Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:31PM Sunday November 19, 2017 11:53 PM CST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 5:44PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 200526
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1126 pm cst Sun nov 19 2017

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 231 pm cst Sun nov 19 2017
this afternoon, very light snow continues to progress eastward along
an axis of low-level warm air and moisture advection. Impacts with
this snow should remain minimal as only light accumulations have
been observed on area webcams. This band of snow should exit the
northland later this afternoon as skies continue to clear over our
southwestern counties and drier air moves in. Clearing skies will be
the trend this evening before increasing from the north Monday
morning as a mid-level shortwave trough moves into the region.

Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures look to warm up Monday
as winds remain southerly, bringing warmer air into the region.

Highs Monday are forecast to reach into the middle to upper 30s over
the minnesota arrowhead, to the lower to middle 40s over our
southern counties. There is some uncertainty regarding the high
temperatures Monday as some of the guidance differs quite a bit.

Some of the high-res, short-range guidance is going a bit cooler
compared to some of the synoptic guidance. Either way, temperatures
should be above freezing, so there should be some melting of the
snow pack tomorrow.

The next chances of precipitation, mainly in the form of a rain snow
mix, will be along the international border when a mid-level
shortwave trough dives southeastward from the pacific northwest.

Thaler QG omega progs indicate the best lift over manitoba and
western ontario canada, ahead of the wave. Also, there is a corridor
of stronger 850-700 mb q-vector convergence along the international
border region. The best chances of precipitation over the north
appears to hold off until early Tuesday morning.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 231 pm cst Sun nov 19 2017
a cold snap will come early in the period, but more seasonal weather
is expected around thanksgiving. A late week system could bring a
sloppy mix of rain and snow, sometime Friday into Friday night.

Another cold snap will hit the northland with that passing system
going into the weekend.

A canadian clipper will pass just to the north in canada Monday
night and Tuesday. This low's arctic cold front will blow through
the northland late Monday evening through the early morning of
Tuesday. Brace yourselves! This front will not only bring relatively
strong and deep mixing, with 30 to 40 knots wind speeds within the
mixing layer. There will also be strong pressure rises. Cloud cover
will minimize radiational cooling (and the resulting boundary layer
decoupling) overnight and help maintain strong mixing. The cold air
will continue to pour into the northland Tuesday, so the mixing will
continue through the day. We increased the wind forecast for Monday
night and Tuesday over the previous forecast. Expect widespread wind
gusts of 25 to 40 mph Monday night and early Tuesday, with stray
gusts to 45 mph. The strongest winds will be across central into
northeast minnesota, and on the weaker range of those winds in
northwest wisconsin. Expect little if any temperature recovery
Tuesday. Highs will be about 15 to 20 degrees colder than the day
before, but that's not the bigger story. Wind chills will be in the
single digits to lower teens.

The passing clipper and front will also bring light snow to far
northern minnesota Monday night and Tuesday morning, and light lake
effect snow downwind of lake superior in northern wisconsin. The
snowfall forecast is pretty light, about less than an inch.

High pressure will move into the northland Tuesday night and
Wednesday, which will ease off the cold northwest flow. Wednesday
will be warmer, especially considering much lighter wind flow. A
weak area of low pressure will pass through the dakotas into the
upper midwest or central plains Wednesday into Wednesday night. It
might bring very light precipitation into the northland. The latest
gfs and european suggest this precipitation would fall over the
areas of central into east central minnesota. It would most likely
be very light snow.

Another area of high pressure will move into the northland Thursday.

This will provide a somewhat sunny day. Colder air will be over
northern minnesota compared to areas farther south. Highs should
range from the lower 20s near the canadian border to the low 30s from
central minnesota into northwest wisconsin.

The models continue to indicate another canadian clipper could
affect the northland late this week. The latest gfs, european, and
canadian are in better agreement compared to previous model runs.

There is increasing confidence the low will track across southern
canada, when earlier model runs (like the european) were taking the
low through the northland. This more northern track means warmer air
for the northland, and keeping the heavier precipitation in canada.

However, the northland could still get a sloppy mix of rain and
snow. The clipper's arctic cold front will bring another cold snap
going into the weekend. More light lake effect snow is possible
downwind of lake superior in northern wisconsin over the weekend.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1126 pm cst Sun nov 19 2017
vfr conditions will continue tonight for most areas, although
there could be some patchy fog dropping conditions to ifr MVFR. We
only mention 6sm in fog at khyr khib as low vsbys look unlikely.

Continued warm air advection tonight will transition to cold air
advection from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon into Monday
night.VFR ceilings will develop late tonight into Monday. An
area of low pressure and cold front will pass through the
northland late Monday afternoon into overnight switching winds to
west to northwest and increasing in strength through the
evening overnight. There may be light rain snow over far northern
minnesota with a better chance for MVFR ceilings late in the
period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 16 40 19 22 0 10 10 10
inl 9 38 16 19 0 30 50 30
brd 22 44 20 24 0 0 10 10
hyr 14 44 22 25 0 0 10 10
asx 17 45 25 26 0 0 10 30

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Gale watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
lsz121-140>148.

Short term... Jts
long term... Grochocinski
aviation... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi54 min N 1.9 G 4.1 27°F 1009 hPa (-1.2)20°F
PKBW3 7 mi54 min Calm 17°F 1010 hPa (-1.0)17°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 56 mi74 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 26°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair25°F19°F80%1009.1 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair16°F14°F94%1008.8 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi59 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy20°F17°F89%1010.2 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair19°F14°F79%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
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SW8SW7SW8SW6SW9SW10SW10SW11SW8SW8SW6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW6N10N11NW8N10NW9N12NW8NW9W3NW8NW6NW13W18
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2 days agoE8SE5SE7SE6SE7S6S5S7S5SW6CalmCalmCalmS4SW4W3CalmCalmSW4CalmN4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.