Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:26PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 7:30 PM CDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:00AMMoonset 12:34PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 203 Am Cst Tue Mar 7 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 201 am cst...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located 10 nm west of port wing safe harbor...moving north at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Castle danger...brule point...and twin points safe harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4704 9169 4716 9147 4720 9133 4673 9154 4672 9174
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201703070830;;132282 FZUS73 KDLH 070803 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 203 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017 LSZ143>145-162-070830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 230004
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
704 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 348 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
high pressure over the great lakes region will continue to shift
to the east, and an upper-level ridge will move into the northland
from the west this evening. Southerly flow will bring an influx
of warmer and more humid air into the northland through tonight,
bringing increasing cloud cover. A shortwave trough will lift
from the northern high plains through the northland by the wee
hours of the morning, and the lift from the wave will help deepen
up the atmospheric moisture, likely deep enough to produce some
light snow. The best chances for the snow will be across the
arrowhead, where up to a half inch of snow is possible. Other
parts of the northland could get a light dusting.

The southerly flow will continue Thursday, with the upper-level
ridge axis shifting east of the northland and shortwaves lifting
into the northland in its wake. The shortwaves, combined with the
deepening moisture, will likely result in widespread light rain by
later in the afternoon. Highs will primarily in the 30s, but low
40s are forecast for north central minnesota.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 348 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
main challenge for the long term include precipitation types
Thursday night through Monday. Temperatures should be cold enough
for a wintry mix during the night with mainly rain during the day.

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is forecast to extend from
the central plains northeastward into the minnesota arrowhead
Thursday evening. A combination of convergence and isentropic
upglide should provide enough forcing for ascent to yield
precipitation beginning late afternoon or during the evening
hours. Initially, temperatures should be warm enough for all rain,
but a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow will develop by mid-
evening. Warm temperatures aloft over portions of the minnesota
arrowhead and northwest wisconsin raise concerns regarding the
availability of ice crystals for snow. A deep elevated warm layer
will also contribute to melting any snow which is able to develop.

The potential for freezing rain is greatest over those areas,
with the highest ice accumulation over portions of ashland, iron,
and price counties. As with most freezing rain events, antecedent
surface temperatures will play a significant role in the
precipitation type. Temperatures on Thursday should be in the
middle to upper 30s and could result in all rain for much of the
event. Given the continued uncertainty, elected not to issue any
headline products on this shift. Ice accumulation of around one-
tenth of an inch is possible, especially over portions of price
county, and later shifts will need to re-evaluate the need for
headlines.

The band of precipitation will gradually drift southeastward
through our forecast area by late Friday morning as the front sags
south. Precipitation should change back to rain as intensity
slows. The 12z deterministic models all trended drier over the
northland for Friday through early Saturday morning, but the
ensemble members warrant keeping pops over northwest wisconsin. An
area of low pressure, which is forecast to loiter over the
central plains Thursday night and Friday, will wobble
northeastward Saturday and Sunday bringing a wintry mix back into
the picture. By Monday, high pressure will begin to push into the
area and will bring the precipitation to an end. Dry and quiet
conditions are expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night before
another chance of showers pushes into the area.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 704 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
vfr conditions early this evening will gradually deteriorate as
MVFR ceilings slowly develop from west to east overnight as well
as a chance for snow shower reducing visibility to MVFR levels at
times. Latest observations and models suggest a drier airmass over
northern minnesota than previously anticipated, leading to
ceilings not falling as fast as previously expected and little
precipitation reaching the ground despite what radar returns might
suggest. It's possible some sites remainVFR all night, especially
dlh and hyr. Light south-southwest winds overnight, around 5 to 10
knots.

Wednesday morning there wil be a break in precipitation and likely
vfr ceilings before an approaching warm front causes light rain
and much lower ceilings to develop, with ceilings becoming ifr
towards the afternoon and light rain/mist reducing visibility to
at least MVFR levels. Temperatures should be warm enough that
precipitation remains all rain at most sites, with some snow
possibly mixing at times. Winds increase out of the south, with
gusts to around 25 knots possible in the morning hours,
but then not as strong in the afternoon.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dlh 26 37 30 43 / 30 50 80 20
inl 25 43 29 40 / 10 40 50 0
brd 30 39 32 47 / 10 50 70 20
hyr 26 38 33 45 / 20 40 90 50
asx 25 39 31 44 / 30 40 90 30

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Grochocinski
long term... Huyck
aviation... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi43 min ENE 8 G 13 29°F 20°F
PKBW3 7 mi151 min N 5.1 31°F 1031 hPa (-3.0)18°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 37 mi51 min NE 12 G 14 32°F 1029.1 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 56 mi51 min E 8.9 G 11 27°F 1029.8 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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N5
G10
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N4
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SW5
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G20
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NE1
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G13
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G17
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G17
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G21
W9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi37 minENE 1210.00 miFair30°F23°F75%1029.1 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi36 minE 610.00 miFair28°F20°F72%1029.1 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi36 minESE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds26°F17°F69%1030.2 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi36 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F14°F51%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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N9N9N11
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G17
NE11CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE10E8NE8NE8NE4NE12
1 day agoCalmCalmW9CalmW17
G22
W12NW17
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NW16NW9NW11NW14
G21
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CalmNW8NW4N9N3
G14
NW12NW9
G14
NW3N10
G15
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW13W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.