj

Aviation GenerallyVFR across the area at 17z, but there are
localized areas of ifr to MVFR in the interior valleys and
central columbia river gorge. ExpectVFR to prevail across the
forecast area through at least 09z wed. Warm-frontal
precipitation develops along the coast during the evening and
then spreads inland overnight. Likely to have MVFR stratus in the
central columbia gorge this evening through tonight as offshore
low-level flow intensifies.

Pdx and approaches...VFR to be the dominant flight category at
the terminal through 12z wed. A few showers possible through
early afternoon, but CIGS to remain AOB 040. East wind at the
west end of the gorge has weakened this morning, but will
intensify after 03z wed. Weishaar

Marine Convective gusts to 25 kt to continue through this
afternoon. Wind will begin backing to more southeast early
evening. A strong surface low center is forecast to deepen to
around 960 mb tonight. This low will be centered near 45n, 138w
this afternoon and then move northeast to near haida gwaii by
13z Wednesday. It will send a warm front across the waters late
tonight with a strong trailing cold front late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect solid gales to push from west to east tomorrow
as the cold front approaches and have upgraded the gale watch to
a warning. 12z guidance shows the potential for a brief period of
50-55 kt gusts late Wed afternoon, primarily over the outer
waters. Will contemplate the need for a storm warning in the
afternoon forecast. Post frontal gales should continue for the
outer waters Thu but ease back to SCA level speeds inside of
about 30 nm. 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF similar to their previous
runs indicating another round of gale force wind possible late
sat night into sun.

Seas will continue in the lower teens today then build to the
upper teens by mid-day Wednesday. A rather potent dynamic fetch
situation is expected to develop over the offshore waters
associated with the strong low pressure system. The highest seas
are expected to move inside 60 nm by daybreak Thursday. The 06z
spectral guidance and enp graphical output have come more in line
with the earlier ECMWF runs indicating peak wave heights near 30
ft late Wed night early Thu morning. The ECMWF remains about 2-4
ft lower.

There is growing confidence that areas of the shoreline will be
highly impacted beginning late Wed night by the expected large
waves. The local coastal flood index tool gives an output value
of 23. Coastal flood warning criteria is 22. The forecast value
assumes a slightly higher tidal anomaly. In any event, 30-33 ft
west swell with 15-18 second periods will contain an enormous
amount of energy. One thing to keep in mind is there will likely
be isolated higher waves. Seas diminish fri, but will remain at
least 15-20 ft into sun. Seas likely to exceed 20 ft again sat
night and sun. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 2 am pst Wednesday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 2 am Wednesday to 10 am pst Thursday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pst Wednesday for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Gale warning from 10 am Wednesday to 4 am pst Thursday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
10 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 am
pst Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 16 mi38 min S 12 G 15 51°F 49°F1022.7 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 28 mi50 min SSW 14 G 20 51°F 49°F1022 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi38 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 52°F 1022.9 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 33 mi56 min 49°F12 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 40 mi56 min 51°F11 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA26 mi33 minS 116.00 miFog/Mist51°F46°F86%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE16
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1 day agoE13E14E12E11E9E10NE6E12E11E12E11E12E10E11NE8NE9E10E8E11E12E11E10E12E15
2 days agoNE10NE6NE8NE9NE11NE12NE14NE17NE13NE11NE11E13NE11NE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Willapa City, Willapa River, Washington
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Willapa City
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Tue -- 01:58 AM PST     9.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM PST     4.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:31 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:13 PM PST     11.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:31 PM PST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.19.39.79.286.654.55.36.78.29.610.711.3119.57.44.92.50.70.61.73.35.1

Tide / Current Tables for South Bend, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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South Bend
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:21 AM PST     8.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM PST     3.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:32 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:38 PM PST     10.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:13 PM PST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.58.38.27.46.14.63.43.34.467.691010.19.27.55.22.70.5-0.7-0.31.234.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.