Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Bend, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:56PM Saturday February 24, 2018 12:11 AM PST (08:11 UTC) Moonrise 12:12PMMoonset 2:40AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 826 Pm Pst Fri Feb 23 2018
.small craft advisory for rough bar in effect through late Saturday night... Combined seas 8 to 9 ft building to 12 to 14 ft Saturday. Bar conditions moderate becoming rough Saturday. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 1030 pm tonight and 1115 am Saturday.
PZZ100 826 Pm Pst Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Strong onshore flow will follow behind a front tonight. A stronger system will move through the area Saturday night and Sunday with gales possible for the coastal waters and strait of juan de fuca. Weak high pres over the area Monday will be followed by another front on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bend, WA
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location: 46.69, -123.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 240546
afdpqr
area forecast discussion...

national weather service portland or
946 pm pst Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis Chilly air mass will remain entrenched over the region
today into early next week. Another disturbance over the gulf of
alaska will spread precipitation across the region tonight, with snow
levels still rather low. But, much stronger system arrives on Sunday,
with rain for the lowlands, and very heavy snow and winds in the
cascades. This cool and active weather continues next week with more
chances for low elevation snow.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... Snow levels have stayed low
enough through the evening to support snow in most locations even in
the lowlands despite gusty south winds keeping temperatures in the
upper 30s. However, rain shadowing has proven to be an even more
significant issue than previously thought as 30 to 40 knot 850 flow
has lead to orographically driven precipitation. Given this lack of
precipitation and the warm surface temperatures, impacts will be
limited for any locations below 1000 feet and precipitation will be
light enough to prevent any significant accumulations in the valley.

Cancelled the winter weather advisory for the central valley and
portland metro area for the aforementioned reasons. Kept the advisory
for the lower columbia i-5 corridor given the rain shadowing is less
pronounced there and accumulations of 1 to 3 inches still seem
feasible for the higher hills above kelso longview. All other
advisories seem to be working out fine with snow accumulation on most
roads above 600 feet in the coast range and increasing orographic
precipitation in the cascades tonight. In fact, increased snowfall
amounts a bit more for tonight and tomorrow morning for the cascades
and foothills above 1500 feet given the impressive orographic flow
and increased QPF from the 00z nam. Only other change to the forecast
was increasing low temperatures a few degrees tonight in the valley
considering the gusty southerly flow. Bentley
previous discussion follows... Mid and high level clouds
have been thickening up today in advance of the next weather
disturbance headed our way from the northwest. The very chilly start
to the day, combined with the increasing cloud cover has kept high
temps today in the mid to upper 30s through most of the interior
lowlands, with low 40s at the coast.

A surface low along the british columbia coast this afternoon is
bringing a warm front toward the pac NW coast. Isentropic lift
associated with this front has been spreading increasing light
precipitation into the region from the NW over the past several
hours. Even though surface temps are generally well above freezing,
the airmass over the region is still quite cold, in the -7 to -9 c
range. This should ensure that precipitation will start out as snow
or a rain snow mix down to the lowest elevations. We expect some
light accumulations, maybe an inch or two, for portions of the
lowlands through this evening as precipitation intensity increases
and evaporational cooling brings surface temps down closer to
freezing. Accumulations should be mainly confined to grassy surfaces
and at elevations above 500 feet. For elevations below 500 feet,
accumulations look unlikely at this time. Southerly winds of 10 to 15
kt are expected to continue through the willamette valley tonight,
which will prevent much in the way of diurnal cooling. Evaporational
cooling may cool things enough for a dusting at the lowest
elevations, but not much more. Snow levels are expected to rise up
closer to 1500 feet after midnight as the warm front aloft moves
through and moderates the air mass somewhat. This will end the
threat for snow for the lowlands for the weekend. Expect significant
mountain snowfall overnight into Sat morning as a sharp upper level
shortwave moves through the region. Winter weather advisories are in
effect for the cascades, cascade foothills, and coastal mountains for
this time period.

Precipitation will taper off Sat afternoon and evening as the upper
level trough moves out of the cwa. However, orographic snow will
continue in the cascades during this time. Another cold trough will
dive south into the pac NW Sat night and sun. This will bring another
round of significant mountain snowfall, with snow levels generally
hovering around 1500 to 2500 ft during this time. We have issued
winter storm watches for the cascades and cascade foothills. The
coastal mountains may also eventually require a warning depending on
what snow levels turn out to be. Snow totals of
1 to 2 feet are expected for the cascades and higher elevations of
the foothills during the 24-hr period from Sat night through sun
night. Strong westerly winds will bring gusts 40 to 50 kt or higher
above the treeline, leading to very poor visibilities traveling over
some of the mountain passes.

Precipitation begins to taper off Sun night into Mon morning. Colder
air arriving with the trough may again bring snow down into the
lowlands going for Mon morning. At this time, precipitation amounts
during this time look to be quite light. Significant impacts are not
currently expected, but some light accumulations may be possible
into the some of the hills around the lowlands by Mon morning.

Showers will continue to decrease through the day mon, and clouds may
try to clear from north to south in the afternoon. But it will be
another chilly day. Pyle

Long term Monday night through Friday... Fairly active pattern
will continue through the long range. Operational 12z GFS and ecmwf,
when compared to the ensembles, are in fairly good agreement
regarding the overall large-scale details. Another short-wave drops
into the area from the northwest Mon night and tue. This system will
have a more maritime influence. Snow levels Mon night will generally
be 1000 to 1500 feet, although down to 500 feet in the gorge and
east skamania county. Model 1000-500 mb forecast thickness values
will be in the 525-530 dm range with 850 mb temps around -5c. This
system slides through the forecast area tue. QPF amounts do not look
all that impressive, but could be enough for snow advisory amounts
in the S washington and N oregon cascades.

Gfs 500 mb spaghetti plots start to show more variation beginning
wed. A deepening upper level trough along the british columbia coast
will allow a more moderate west to northwest 500 mb flow to impact
the area. A leading short-wave is expected to reach the area wed
night. The ECMWF indicates a complex surface low pressure off
vancouver island 12z Thu with an 8-10 mb kast-koth south gradient.

The operational 12z GFS is much different, with a closed low off the
central oregon coast and offshore low-level flow through the gorge.

The ncep GFS ensembles valid 00z Thu are all over the place,
suggesting low confidence in the general forecast. Would tend to
favor the ECMWF at this time and have trended the forecast in that
direction. Eventually, the large upper level trough takes up
residence over the NE pac 00z fri. This would maintain an
unseasonably cool air mass over the region, with snow levels
generally 1000-1500 ft. There is better agreement between the gfs
and ECMWF Thu night and fri, leading to better forecast confidence.

All in all, the extended period will continue the cascade snowpack
improvement, but not expecting any additional valley floor snowfall
during the period. Weishaar

Aviation Mostly MVFR cig overnight with -sn or -ra. Do not
expect snow accumulation on paved surfaces at TAF sites. All
precipitation will turn to rain overnight. Gusty southerly winds
continue overnight with a lull and then winds pick back up out of
the west to northwest late tonight or Saturday morning. Expect
conditions improving toVFR by late Saturday morning or early
Saturday afternoon.

Pdx and approaches... -sn for the next few hours, but no
accumulation expected on paved surfaces. Temperatures remain
above freezing tonight. MVFR cig through the night, rising toVFR
around 18z Saturday. Current southerly winds will switch to out
of the west to northwest and become gusty after 15z Saturday with
gusts up to 25 kt. Bowen

Marine The next system will continue to drop southward across
the waters tonight. The main low pressure area stays north of
the waters near vancouver island through Saturday with small
craft advisory threshold winds over our waters, except gales in
the northern waters late tonight and Saturday morning, especially
over the outer waters. There is a bit of a lull in the winds
later Saturday and Saturday evening before another system drops
south and brings more small craft advisory threshold winds Sunday
except gales are again pretty likely over the northern waters
later Saturday night and Sunday morning.

This series of systems from today through the weekend produces a
nice northwesterly fetch off the b.C. Coast that will likely lead
to seas in our coastal waters being well up in the teens through
the weekend. Pt

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Sunday for cascades in
lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Winter storm watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
evening for cascade foothills in lane county-cascades in
lane county-northern oregon cascade foothills-northern
oregon cascades.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pst Saturday for cascade
foothills in lane county-northern oregon cascade foothills.

Winter weather advisory until noon pst Saturday for coast range
of northwest oregon.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Saturday for lower
columbia.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Sunday for south
washington cascades.

Winter storm watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
evening for south washington cascade foothills-south
washington cascades.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pst Saturday for south
washington cascade foothills.

Winter weather advisory until noon pst Saturday for willapa
hills.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Saturday for i-5
corridor in cowlitz county.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 1 am pst Saturday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 1 am to 10 am pst Saturday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 3 pm pst Saturday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head or to florence
or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 1 am to 3 pm pst
Saturday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head
or to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 pm
pst Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 8 mi42 min W 12 G 20 42°F 43°F1019.7 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 21 mi42 min W 20 G 26 43°F 45°F1018.9 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 25 mi42 min 46°F8 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 33 mi42 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 36°F 40°F1020 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi42 min 44°F8 ft

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA22 mi19 minWSW 18 G 239.00 miLight Rain and Breezy42°F37°F85%1018.5 hPa

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Last 24hrNE3CalmNE4CalmNE3NE4NE5NE5NE7E6E7SE8SE12SE12SE15
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1 day agoNE8NE11NE8NE9NE4NE5NE4NE4NE6E6E5E5N5SE6SE4SE4SE4E12E9NE4CalmNE4NE3Calm
2 days agoN5E4NE4E7N5NE6NE4NE7NE6NE7CalmCalmCalmE5S64E5SE5CalmNE3E4NE4N6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Mailboat Slough, Willapa River, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Mailboat Slough
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Sat -- 12:56 AM PST     3.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:40 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM PST     9.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:12 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:32 PM PST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:53 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:08 PM PST     7.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.84.15.26.68.19.29.89.78.87.25.43.621.11.11.83.14.55.96.97.376.3

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
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Sat -- 01:17 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:42 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:59 AM PST     1.66 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:27 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:18 AM PST     -3.05 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:13 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:51 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:10 PM PST     1.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:59 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-0.30.71.41.71.510.4-0.6-1.9-2.7-3-2.9-2.2-10.211.41.51.41-0-1-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.