Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Bend, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday March 23, 2017 11:06 PM PDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:52AMMoonset 1:47PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 846 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory for rough bar in effect through Friday evening... Combined seas 10 to 12 ft. Bar conditions rough. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 245 am and 3 pm Friday.
PZZ100 846 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A vigorous front over the coastal waters this evening will move across western washington tonight. A trough will follow the front on Friday. Weak high pres will move over the region Saturday. The next frontal system will move through the area Sunday night...with another front approaching on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA
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location: 46.69, -123.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 240337
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
837 pm pdt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis An occluding pacific frontal system will bring
continued rain into southwest washington and northwest oregon
tonight, with showers and a few thunderstorms lingering into Friday.

High pressure will cause showers to taper off late Saturday, but the
next frontal system will likely bring more rain Sunday followed by
showers Monday. Occasionally wet weather is expected to linger
through the middle of next week.

Short term Tonight through Sunday... Stratiform rain across the
area has dropped around 0.05" per hour for lower elevations and close
to 0.10" per hour in higher elevations in the coast range. This does
not warrant any adjustment to ongoing QPF forecast which looks pretty
good based on those rates. Latest satellite representation supports
hrrr which shows renewed development continuing overnight and into
tomorrow morning. The back edge of the precip will slowly slide east
of the area sometime tomorrow morning.

This is when conditions will need to be closely monitored for thunder
potential. Some dry air will come in behind this precip and may be
sufficient enough to scatter out clouds and get some sun. If this
does occur, at least some surface based instability will develop. Any
instability will be sufficient for thunder given the falling heights
and colder air aloft. In fact, given freezing levels are expected to
be around 4000 feet, it won't take much of an updraft to form small
hail. If surface instability strengthens enough for updrafts to
extend beyond 10 kft (would guess around 400 to 500 j/kg), would
expect a few hail showers which may even lead to minor accumulation.

This all depends on the amount of clearing we get tomorrow
morning/afternoon, but the likelihood of clearing is high enough to
warrant a mention of the hail potential. As a result, expanded the
area of thunder slightly eastward and added a slight chance of small
hail for all areas north of salem. These storms will be pretty
shallow. The effective shear will be significant enough, (25-30 kts)
to organize any stronger updrafts for hail formation, but these
shallow storms will lack the depth for any significant wind creation
either from evaporative cooling or water loading in the updraft. In
addition, extended thunder mention through 06z as latest 3km NAM does
not bring the trough/cold front through the area until that time and
still has some convective elements along it as it moves through.

/bentley

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... 12z global models are
in general agreement with evolution of the long wave pattern,
however, details are far too sketchy to pin down specific dry
periods. This is somewhat of a shift from earlier runs where the
early part of next week showed signs of a brief dry period. Cold
front Sunday night will push east through early Monday. Plenty of
orographic showers will follow through Monday evening. There, the
gfs and ECMWF start to show differences among the operational runs.

Have thereafter decided to stick fairly close to a blend of the
ensemble means as the ECMWF is slightly more progressive with the
westerly flow while the GFS is continuing more of the amplified
pattern it's shown the last few days. The 12z runs do come back
together on Wednesday/Wednesday night with a trough sweeping east
across the region. For now, that looks like the wettest day although
given the run to run inconsistency, have kept lower end likely pops
for now. Regardless of the details, overall conditions will close to
seasonal temperature norms which keeps snow levels bouncing between
4000 and 6000 feet. /jbonk

Aviation Conditions have remainedVFR so far this evening both
at the coast and inland as rain has spread over the area with the
incoming front. Still think MVFR is possible before the front
moves onshore along the coast 08z-10z and through the inland by
10z-12z. Conditions will then try to lift back toVFR behind the
front though showers in the onshore flow behind the front may
drop conditions at times to MVFR. In addition, there is a chance
of thunderstorms at the inland TAF sites Friday afternoon as
cooler air aloft spreads in behind tonight's front.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions with rain through much of
tonight, with a chance of MVFR conditions.VFR conditions will
then tend to prevail on Friday with a chance of MVFR in any
heavier showers, and with a chance of thunder in the afternoon.

Pt

Marine A strong cold front is over the coastal waters this
evening, with a peak gust at buoy 50 to 43 kt so far. The models
continue to say the front will move onshore a little after
midnight. The south winds will drop off to small craft advisory
values late tonight and Friday morning, then turn more
southwesterly Friday afternoon, then turning even more westerly
and finally dropping below 20 kt overnight Friday night. The
next significant winds are expected with another rather strong
front Sunday. Look for high end small craft advisory winds or low
end gales with the Sunday front.

Seas continue to be forecast to peak around 16 ft tonight, and
with the way our wave models perform it could be a couple of feet
higher. Seas are then forecast to drop to around 10 or 11 ft
during the day Friday and continue near those values through much
of Saturday, dropping below 10 ft late Saturday and Saturday
night. Seas will likely exceed 10 ft Sunday with the next front.

Pt

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale warning until 1 am pdt Friday for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning until 3 am pdt Friday for coastal waters from cape
shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pdt Friday.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 pm to
6 pm pdt Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 8 mi49 min SE 11 G 14 48°F 49°F1009.5 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi91 min ESE 12 G 15 44°F 49°F1009.5 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 25 mi45 min 49°F12 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi49 min SSE 2.9 G 6 46°F 46°F1009.9 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi37 min 51°F12 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA22 mi14 minENE 116.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F45°F100%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8E9E7E7E6E7NE7NE9E9E8E9NE10E11E15E13E10E12E12E6NE11E11E10NE11E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Mailboat Slough
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Fri -- 05:19 AM PDT     3.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:29 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:20 AM PDT     8.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:56 PM PDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.87.36.35.24.13.43.54.45.678.18.88.67.76.14.22.41.10.61.22.54.267.5

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM PDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:31 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:32 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM PDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:17 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:58 PM PDT     -2.91 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:52 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:10 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:43 PM PDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.4-0.50.411.31.31.10.3-0.9-2-2.7-2.9-2.5-1.4-0.20.81.51.91.91.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.