Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 9:08PM Sunday June 24, 2018 11:37 AM CDT (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:46PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ144 /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-180617t2100z/ 322 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 17 2018
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 400 pm cdt... For the following areas... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 322 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to nearly 50 knots and small hail, located along a line extending from 6 nm southeast of split rock bay, to 7 nm west of bayfield peninsula sea caves, to near herbster, moving east at 35 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island lighthouse, split rock bay, castle danger, sand island, barkers island, twin points safe harbor, beaver bay, bayfield peninsula sea caves, brule point, herbster, superior harbor, larsmont, and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts to nearly 50 knots, small hail, high waves, dangerous lightning, and heavy rains. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. Anyone on the water near the apostle islands sea caves should rush to shore and find shelter immediately! && a tornado watch remains in effect until 900 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4666 9203 4669 9207 4666 9211 4667 9211 4694 9187 4715 9149 4726 9134 4724 9061 4691 9081 4693 9086 4691 9091 4692 9095 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4673 9151 4666 9193 time...mot...loc 2021z 257deg 36kt 4714 9124 4693 9120 4679 9136
LSZ144 Expires:201806172100;;691205 FZUS73 KDLH 172022 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 322 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018 LSZ142>147-162-172100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 241143
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
643 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018

Update
Issued at 642 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
updated aviation section below for 12z TAF taf issuance.

Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 351 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
a weak flow pattern continues for the area today, with a weak cold
front slowly oozing south across northern minnesota. Aloft, we are
in between two stronger shortwaves, which are within a broader
cyclonic flow. This weak flow regime means that nearly any thing
can trigger showers and even thunderstorms, and even at this hour
we have some showers over the minnesota arrowhead north of the
front. These are expected to slowly diminish over the next few
hours as convergence in the area gradually weakens as the front
sags farther south. An upper low to our west over eastern wyoming
this morning will gradually push east towards minnesota today and
tonight, gradually focusing precipitation chances on the inverted
trough currently extending from a low over SE colorado north
across the plains to south dakota. Tonight a weak wave ejecting
out of this upper low should push a band of showers storms north
across western minnesota, brushing our western forecast area
overnight. Precipitation chances continue across the western and
southern forecast area as the upper low slowly moves east across
the nebraska south dakota border on Monday. The surface low to our
west is going to interact with lake superior to produce east winds
for much of the area today and Monday, producing cool temperatures
in the mid 50s to mid 60s near lake superior and 70s and low 80s
elsewhere. This effect will be stronger today with the initially
stronger winds, but winds diminish somewhat for Monday and allow
warmer temperatures in general.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday)
issued at 351 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
the main areas of focus for the long-term forecast continue to be a
few rounds of showers and thunderstorms for much of the northland,
with mostly above normal temperatures, especially for the mid- to
late-week period.

Monday night Tuesday morning finds a cut-off stacked upper-level low
embedded within a longwave upper-level ridge. The cut-off low will
be led by upper-level difluent flow, so large-scale deep lift will
be associated with this system, along with a 35 to 45 low-level jet
which will help to enhance warm air and moisture advection. Pwat
values are progged to rise to the 1.2 to 1.7" range, which is not
too anomalously high for this time of the year, but still would be
around 90% of climatology per the naefs mean pwat climatology
analysis. Instability looks to be lacking with this system, with
mucape values during this time frame ranging from a few hundred up
to 800 j kg, per the 24.00z GFS and NAM models. Effective bulk shear
looks to be rather low as well, so any showers and thunderstorms
that develop will have a difficult time becoming strong. Looks like
some heavy rainfall will be more likely with some of the
thunderstorms, particularly over northwest wisconsin where between
one quarter and up to one inch of rainfall will be possible Tuesday
morning. Winds will be easterly during the day Tuesday as well, so
we decreased temperatures slightly, particularly for areas along
lake superior, where it will be cooler than farther inland. Highs
Tuesday will range from upper 50s lakeside to the lower 70s inland.

Eventually, the cut-off low will advance eastward Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. A northern stream wave could bring a small chance
for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly along the international border,
during the day Wednesday, but will quickly move out Wednesday
evening. The upper-level flow then becomes more zonal, leading to a
westerly flow regime from Wednesday through the rest of the week. At
the surface, the results will be winds from either the south or the
west, which is more favorable for warmer temperatures, even along
lake superior. High temperatures will warm into the lower 80s for
Thursday, with lower to middle 80s Friday. Heat index values for
Friday could reach into the middle to upper 80s over much of the
northland. Some spots may even reach into the 90s for heat indices
over our southern tier of counties. Southerly flow ahead of a
transient shortwave trough will lead to humid conditions as well,
with dew points possibly increasing to the middle to upper 60s
Friday, and again on Saturday, mainly for the southern half of our
forecast area both days.

Friday through Sunday will have a few rounds of precipitation once
again as a couple of transient shortwaves eject from a low-amplitude
longwave trough over the pacific northwest. While these waves will
be transient, they are progged to occur in succession during this
time frame, so there should be breaks in precipitation between each
wave. There is the potential for some strong storms during this time
frame as the GFS model is progging some larger values of mlcape, but
there is quite a bit of disagreement between the GFS and the ecmwf
and gem models regarding the amount of instability, so confidence
remains low for now.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 642 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
showers this morning over the arrowhead may affect khib this
morning before diminishing. Breezy east winds have swept some
stratus into kdlh this morning with ifr ceilings. Another area of
ifr stratus is affecting kinl. Both of these locations should
improve back toVFR sometime between 15z and 18z... Though I would
not be surprised to see a delay in this clearing trend with the
strength of the east winds at kdlh.VFR conditions are expected
after 18z. Breezy east winds to affect kdlh with gusts of
20-25kts through at least 02z before diminishing some. Lower
clouds to move back into the area after 06z, but should remainVFR
at the terminals until after 12z.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 57 48 66 52 10 20 20 60
inl 72 50 77 56 10 10 20 10
brd 74 55 76 60 10 40 30 60
hyr 71 53 77 59 10 10 10 70
asx 57 47 67 53 10 10 0 60

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for wiz001.

Mn... Beach hazards statement through this evening for mnz037.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for lsz121-
142>148.

Update... Le
short term... Le
long term... Jts
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi55 min NE 13 G 20 53°F 1018.8 hPa47°F
PKBW3 7 mi157 min ENE 6 49°F 1018 hPa (+2.0)
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 11 mi37 min NE 16 G 18 48°F 50°F1020.6 hPa (+2.1)45°F
45028 - Western Lake Superior 14 mi37 min ENE 16 G 18 48°F4 ft1016.6 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi62 minENE 18 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy52°F48°F88%1019 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi42 minENE 14 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F46°F81%1018.6 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi42 minE 18 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy52°F45°F77%1018.8 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi62 minE 16 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F44°F72%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from DYT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E5E6E13E11E8NE8NE8NE13NE12NE12NE15NE16NE20
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1 day agoE4NE4NE3CalmCalmE4E7NE6NE5NE6NE7NE8E5E6E6E7NE3N3NE5NE6E3CalmE3E4
2 days agoNE9E9NE5NE6NE5NE5E4E5NE5NE7NE5E7E5NE6NE3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.