Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 1:44 AM   Moonset 10:00 AM

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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 239 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 30 2024
combined seas 7 to 9 ft subsiding to 6 or 7 ft Wednesday morning. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 1045 pm today and 1045 am and 1215 am Thursday.

PZZ100 239 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Low level flow becoming onshore tonight with surface high pressure building over the coastal waters. System moving southeast through the coastal waters Wednesday night moving into northern oregon early Thursday morning. Weak high pressure over the waters Thursday night into Friday. NExt system splitting as it moves into the waters Friday night into Saturday. Another system arriving late in the weekend.

FXUS66 KPQR 302257 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 357 PM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cool late season storm will move east of the area overnight and result in showers and thunderstorms decreasing this evening. Very brief drying and warming arrives on Wednesday before the next system arrives Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Another wetter system will arrive Friday night/Saturday with unsettled weather continuing into early next week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday...Satellite and radar show scattered showers that have bubbled up as daytime heating has warmed inland locations under a cold air mass aloft. Isolated and short lived thunderstorms will primarily confined to the eastern Willamette Valley late this afternoon and early this evening. Between freezing levels near 3000 feet and surfaced based CAPE values of 500 J/kg as analyzed by the RAP, small hail will accompany the stronger showers and thunderstorms. Models are in good agreement an upper level shortwave trough and an attendant surface low pressure will shift east of the region overnight. This will decrease showers and thunderstorm chances from west to east through this evening.

The current Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades between the South Washington Cascades and Marion/Linn County Cascades remains in effect through this evening, as convection may bring heavy snow showers at times. Those traveling through the passes (highways 20/22/26) today should prepare for winter weather conditions. No plans to extend this Winter Weather Advisory, but be prepared for wet surfaced to freeze overnight across the mountain passes/Cascades.

Tonight into tomorrow (Wednesday), conditions dry as this system pushes east and upper level high pressure builds. We will see some cloud breaks tonight, with low stratus and chances of fog (20-30%) in the Coast Range and valleys. With clouds breaking, radiational cooling can occur and thus cause frost development. NBM probabilities for Wednesday morning's lows below 36 degrees are around 60-80% in the Coast Range and Willapa Hills, and 10-20% in the Willamette Valley. HRRR suggestshigher chances in the Tualatin Valley and mainly Yamhill and Polk counties so have opted to issue a Frost Advisory for these areas. Some uncertainty remains with frost development because there remains differences between models in how much clearing will take place overnight versus stratus backbuilding off the Cascades and Coast Range.

Temperatures warm up slightly on Wednesday, with highs in the lower/mid 50s along the coast and Coast Range, upper 50s/low 60s for inland valleys, and 40s in the Cascades. The next system looks to arrive Wednesday night/Thursday morning, bringing another round of precipitation, including 1 to 4 inches of snow across the Cascades above 4000 feet.
-JH

LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...The WPC clusters suggest weak shortwave ridging will traverse the PNW early Friday. While the day appears to start off dry, NBM PoPs will climb to 80-90% by Friday evening as the next warm front pushes towards the region. The NBM and our official forecast currently have between 0.50 and 1 inch of rain falling Friday night into early Saturday in the Willamette Valley and 1 to 2 inches in the Coast Range and Cascades. The EPS generally shows between 1 to 1.5 inches in the Willamette Valley and 2 to 3 inches in the Coast Range and Cascades. Given reservoirs are near full for water supply, the highest end scenario does bring some concern to hydrology issues along the Willamette River. Fortunately this still appears to be a less than 10% chance of occurring, but we will need to monitor if more ensemble guidance falls in line with the bulk of the EPS data.

WPC cluster guidance suggests a low probability of less than 20% that the Saturday storm system drops far enough south that we dry out Sunday. The rest of the ensemble guidance generally suggests we will remain under the influence of the Saturday storm system and keep rain chances going into Sunday. There is good agreement systems that another storm system will enter the PNW Monday into Tuesday and keep the area cool and wet.
-JH

AVIATION
Conditions are continue to produce a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions, but these trend towards VFR as high pressure continues to build in throughout the afternoon. Clearing is starting to occur in the Willamette Valley, allowing for a possibility of a short-lived thunderstorm or two throughout the afternoon before 02z Wed. However, latest high-resolution model guidance is trending towards instability being weaker than previously forecast, and chances have likely decreased to 15-20%, weaker in going southward where temperatures aloft are warmer aloft.

Precipitation ends at all terminals by 04z Wed, and the rest of the TAF period sees dry conditions due to weak high pressure building in. Southerly winds at southern terminals are currently gusting to around 20-24 kts, but will decrease rapidly once the area begins to dry out. In the latter half of Tuesday night, high resolution model guidance points to a 30-40% chance of IFR conditions due to fog or low clouds forming. However, other statistical model guidance has considerably lower chances. For now, guessing that chances will be around 25-30% chance of IFR conditions across inland terminals at that time. /JLiu

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
There is no estimated time of full repair and restoration for this location.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Current MVFR conditions will give way to predominantly VFR around 22z Tue as the main band of rain passes to the east. Afterwards there will be a period of a few stray showers, but these will be isolated. Instability looks weaker than previously forecast, with threat of a stray mid/late afternoon thunderstorm having dropped to 15-20%. All precipitation ends 04z Wed, and VFR conditions with weak variable winds are expected afterwards. High resolution model guidance points towards fog or low stratus being a possibility 11-16z Wed, with around a 25-30% chance of IFR thresholds being met at that time. /JLiu

MARINE
Observations from buoy 46050 show wind gusts continuing to barely meet Small Craft Advisory criteria, with gusts just barely above 20 kt. Seas remain around 8-10 ft at 11 seconds through the afternoon, slowly decreasing going into the evening. High pressure continues building, and over Tuesday night, winds will become very weak and seas drop to 4-6 ft by the end of the night. More active weather then returns later Wednesday into Thursday as another low approaches the waters. /JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ104-106-109-114.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for ORZ126- 127.

WA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for WAZ203.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for WAZ211.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.

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Raymond
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:00 AM PDT     4.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:36 AM PDT     9.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:06 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM PDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Raymond, Washington, Tide feet

Palix River
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Tue -- 12:15 AM PDT     3.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:34 AM PDT     8.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:01 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:20 PM PDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM PDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Palix River, south fork, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

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