Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Bend, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:03 AM PST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:40PMMoonset 11:53PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 848 pm pst Wed nov 14 2018 combined seas 6 to 8 feet. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 900 pm tonight and 1015 am and 1015 pm Thursday.
PZZ100 848 Pm Pst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Gradients and winds will subside tonight. A second system will move through Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Small craft advisory conditions likely again for the coastal waters, west entrance, and northern inland waters. In wake of this system, offshore flow will return for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA
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location: 46.69, -123.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 150546 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
947 pm pst Wed nov 14 2018
updated aviation section

Synopsis Northwest flow aloft will be over the pacific northwest
for the next couple of days. A disturbance within the flow moves
through washington and extreme northwest oregon Thursday night for a
threat of light precipitation. The flow aloft becomes more northerly
by Friday afternoon. Strong high pressure returns to the area over
the weekend and continues into early next week. This will also result
in another round of offshore low-level flow.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... Water vapor imagery early
this afternoon shows a couple of weak short-waves moving across the
pacific northwest in a consolidated 500 mb flow pattern. As of 20z
the kttd-kdls gradient finally went slightly positive. Temperatures
in the central gorge and upper hood river valley have risen into the
lower to mid 40s as of 21z. The 12z NAM indicates surface high
pressure centered over the south washington cascades and the central
gorge this evening. There may be a short period of west wind through
the gorge, but certainly not very strong.

Northwest flow aloft continues Thursday. Models show a developing
short-wave in british columbia Thu afternoon, which eventually
reaches the northern part of the forecast area late Thu night and fri
morning. Surface high pres over the area Thu will lead to valley
inversions and limited mixing ventilation. The NAM does show the
kttd-kdls gradient of around 2 mb by 00z fri. This should be enough
to give some west wind and better overall mixing through the gorge
and into the upper hood river valley. The bulk of the aforementioned
short-wave slides through washington, but 500 mb cyclonic curvature
will allow for a threat of precip over the far north zones Thu night
through Fri morning. The bigger impact of this disturbance will be a
shift to more north flow aloft, setting the stage for a return to
offshore flow. The NAM indicates 3-4 mb offshore gradient through the
gorge Fri evening and then strengthening to 8-9 mb by 12z sat. This
would result in 65-75 mph wind gusts at crown point.

Air quality will become more of an issue late Friday through the
weekend. Forecast mixing heights Fri look to be sufficient to
maintain reasonable air quality. There will be enough north low-level
flow through the willamette valley and clark county to alleviate
pollution build-up. However, by Sat 500 mb high pressure is centered
over the area and transport wind is expected to be rather weak.

Strengthening offshore flow Sat will help some areas, as it will be
more of a synoptic-scale feature. As the offshore flow strengthens
and the cold air layer deepens late Sat it will eventually become
more of a gap-flow pattern, more confined to the gorge. This
transition will lead to increasing air quality concerns later in the
weekend. Weishaar

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday. The strong upper
level ridge over the eastern pacific shifts inland over the pacific
northwest. East winds will likely persist through the columbia river
gorge for the start of next week, but elsewhere winds will remain
rather light which could lead to stagnant conditions under the
developing inversion. This pattern will remain in place through at
least early Tuesday until the next front arrives, but forecast
models diverge more significantly by midweek. In particular, the
deterministic ECMWF is about 24 hours faster with the next frontal
system, bringing it into the region early Tuesday. Trended the
forecast towards the nbm, which better reflects the timing in the
gfs and ensemble mean solutions. This brings the highest (likely
category) pops into the region early Wednesday. Cullen

Aviation A wide range of conditions across the area with most
terminals centered around low end MVFR and ifr. Spotty locations are
lifr as skies clear out and remaining minimal winds ease. Expect all
the TAF terminals will fall into vlifr CIGS vsbys under fog at some
point through the night as winds remain very light or calm. There
will not be much mixing due to wind tomorrow so expect fog will lift
to lifr vsbys CIGS near 15 18-20z. Most areas will lift toVFR as
the stratus clears thereafter. Conditions will start deteriorating
at kast, keug, and khio as thin high clouds, if any, will allow for
quick radiational cooling and low cloud fog development from 16 00-
06z.

Pdx and approaches... MVFR stratus deck expected to break up enough
within the next few hours. This is expected to result in fog or low
stratus taking the field below published approach minimums in time
for the boxer arrivals. Am uncertain as to how long conditions will
remain that low, but gave 15 16z as a first guess based on lamp
guidance. Would think 18z will be the latest, however.VFR under
light winds through 16 06z but do expect another round of poor
conditions again tomorrow night. Jbonk

Marine Allowed SCA for winds to expire as s-sw winds decreased
considerably with the passage of a weak front earlier today.

Swell behind the front will likely build to around 9-10 ft by
thu morning, so we have issued a SCA for seas Thu until seas
subside below 10 ft Thu evening. The incoming west swell is
likely to lead to rough bar conditions during the ebbs.

Conditions likely ease through the day Friday. High pressure will
strengthen inland, leading to increasing n-ne winds Fri night,
eventually veering more ne-e over the weekend. Some localized
gusts 25-30 kt will be possible in the offshore flow over the
weekend, mainly below gaps in the coastal terrain. Weagle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 4 am to 8 pm pst
Thursday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 8 pm to
11 pm pst this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 8 am to
1 pm pst Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 8 mi34 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 50°F 51°F1028.9 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi88 min S 7 G 8.9 51°F 51°F1028.5 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 25 mi34 min 53°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi34 min SSE 4.1 G 6 49°F 51°F1029 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi34 min 52°F7 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA22 mi71 minE 42.50 miFog/Mist51°F51°F100%1029.1 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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S18S13S11S10S13SW11SW8SW5SW5SW3CalmCalmS43S4SW5E4E4Calm
1 day agoE9NE6NE8NE7NE5NE7NE6NE6NE7NE6NE5NE4NE4E3E4E4E6E7NE4NE6NE5E4E5NE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Washington
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Mailboat Slough
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Thu -- 12:11 AM PST     1.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:01 AM PST     7.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:40 PM PST     4.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:39 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:22 PM PST     7.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:52 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.82.94.15.36.57.57.97.66.75.95.14.54.455.96.77.27.67.66.85.54.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:29 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:35 AM PST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:05 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:19 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM PST     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:09 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 PM PST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:14 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:13 PM PST     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:53 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.50.51.11.31.41.30.90.1-0.8-1.2-1.5-1.4-0.8-0.10.40.60.50.30.1-0.5-1.4-1.9-2.1-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.