Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raymond, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday January 18, 2018 5:28 AM PST (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:49AMMoonset 6:49PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 252 Am Pst Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory for rough bar in effect through late tonight... Combined seas 20 to 25 feet with breakers covering the bar. Bar conditions severe. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 515 am and 515 pm today. The afternoon ebb will be strong.
PZZ100 252 Am Pst Thu Jan 18 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A deep and expansive low centered near 51n 134w will fill as it moves slowly east toward the northern tip of vancouver island Friday night. Tight pressure gradients associated with this low will give gales to the coastal waters and small craft advisory conditions to the inland waters through this evening. Combined seas 30 to 35 feet will affect the coastal waters through this evening. Additional fronts will reach the waters later Saturday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raymond, WA
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location: 46.68, -123.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 181206 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Update
national weather service portland or
406 am pst Thu jan 18 2018
updated marine and aviation

Synopsis Strong low pressure off the british columbia coast is
pushing a cold front slowly eastward across the pac NW this morning.

This system is sending large surf toward the coast, which will
combine with high tides for some coastal flooding in low lying areas.

Meanwhile showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through
this evening as cool air moves in aloft. Snow levels will lower below
the cascade passes today, then likely remain below pass level for the
next several days. Cool onshore flow will cause showers to continue
through Saturday, then the next front will bring steadier rain and
mountain snow Sunday. Active weather looks to persist well into next
week.

Short term Today through Saturday... Infrared satellite shows an
impressive mature low pressure system off the british columbia coast,
where nearby buoys indicate surface pressure briefly fell below 970
mb as the low passed overhead. This system pushed a cold front across
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, which has since crossed the
cascades into eastern wa or. Perhaps more relevant to the coast is
the very large and dangerous surf this system is producing. The high
surf and high tides are combining to increase the threat of coastal
flooding, and a coastal flood warning remains in effect through
midnight tonight. More about this impressive high surf in the marine
section below.

Based on surface pressure, satellite and lightning trends, it appears
a weak shortwave riding along the front caused a weak surface low to
form off the northern oregon coast late Wed evening. This system
produced an impressive amount of lightning along and off the coast
from roughly tillamook northward. Buoy 46029 reported a questionable
62 knot (71 mph) gust right as one of these thunderstorms moved over
it at about 1250 am this morning. While the report is a bit of an
outlier, klgx radar did pick up winds on the order of 55-65 kt at
4000 feet. Whether or not these actually surfaced will likely be for
only the buoy and perhaps a sea lion or two to know. Nevertheless,
the batch of showers associated with the developing low appears to be
moving onshore and off to the northeast, and should be long gone by
sunrise.

The core of cold air aloft associated with this system will move
onshore this afternoon and evening. The 00z 06z GFS convective
indices and NAM bufr soundings show marginal instability moving
inland as 500 mb temps fall to -32 to -34 deg c. Past experience
suggests this may be a bit overdone, but even -30 to -32 deg c would
be enough to produce some weak instability with surface temperatures
in the upper 40s. Decided to add the mention of thunder inland this
afternoon and evening as a result. With freezing levels lowering, any
heavy showers or thunderstorms have the potential to produce small
hail; we have already had spotter reports of bb to pea sized hail
from the thunderstorms along the coast early this morning. If enough
sunbreaks occur to trigger strong updrafts at the surface, the
low-level shear profile appears favorable for some longevity to any
cells that develop, and a couple stronger cells with slightly larger
hail, gusty winds, and perhaps even a funnel cloud cannot be ruled
out today. Convective allowing guidance seems to suggest at least
isolated convection is likely this afternoon in the willamette
valley.

Cool onshore flow will cause showers to persist through Saturday,
with a shortwave providing some enhancement Fri night Sat morning.

The risk of thunder looks less after tonight as temps warm slightly
aloft. Onshore flow will eventually weaken Saturday as our next
system approaches from the pacific. This should result in a break in
the showers sometime late Saturday, but any break will probably be
brief with the next round of steady rain and cascade snow arriving by
Sunday morning. Weagle

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... Fairly zonal flow
will be in place over the central and eastern north pacific, likely
keeping our weather active well into next week. Models show decent
agreement that a frontal system will move through the forecast area
Sunday, though there are some disagreements regarding the strength of
the front and whether or not split flow tries to develop off the west
coast. The 00z ECMWF took an interesting turn as it develops a 993 mb
low off the oregon coast Tuesday, eventually curling it north and
moving it onshore near the olympic peninsula. The 00z 06z GFS were
more splitty with the pacific jet energy, not showing as much phasing
between the northern and subtropical jets. If the 00z ECMWF pans out,
we will probably need to watch the gorge for some sort of
frozen freezing precip. Both the 00z ECMWF and the 06z GFS then come
back into agreement that much colder air comes in behind this system
Wednesday and Thursday. For now, went with fairly high pops in
general for the extended forecast period, with temps near to perhaps
a couple degrees below normal. weagle

Aviation MostlyVFR today and tonight this evening. Isolated
thunderstorms may produce lightning, thunder, gusty winds, and small
hail through this evening. Flight conditions may temporarily reduce
to MVFR with any heavier showers.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conditions with showers today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through this evening and may
result in brief and periodic MVFR conditions. ~tj

Marine There are multiple marine hazards today as a low
pressure remains just offshore of the british columbia coast and a
series of upper level shortwaves move over the region. Gales,
extremely large seas, and thunderstorms. Buoy 89, which is around 90
miles offshore peaked at 37 feet at 17 seconds around midnight last
night. The west swell should be reaching its peak heights for the
waters right now at 32-35 feet. The seas will subside to 20-25 feet
tonight, then below 20 feet by Friday afternoon. Gales should end to
the south this afternoon and to the north in the evening. Small
craft advisory winds will follow the gales and persist through late
Friday night.

Another strong front is expected late in the weekend. Gales are
expected Saturday night. Models hint of possible storm force gusts
with the frontal passage Sunday morning. Seas will likely exceed 20
feet for a brief period on Sunday. Another front is likely on
Tuesday for another round of gales and 20 ft+ seas. ~tj

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Coastal flood warning until midnight pst tonight for central
oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... Coastal flood warning until midnight pst tonight for south
washington coast.

Pz... Gale warning until 7 pm pst this evening for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 60 nm.

Gale warning until 4 pm pst this afternoon for coastal waters
from cascade head or to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 am
pst Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 11 mi40 min SSW 16 G 21 50°F 49°F1007.8 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 24 mi52 min SSW 18 G 23 49°F 49°F1007 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 28 mi28 min 49°F28 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi40 min S 8.9 G 15 48°F 1008.3 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 38 mi88 min 51°F36 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA24 mi35 minSSE 147.00 miOvercast47°F43°F86%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Raymond, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Raymond
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM PST     9.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:57 AM PST     3.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:48 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:53 PM PST     10.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:49 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:33 PM PST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.189.19.38.57.15.54.23.74.35.77.59.210.410.810.18.463.51.3-0-0.112.9

Tide / Current Tables for Palix River, south fork, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Palix River
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:39 AM PST     9.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM PST     3.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:49 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:54 PM PST     10.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:50 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:47 PM PST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.17.88.99.18.47.25.94.63.84.25.77.48.89.810.19.68.26.34.22.30.80.41.53.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.