Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 4:01 AM   Moonset 6:14 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 208 Pm Pdt Mon May 6 2024
combined seas 7 or 8 ft increasing to 10 to 11 ft overnight into Tuesday. Bar conditions moderate becoming rough on Tuesday. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 4 pm today, and 430 am and 5 pm Tuesday. The ebb Tuesday morning will be very strong.

PZZ100 208 Pm Pdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - Onshore flow will continue throughout the day as a surface cold front continues to slide inland. High pressure will build over the coastal waters and inland through the remainder of the week.

FXUS66 KPQR 062220 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 320 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Active weather Monday and Tuesday will give way to high pressure through the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms are the threat this afternoon, then skies will partially clear and temperatures will drop. Cannot rule out frost development in the valleys tonight and again early Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will rise considerably.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday Night...It's an active afternoon with widespread showers popping up throughout the area. Radar is showing areas of small hail (around 50+ dBz) in some showers, especially east of I-5. Rain accumulations with these showers is around 0.1 inch in 10-15 minutes which is quite heavy. However, they are fairly fast moving so the length of time for the downpours are not necessarily long enough for urban flooding to be an issue. However, if we continue to get heavier downpours in cities or areas with poor drainage, cannot rule out localized ponding of water. Thus far there have only been a few strikes detected in eastern Clark County (Washington), though with there being moisture in the charge separation zone of the atmosphere (around -15 deg Celsius), there remains around a 20% chance for thunderstorms to develop.

Showers will continue to push into the Cascades through Tuesday morning, then they should become less numerous throughout the day Tuesday. Snow levels remain unseasonably low, but marginal temperatures and strong May solar heating (even behind the clouds) will likely lead to just wet roads for the midday and afternoon hours. As has been the case the last few nights, conditions deteriorate for the Cascade passes during the cooler night and morning hours, when the lack of solar energy makes it easier for snow to accumulate on paved surfaces. With this in mind, will extend the Winter Weather Advisory through 8 AM Tuesday morning, after which conditions should improve considerably with solar heating and decreasing showers. By the end of Tuesday, another 3-10 inches of snow are expected for the Cascade passes and above. Will note though that the presence of gusty winds may impact the ability for snow to properly accumulate. Have decreased the snow rations to reflect this possibility.

Front continues to be a challenge Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The National Blended Models suggests around a 20% chance for at or below freezing overnight temperatures from McMinnville south with higher probabilities along the Coast Range and far southern Willamette Valley. The challenge will be how dry conditions will be, if skies will clear, and whether the east winds will be at the "right speed" for that frost to form. Agricultural communities within the Willamette Valley, Hood River Valley and valleys through the Coast Range.

Wednesday will be transition day as strong high pressure asserts its dominance over the Pac NW weather pattern. Any morning clouds should clear quickly for plenty of afternoon sunshine. With the chilly start and flow still not totally offshore, Wednesday's high temperatures will probably remain in 60s for the lowlands despite the rapidly warming air mass aloft. It is not out of the question the inland valleys reach the lower 70s as early as Wednesday.
-Muessle/Weagle

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...If you're ready for a break in the rain, the long term forecast is for you. If you're looking for temperatures in the 70s, and 80s, then mid and late this week are definitely for you! A large area of high pressure builds over the Pacific starting on Wednesday. Clusters are in very good agreement of this ridging, and how amplified it is stretching from off the coast of California up through southern Canada. The extent of this high will increase easterly flow as thermal troughs form along the coast. There will be a slight gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge and downsloping off of the Coast Range. There is still a lot of room for conditions to change, but there are very high probabilities (90% or higher) of temperatures rising into the 80s on Friday for all lowlands that are more than a couple miles from the coast, with similar high probabilities continuing into Saturday for lowlands east of the Coast Range. NBM chances of reaching 90 degrees have now increased to 40-60% for the PDX metro Friday and 30-50% for Saturday. Elsewhere in the interior valleys, the chance of reaching 90 deg F each day is generally less than 20% but not zero. Regardless of whether or not anyone actually reaches 90 degrees Friday or Saturday, confidence is high that these will be the warmest two days so far this year for much of the forecast area. Onshore flow likely returns for some cooling and coastal low clouds Sunday.

The main concern later this week is not so much the rising temperatures themselves, but the combination of the warm weather with rivers that are still very cold. Most rivers draining the Cascades will be loaded with fresh snowmelt, running fast and cold. With river temperatures in the 40s for many drainages, cold water shock is a very real possibility. So - while it may be tempting to jump into a refreshingly cool river or lake as temperatures warm up - doing so would be quite dangerous without proper equipment. Same goes for the ocean - sea surface temperatures are mostly in the lower 50s along the coast. -Weagle/Muessle


LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...Fairly quiet long term forecast as high pressure develops over the region. This pattern is lovingly referred to as "big bubble no trouble" as skies will be clear, conditions will be dry, and winds will be easterly.
Guidance ensemble model guidance is in good agreement that this ridge will develop, it's just the intensity and where the axis peaks. Based on the surface level pressure gradient, expecting that ridge to be vertically aligned with the west coast on Wednesday afternoon which will develop a thermal trough. This thermal trough (low pressure induced by increasing temperatures). This thermal trough will cause easterly winds to increase ushering in dry and warmer air from east of the Cascades. Relative humidity will tank, and conditions will continue to warm. Models are suggesting that Saturday will be the warmest of the weekend, but, with the ridge beginning to weaken that day, we will see a transition to onshore flow, temperature rises may be stifled. Either way, looking at some of the warmest temperatures thus far this year. With it being a celebratory weekend AND having warm weather, remember the hazards that are present. The water is very cold (around 40-45 degrees) and thus cold water drownings are possible. Heat related illnesses are also possible to be sure to keep yourself cool if you're susceptible to heat. -Muessle



AVIATION
Northwesterly flow aloft and moist onshore lower level flow will maintain post-frontal showers across the area today.
Predominately VFR expected (80-90% chance) as cigs continue to lift. But, any stronger shower through this evening may briefly reduce visibility or cigs at times. There is also a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. Chances for MVFR along the coast increases to around 30-50% overnight as high pressure begins to build.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR expected with rain showers through tonight. Heavier showers may bring brief reductions to MVFR at times. Instability increases this afternoon bringing a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms through early evening. Westerly winds with gusts to around 20 kt expected through 04Z Tuesday.
-DH

MARINE
Breezy west to northwest winds and postfrontal showers continue through Tuesday morning. Generally expect winds around 10 to 20 kt across the waters, with stronger convective showers producing gusts to 25 kt. Then high pressure begins to build across the waters on Tuesday, bringing more tranquil weather. A increasing northwesterly swell will cause seas around 7 to 8 ft to build to around 9 to 10 ft through Tuesday. Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory in place through Tuesday evening.

Then, winds turn northerly as high pressure persists offshore and the thermal trough strengthens along the CA/OR coast. This summer like pattern will bring breezy north winds with gusts to 30 kt on Wednesday. -DH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ126>128.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251-252- 271-272.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:44 AM PDT     -3.98 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:02 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:20 AM PDT     2.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:04 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:06 PM PDT     -2.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:53 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:15 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:34 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:02 PM PDT     2.61 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Portland, OR,