Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tokeland, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday March 26, 2017 2:10 AM PDT (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 901 pm pdt Sat mar 25 2017 combined seas 6 to 8 ft. Bar conditions moderate. The maximum ebb currents will occur around 415 am and 430 pm Sunday. PZZ100 901 Pm Pdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Falling pres over the offshore waters with higher pres inland will result in easterly flow overnight. A frontal system will move onto the washington coast late Sunday for onshore flow. The next frontal system is anticipated on Tue...followed by another one Wed night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tokeland, WA
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location: 46.71, -123.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 260416
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
914 pm pdt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis Showers will continue to decrease overnight tonight as
onshore flow decreases. The next rather strong frontal system will
spread rain into southwest washington and northwest oregon fairly
early on Sunday that will continue through the day. Look for breezy
conditions as well with snow in the cascades. The associated cold
front will move onshore and through southwest washington and
northwest oregon late on Sunday. Onshore flow behind the front will
keep showers spreading onshore across the area through Sunday night
and Monday, with snow levels below the passes in the cascades. A
system will brush the northern parts of the forecast area with
precipitation Tuesday, followed by another Wednesday and Thursday
that will affect all of the area. We may see some drying towards the
end of next week.

Short term (tonight through Tuesday)... Onshore flow was turning
more southerly and weakening tonight with just a few showers
remaining over the forecast area. These will continue to decrease
overnight before the approach of the next system.

The models show the next rather strong system approaching late
tonight, spreading rain and cascade snow across southwest washington
and northwest oregon fairly early on Sunday and continuing through
most of the day Sunday. The associated cold front comes onshore and
moves through the forecast area late Sunday. It will be windy along
the coast ahead of the front, and breezy inland. Snow levels in the
cascades will start out below the passes Sunday morning, may rise up
to near or just above the passes in oregon in the afternoon, then
fall back below the pass elevations Sunday night and Monday as
onshore flow behind the front spreads plenty of showers across the
area. Have issued a snow advisory for the cascades for Sunday through
Monday for all of this. From 6 to 14 inches are possible through
Monday, with the higher amounts at elevations above the cascade
passes.

Showers decrease Monday night as the onshore flow decreases. The
models are coming in better agreement that the next system will
mainly go into western washington on Tuesday, brushing the northern
half of our forecast area. Tolleson

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

(Tuesday night through Saturday) upper-level pattern becomes more
amplified later next week, behind a trough that will bring more rain
Tuesday night into Wednesday, transitioning to showers on Thursday.

This means a ridge builds up over the pacific northwest Friday for a
dry and mild day. Models are in remarkably good agreement with this
ridge for how far out it is in the forecast period, increasing
confidence. Models however have the ridge flattening with an
approaching broad trough, with significant differences in timing
between the ECMWF (Saturday) and the GFS (Monday). Either scenario
will bring rain back to the area with the flattening of this ridge.

Snow levels generally hover around 4000 to 5000 feet, except for
Wednesday and Friday when they go up to 6-8000 feet. Temperatures
generally remain a little cooler than normal. -mccoy

Aviation Vfr conditions should generally hold at most taf
sites until rain spreads eastward across the area between 12-18z
Sunday. Coastal locations will likely drop into MVFR conditions
for an extended period. Meanwhile, conditions should remain
predominantlyVFR inland, but CIGS may lower enough around 21z
Sunday that a few hours of MVFR conditions appears possible.

Kpdx and approaches... Rain associated with an incoming front will
produce lowering CIGS after 12z Sunday. East winds should keep
conditions predominantlyVFR, but as the winds turn southerly around
~21z Sunday, there may be a short period of MVFR cigs. /neuman

Marine An incoming front will bring strengthening south to
southeasterly winds to the waters tonight. Winds should rise
into gale force criteria of 35 to 40 kt across the outer waters
Sunday morning. The stronger winds will take a while to develop
across the inner waters. Given gale force winds struggled to
develop near the coast in the last similar frontal storm system,
confidence is a bit lower on whether or not they'll actually
develop this time around, but will nonetheless, keep the gale
warning intact. Either way, seas should rise into the low to mid
teens midday Sunday and Sunday afternoon before falling back
below 10 ft Sunday night.

Weak high pressure will slowly build across the waters Sunday
night and Monday, which should result in less wind across the
waters. However, an incoming westerly swell will likely push seas
above 10 ft late Monday and/or Tuesday. In addition, another
frontal storm system, albeit weaker than Sundays, will move into
the waters Tuesday and/or Wednesday and bring gusty small craft
advisory level wind gusts of 25-30 kt. High pressure looks to
then shift over the northeast pacific and possibly bring us a
brief period of summer-like northerly winds late next week./neuman

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 9 am Sunday to 4 pm pdt Monday for
cascades in lane county-northern oregon cascades.

Wa... Winter weather advisory from 9 am Sunday to 4 pm pdt Monday for
south washington cascades.

Pz... Gale warning from 11 am to 4 pm pdt Sunday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Gale warning from 6 am to 3 pm pdt Sunday for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 1 pm to
7 pm pdt Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 0 mi41 min SE 8 G 9.9 45°F 50°F1014.5 hPa
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 15 mi41 min SE 6 G 7 42°F 49°F1014.3 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 18 mi49 min 49°F9 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 35 mi41 min 51°F9 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 36 mi41 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 47°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Toke Point, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA19 mi18 minENE 79.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from HQM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6CalmCalmSW4CalmE6NE3E5S5SW6SW9SW11SW9SW10SW9SW6SW3S3NE4E5E8E8E8NE7
1 day agoNE8NE6E5SE9E5E8E7SE9S13S14S13S15
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2 days agoE7E6E7NE7NE9E9E8E9NE10E11E15E13E10E12E12E6NE11E11E10NE11E11E12E11E8

Tide / Current Tables for Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington
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Toke Point
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Sun -- 12:47 AM PDT     8.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM PDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:43 PM PDT     9.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:08 PM PDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.18.47.76.44.83.221.72.54.15.97.68.898.26.64.62.50.800.524.16.2

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:13 AM PDT     -2.87 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:38 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:07 AM PDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:01 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:27 PM PDT     -3.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:11 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:29 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:35 PM PDT     2.52 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.4-0-1.5-2.4-2.9-2.6-1.6-0.211.82.121.30-1.6-2.8-3.3-3.3-2.3-0.80.71.92.42.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.