Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duluth, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 4:23PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 12:49 PM CST (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 2:44AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ144 400 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 400 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from sugar loaf cove, to 7 nm southeast of castle danger, moving east at 65 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, split rock bay, castle danger, sugar loaf cove, larsmont, tofte safe harbor, twin points safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4695 9181 4701 9174 4715 9149 4758 9088 4762 9078 4766 8994 4704 9027
LSZ144 Expires:201810032130;;191249 FZUS73 KDLH 032100 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 400 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2018 LSZ141>144-146-147-162-032130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duluth, MN
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location: 46.76, -92.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 181751 aaa
afddlh
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
1151 am cst Tue dec 18 2018

Update
Issued at 1151 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

Update issued at 730 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
the stratus formed over northern minnesota instead of closer to
the surface boundary back in eastern south dakota. There is more
moisture showing on the 12z soundings, and though not as much as
the models had forecast, enough for the stratus to form over
northern minnesota instead of closer to the surface boundary.

Expect this stratus to expand, spreading over the remainder of the
forecast area by late morning, then shifting east to allow some
breaks to develop from west to east later this afternoon and this
evening.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 314 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
the weather that has been so quiet lately is turning more active
once again, as a shortwave moves across manitoba and ontario,
sweeping across northern north dakota and minnesota during the day
today. Yesterday the models were implying that stratus would form
along the weak warm front developing over south dakota, then
spread northeast into the forecast area during the morning. There
is not a single indication of stratus developing in that area as
3am satellite imagery, or on observations, and the soundings in
that area from last evening are quite dry. Instead, we have
stratus developing in the flow off lake superior along the north
shore generally north of silver bay, which is spreading steadily
inland. It is not classic lake effect that would be producing snow
as there is not enough temperature difference between the lake
and the air to produce convection, but there is just enough
moisture in the upstream airmass and moisture transport off the
lake to help produce these clouds. These clouds should slowly
sweep northeast and should clear out of the arrowhead by early
afternoon as the low level flow turns to the south and then
southwest. There is still the question of the stratus, whether it
will be moving our way later this morning or not- several models
are still indicating that we will have stratus moving in during
the morning, but suspect the models are overdoing the amount of
moisture in the lower layers as sometimes happens in this synoptic
set-up, and the dry soundings from upstream last night support a
lack of stratus this morning. However, there is an area of mid and
high cloud that should move our direction, and have gone ahead
and allowed the increased sky coverage during the day today, which
moves off to the east overnight tonight. There should be enough
sunshine today to allow temperatures to get above guidance once
again, with highs in the 30s to near 40 today.

Wednesday the next clipper moves across the area, bringing some
chances for precipitation from mid morning on. Given how warm it
has been, it is no surprise that we are looking for a
rain sleet snow mixture, as a broken band of precipitation moves
across the area during the daytime, to the great disappointment of
snow lovers. High temperatures should be in the mid and upper
30s, enough to keep it from being freezing rain as it moves
through. This wintry mixture may bring a period of nasty road
conditions as temperatures begin to dip back below freezing late
in the day.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
issued at 314 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
a bit cooler in the wake of a cold front late-week, then a
reinforcing round of colder air arrives late weekend with another
cold front, but still temperatures will remain near to above normal
through early next week. Precipitation chances with the late-weekend
cold front will be minimal, with less than an inch of snow expected
across the northland, if any.

On the synoptic scale the pattern across southern canada continues
to be progressive with a number of weak mid-level disturbances, but
the cold air typical for winter remains locked up further north with
no signs of breaking into southern canada or the northern parts of
the CONUS through early next week. Wednesday night into Thursday an
organized mid-level longwave trough and associated surface cold
front will move across the upper midwest resulting in a chance for
light precipitation and slightly cooler air in its wake (850mb temps
approaching -10c), with a mid upper level ridge building in for the
early part of the weekend. A more compact mid-level shortwave trough
tracks across the international border over the northern plains and
upper midwest late in the weekend resulting in another chance for
light precipitation, with colder air (850mb temps -15c to -18c)
briefly brushing the northland on Sunday night into Monday.

Wednesday night into Thursday there is a risk for mixed
precipitation types, with the possibility for a period of light
freezing rain causing light icing on elevated surfaces before
changing over to all snow. Total precipitation amounts will be light
regardless of type, with less than a tenth of liquid-equivalent
expected. Surface temperatures will be critical to precipitation
type, and given temps during the day are forecast to be above
freezing, timing of the precip will matter - an earlier frontal
passage will lead to more rain than freezing rain snow, while an
overnight passage could lead to more freezing rain snow. Greatest
sensible weather impacts would be expected during the Wed evening
and Thursday morning commutes. Breezy northwest winds in the wake of
the front Thursday with gusts approaching 30 mph during the morning
hours. Lows Wednesday night in the mid 20s to low 30s, highs
Thursday in the mid 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds in towards
Friday with at least partly sunny skies. Highs in the upper teens to
upper 20s, which is still a few degrees above normal for this time
of year.

Over the weekend another chance for light precipitation - this time
all snow - with colder temperatures. Depending on the speed of the
large-scale features, precip may begin as early as Friday night or
as late as Sunday morning, but despite the wide variance in timing,
the overall frontal passage looks similar across most guidance,
with the result being a chance for up to 1-2 inches of snowfall
coming down at a fairly light rate. Temperatures closer to normal,
highs in the upper teens to mid 20s, lows in the mid single digits
above zero to the mid teens.

Looking ahead to the christmas holiday and beyond, there may finally
be a change in the large-scale pattern arriving at some point. The
00z ECMWF depicts a warm front building across the northland on
christmas with a chance for measurable snowfall, with support from a
few GEFS ensemble members. The current model consensus leans more
towards timing the surface low and associated warm front later in
the week, but overall there seems to be support for a change to a
pattern more favorable for accumulating snowfall at some point next
week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1131 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
MVFR stratus will gradually erode this afternoon at hib inl as a
weak high builds in. All other terminals will seeVFR conditions
through the afternoon with ceilings around 150-200 kft.

Skies will clear enough tonight where some fog and low level
stratus as flow becomes southerly ahead of a low developing in
southern manitoba. Backed off a bit from the previous forecast in
lower MVFR visibility ceilings. The NAM hits MVFR ifr conditions
the hardest whereas the GFS gfslamp rap and the hrrr guidance
only hint at this possibility. Most confident in the MVFR ifr
conditions at hyr as there is consensus amongst guidance. Less
certain at other locations at this point in time. Expect
precipitation to spread into the forecast area late in the taf
period or afterward.

Marine
Issued at 351 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
increasing southwesterly winds today into tonight will lead to
building waves across parts of the north shore. The window for
stronger winds is fairly short, with the worst of the winds and
waves from early this afternoon through the early evening hours.

Winds will be strongest along the south shore, port wing to sand
island, where gusts may approaching 30 knots at their strongest late
this afternoon before quickly diminishing tonight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 35 26 37 29 10 0 30 30
inl 31 22 37 26 0 0 50 40
brd 40 26 38 29 0 0 20 20
hyr 40 28 39 31 0 10 30 40
asx 39 29 40 31 0 0 30 40

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 10 pm cst this evening for lsz140-146-
147.

Update... Wl
short term... Le
long term... Jjm
aviation... Wl
marine... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 1 mi49 min W 2.9 G 4.1 32°F 1010.5 hPa (-1.8)21°F
PKBW3 7 mi109 min SSE 1.9 31°F 1012 hPa (-2.0)20°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Duluth - Sky Harbor Airport, MN4 mi53 minno data10.00 miFair34°F23°F65%1010.8 hPa
Richard I. Bong Airport, WI5 mi54 minSW 410.00 miFair35°F23°F62%1010.5 hPa
Duluth International Airport, MN7 mi54 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F21°F66%1011.6 hPa
Cloquet Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi54 minSSW 710.00 miFair34°F23°F65%1009.5 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days agoE4----------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.