Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:13PM Friday August 18, 2017 10:43 PM CDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:33AMMoonset 5:03PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 732 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 8 2017
.a cluster of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 730 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located 10 nm southeast of french river...or 12 nm west of port wing safe harbor... Moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Larsmont...duluth lift bridge channel...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4707 9163 4685 9107 4682 9118 4683 9121 4673 9151 4668 9184 4678 9215
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201708090100;;088496 FZUS73 KDLH 090032 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 732 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017 LSZ143>146-162-090100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 182345
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
645 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017

Update
Issued at 639 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
updated aviation section below for 00z TAF taf issuance.

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 257 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
an upper level trough was over the region this afternoon with a
weak low level trough near or just west of our cwa. Isolated to
scattered showers storms have developed over near the walker pine
river brainerd lakes region with more just entering koochiching
county as of 1950z. MLCAPE values are between 500j kg and 1000j kg
over the western half of minnesota but deep layer shear is quite
limited. Some stronger storms have developed this afternoon but
they are short-lived due to lack of organization and stronger
forcing. The chance for showers storms will move east through the
evening continuing into the rest of northeast minnesota into parts
of far northern wisconsin. They should dissipate late evening or
shortly after midnight. Fog will then be possible later tonight as
skies clear and winds go light.

High pressure will move in later tonight along with an upper level
ridge. Saturday will be a dry day under partly to mostly sunny
skies. Winds will become west to southwest and highs will climb
into the upper seventies to lower eighties.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 257 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
the extended forecast is highlighted by above average temperatures
for Sunday, with a bit of a cool-down Monday through Thursday, as
well as a few shots at showers and storms, with possibly the return
of severe weather Sunday night.

Saturday night looks to be dry before a cool front boundary dives
southeastward, along with a mid-level shortwave. Some enhanced 850-
700 mb fgen and enhanced low-level convergence will provide the lift
along this boundary. The best chances of precipitation with this
cool front will be Sunday morning. Not really expecting much in the
way of precipitation due to the low-level atmospheric moisture
profiles being fairly dry per the 18.12z NAM soundings. Highs Sunday
will range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s over northwest
wisconsin.

The best chances for precipitation for the extended forecast period
look to be from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. The
aforementioned cool front boundary stalls along our southern
counties Sunday night, and ultimately lingers over this area. The
baroclinic zone along the boundary remains stationary through
Tuesday morning before finally exiting the region. Consensus blend
pops have low to some low-end moderate chances of precipitation.

With 925 mb temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20 degrees c
over the southern counties, along with a corridor of better
instability, these higher chances of precipitation appear
reasonable. There is a day 3 convective outlook, with a marginal
risk south of a poplar, mn to hayward, wi line. The bulk of the
convective activity will remain to our south and west as the
environment is progged to be more unstable compared to over the
northland. Some of the activity may creep northward into our far
southern counties, but there's still quite a bit of disagreement
between the synoptic models, so still much uncertainty exists.

Leaned towards the consensus blend pops for now. Temperatures will
gradually decrease Monday and Tuesday, with highs Monday in the mid
to upper 70s, and highs Tuesday in the lower 70s. Sky cover will be
the thickest over the southern areas due to this system, but other
portions of the northland may potentially have an opportunity to
view some of the eclipse during the early afternoon, if some brief
clearing develops.

There may be some lingering small chances of showers and storms
Tuesday afternoon, but the trend in precipitation chances should
generally be downward as high pressure makes its way into the
region, which should set up for a drier stretch of weather Wednesday
through Friday. Temperatures remain slightly below seasonal
averages, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. There could be some
pretty cool nights during this period, as lows may drop into the
lower to mid 40s in some spots across our north, especially Thursday
morning.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 645 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
evening showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a few of the
terminals this evening, and have even included a tempo group for
khib as a group of cells is heading towards the site. Expect this
convection to die off by approximately 02z, leavingVFR
conditions at the terminals. Fog is expected to develop at several
terminals after 06z tonight, with MVFR or even ifr visibilities
between 09z and 13z. All sites should return toVFR by 14z and
remain so through the rest of the TAF period with generally west
winds less than 10 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 55 80 60 80 40 0 20 20
inl 50 81 60 77 10 0 30 10
brd 54 81 60 80 30 0 30 20
hyr 53 80 58 82 20 0 10 30
asx 57 83 61 84 20 0 10 30

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Le
short term... Melde
long term... Jts
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi44 min WSW 8 G 11 67°F 60°F
PKBW3 7 mi104 min SE 2.9 64°F 1012 hPa62°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 14 mi34 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 65°F1 ft63°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 37 mi84 min S 4.1 G 9.9 67°F 1010.8 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 56 mi40 min WNW 6 G 9.9 67°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi51 minSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F60°F88%1011.2 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi49 minSW 610.00 mi62°F59°F92%1011.2 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi49 minW 410.00 miA Few Clouds60°F59°F96%1011.7 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi50 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F55°F83%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW7NW8NW4W8SW4W6SW6SW7W4SW5SW4S5CalmSW5SW7SW6S6SW6SW6S8SW7SW4SW11
1 day agoNE19NE20
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NE30NE20
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N5NW10NW10N13NW7NW14
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2 days agoNE11NE12NE13NE14NE14NE11NE13NE12NE16E19NE14NE16NE15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.