Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:15 AM   Moonset 3:13 PM

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LSZ144 /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0031.000000t0000z-231005t2000z/ 229 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Two harbors to duluth mn - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4691 9165 4705 9109 4694 9096 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4682 9127 4674 9158 time - .mot - .loc 1929z 256deg 36kt 4684 9149

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 042018 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 318 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower activity this afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms in the Minnesota Arrowhead before showers taper off this evening.

- Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass overhead tonight are expected to aid in fog and frost formation tonight.

- Breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in the low to mid-30% range on Monday.

- An active pattern continues with plenty of chances for rain showers and thunderstorms through the week. The next round of rainfall begins Monday night into Tuesday, with non-severe thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

As a cold front departs, there will be a brief window this afternoon where shower activity will prevail. There is just enough MUCAPE (<500 J/kg) to spark a few thunderstorms across NE MN. Shower activity should commence with sunset leaving fairly clear skies as high pressure builds overnight.

Expect fog to develop though a little unsure on the density, so for now have a broad brush patchy fog wording in the forecast.
May need dense fog advisories depending on how this plays out.
There is a little potential for the fog to frost out as temperatures approach the mid to lower 30s.

A little break from the rain on Sunday before the next system begins to push in on Monday bringing stronger winds and dry conditions before rain arrives in the overnight hours between Monday and Tuesday. The parent low to this is attendant to a closed upper level low spinning over western ND. This spawns the cold front over the Northland giving the potential for thunderstorms and some stronger downpours with a narrow strip of PWATs exceeding 1.25" as it crosses. Shear profiles aren't conducive to severe weather, so not expecting any storms to be strong, but do expect them to be around.

That same upper level that spawned the Mon-Tue storm will slowly move east and wrap vort maxes around it giving a chance for shower activity through much of the remainder of the work week.
While the secondary low it spawns looks like it will miss us to the south or just brush NW WI, late in the week, still think there is enough variance in the guidance for that forecast to change, so keep an eye out for forecast updates in this period as a little wobble north could increase our chances for heavier rain.

With compact lows that are moving through the region, could see some elevated winds throughout the week. Given the nature of compact lows, that also means wind directions will be variable and can change quickly.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR conditions with a stripe of IFR in rain will transition to showers this afternoon with IFR becoming less likely. Shower activity should subside by sunset with high pressure building in. Clear skies overnight will likely (80% chance) lead to fog formation, so have included hints of IFR fog in the TAFs. Winds will be generally light and will eventually become mostly northwesterly.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Areas of marine fog are possible through Sunday morning. Light winds under high pressure prevail through Sunday morning before becoming west-southwest at 10-15 knots. No concerns until Monday when northeast winds and waves increase.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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