Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Bend, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:01PM Friday January 19, 2018 8:56 AM PST (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:22AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 232 Am Pst Fri Jan 19 2018
.small craft advisory for rough bar in effect through late tonight... Combined seas 15 to 20 feet with breakers around maximum ebb currents. Bar conditions severe. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 6 am and 545 pm.
PZZ100 232 Am Pst Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A deep low centered near 50n 131w will fill as it moves into central british columbia this evening. Pressure gradients will remain rather tight through tonight and will result in small craft advisory conditions across the waters. Seas over the coastal waters will slowly subside through tonight. A strong front will move through the waters Saturday night and early Sunday. The active weather pattern will continue through the upcoming week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA
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location: 46.69, -123.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 191106
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
305 am pst Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis An upper level trough of low pressure will make its way
across the pacific NW through tonight, keeping the region in a cool
and showery air mass. Large waves at the coast will ease later today
with more typical wave heights Saturday. A weak ridge of high
pressure Saturday will temporarily decrease the showers, but then
another system arrives Sunday for more rain and mountain snow. An
active weather pattern continues next week, and it looks like snow
levels will dip down into the lower foothills in the latter half of
the week.

Short term Today through Sunday... The strong low pressure system
which produced the large and dangerous surf Thursday is in the
process of weakening while approaching vancouver island and the
olympic peninsula. Cool, unsettled onshore flow will continue to push
showers across the forecast area through tonight, falling as snow in
the cascades. Small hail will be possible with heavier showers due to
relatively low freezing levels.

The last remnants of the decaying low will move onshore later today
and tonight, bringing a surge in shower activity tonight. With
1000-500 mb thicknesses hovering around 530 dm, snow levels will
generally remain around 2500 feet. With this system weakening as it
moves onshore, orographic lift will be modest in the cascades.

General 3 to 6 inch totals are expected from the snow showers in the
cascades through tonight, which is below advisory criteria. Valley
rain and mountain snow showers are expected to taper off Saturday as
a weak ridge of high pressure moves across the pac nw.

Any lull behind this system will be brief, as our next low pressure
system is already in the process of crossing the gulf of alaska. This
system will push another robust pacific frontal system toward the pac
nw coast, with rain spreading onshore by Sunday morning. 12z and 00z
ecmwf ensembles, 00z uw wrf-gfs, and the 06z NAM all suggest winds
will reach or exceed warning criteria for the coast, though the
easterly component to the pressure gradients will likely keep the
stronger winds confined to the beaches, headlands, and adjacent
coastal waters. Given this good model agreement, we will issue a high
wind watch for the beaches and headlands in all our coastal zones.

This event looks marginal; given latest guidance, 55-65 mph gusts are
most likely for the beaches and headlands. There is still some chance
that a strong pacific jet develops a secondary low along the front
somewhere along the oregon or northern california coast. If this
occurs to our south, it could limit the wind potential for our
forecast area.

The frontal system will be in the process of occluding while moving
onshore Sunday morning. This should keep our cascades from really
getting into this system's warm sector, and precip should fall mainly
as snow for the passes and above. Whether or not an advisory will be
needed for the cascades largely depends on whether or not the system
splits while moving onshore Sunday. The fast progression of this
front will probably limit snow accumulations, with about 3 to 7
inches expected for most of our cascades. Valley rain and mountain
snow showers will persist behind the front, with snow levels
generally around 3000 feet. Weagle

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... By the time the showers
taper off behind Sunday's frontal system, the next large upper low
will be taking shape in the gulf of alaska. This will serve as the
parent low pressure system next week, guiding several waves of low
pressure toward the pac nw. Post-frontal showers on Monday will
likely decrease as weak ridging aloft slides across the pac nw. The
forecast becomes more complicated Tuesday, as an increasing number of
models are involving some southern stream energy with the gulf of
alaska upper trough. There are several possible outcomes depending on
how much phasing occurs between the two systems. The models which
show more phasing (such as the 00z ecmwf) develop a stronger surface
low offshore which then curls north into british columbia. This would
bring a rather typical front through the forecast area, with snow
levels remaining well up into the foothills. Some models and
ensembles show weaker or later phasing, thus a weaker surface low and
a more southern track. If that occurs, snow levels could be
considerably lower as precip moves through on Tuesday. For now, we
favor the 00z ECMWF solution, considering the strong pacific jet
stream and baroclinicity available for rapid cyclogenesis. Just about
all models eventually usher in a much cooler air mass by Thursday as
showers continue. The 00z ECMWF suggestion of -5 to -6 deg c 850 mb
temps would likely result in snow levels dropping down into the lower
foothills, but not quite the lower valley floors. Either way, temps
appear likely to swing to below normal by the middle to latter
portion of next week, with continued unsettled weather across the
pacific northwest. Weagle

Aviation Showers will persist today and tonight for a mix of
vfr and MVFR flight conditions. Gusty southwest winds can be
expected along the coast late this morning through the early
evening. The willamette valley will likely have 20 kt gusts
this afternoon.

Pdx and approaches... Showers will persist today and tonight. Mostly
MVFR conditions this morning. There is a better chance forVFR
conditions this afternoon as a trough moves across the willamette
valley. Could see some 20 kt gusts with the trough passage this
afternoon. ~tj

Marine A low pressure system north of the waters will continue
hazardous seas and gusty winds through Saturday. The seas will
likely remain between 17 and 20 feet through Saturday morning.

The seas will briefly drop to below 15 feet Saturday afternoon
and evening before rebuilding with the next approaching low
Saturday night.

Models have been consistent on forecasting storm force gusts
with the next weather system Saturday night through Sunday
morning, and have issued a storm force watch. There is good model
agreement that the seas will build to above 20 feet late Saturday
night. Models show a dynamic fetch is likely, and have forecasted
the seas slightly higher than the current model forecast. Expect
the seas to peak around 24 feet Sunday morning. The seas will be
choppier this round with dominant wave periods expected to be
around 12 seconds. Seas will subside to below 20 feet Sunday
afternoon, and gradually subside to around 12 feet Monday night
gales are possible with the next frontal system on Tuesday, but
forecast confidence of this system is low due to model
variability on the timing and track of the low. ~tj

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory until 3 pm pst this afternoon for central
oregon coast-north oregon coast.

High wind watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
for central oregon coast-north oregon coast.

Wa... High surf advisory until 3 pm pst this afternoon for south
washington coast.

High wind watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
for south washington coast.

Pz... Storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm pst Saturday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 pm
pst Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 8 mi57 min S 15 G 18 44°F 48°F1010.4 hPa (+1.0)
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi81 min SSE 9.9 G 14 42°F 49°F1009.5 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 25 mi27 min 50°F17 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi57 min SSE 7 G 9.9 42°F 43°F1011.1 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA22 mi64 minESE 117.00 miLight Rain42°F41°F96%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE11E11NE12NE14E9
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2 days agoS12S9S11S14
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S16S14S12S7E6E6NE8E8NE7E7NE7NE7NE9E12NE11E10NE8NE10E15NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Mailboat Slough
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:05 AM PST     8.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM PST     3.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:21 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:19 PM PST     9.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:59 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:00 PM PST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.178.38.98.57.45.94.53.73.74.66.27.99.29.99.88.66.64.32.20.5-0.10.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:59 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:55 AM PST     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:22 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:09 AM PST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:14 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:00 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:48 PM PST     -3.44 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:52 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:12 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.321.3-0-1.3-2-2.2-1.8-0.80.51.41.71.610.2-1-2.4-3.3-3.4-3-1.9-0.31.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.