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FXUS61 KCAR 021440 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1040 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track southwest of Maine today. High pressure will build over the area Friday into Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will approach Sunday then slide across the area Sunday night. High pressure will build south of the area Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
Surface low pressure will track southeast across New England today, with high pressure ridging south across the Maritimes.
Aloft, a trof crosses the region today while a disturbance moves through the base of the trof. The system will bring rain to mostly west-central and southwest portions of the forecast area. Lesser rain chances are expected across eastern and northern portions of the forecast area, nearer to high pressure ridged across the Maritimes. Only isolated/scattered showers are possible across northeast portions of the forecast area. High temperatures will range from around 50 to the lower 50s across west-central and southwest portions of the forecast area where the most extensive clouds and most persistent rain is expected.
Across eastern portions of the forecast area high temperatures will range from the mid 50s to around 60, with the warmest temperatures across northeast areas. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures, clouds and rain chances.

Previous Discussion...
The surface low is expected to be in the vicinity of Cape Cod later this afternoon, and fairly quickly pull away from the southern New England coast this evening. A mid level low will cross southern Maine early this evening and also quickly pull away from the coast tonight. A surface ridge will begin to build down into Maine tonight. An area of rain will overspread the Central Highlands and into Hancock County this morning, and taper to showers and end this evening. Clouds will likely hold in tonight with a light northeast flow and lows will mostly be within a few degrees of 40F.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak high pressure will build over the area on Friday. However, we will be on the edge of some moisture to our east wrapping back from an upper low south of Nova Scotia. This will bring a partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable day with inland highs in the mid to upper 50s across the area. A thin ridge of high pressure will remain over the area Friday night. The upper low to our southeast will be moving away to the east. However, some moisture ahead of a weak occlusion will begin to stray into the area bringing a partly to mostly cloudy night. Weak high pressure will be nearby to our northeast on Saturday as a bit of moisture continues to stray into the area from the occlusion to our west. This will bring a partly to mostly cloudy sky on Saturday. However, any showers should remain to our west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to slide to our east on Sunday. A corridor of moisture supported by lift out ahead of an upper trough lifting through the Great Lakes, and surface convergence associated with an approaching occlusion, will continue to very slowly approach Saturday night into Sunday. A few showers may begin to move into the area Sunday afternoon as the occlusion pushes in. However, both the surface occlusion and the upper trough look rather weak and there are currently no signs of any well organized precipitation. Scattered showers may last into Sunday evening across most of the area, with scattered to isolated showers over the north on Monday as the occlusion pushes east and a weak upper trough remains north of the region.

Weak high pressure will return on Tuesday and last into Tuesday night although some thin moisture will linger beneath an upper trough centered well to our north. This will bring partial cloudiness Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Our focus on Wednesday will turn to a new trough of low pressure and surface occlusion pushing east from the Great Lakes region. The upper trough is currently looking a bit disorganized with one low just north of the Great Lakes and another low in the upper plains.
However, this one looks like it may carry a bit more moisture into the area than the trough coming through over the weekend, bringing a chance of showers late Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures through early next week should be near normal, to perhaps a few degrees above normal.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR at the Aroostook terminals today with MVFR ceilings developing tonight. However, a chance for MVFR ceilings to move into KHUL later today. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, Downeast today with rain and patchy fog. MVFR Downeast tonight with showers early along with patchy fog. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots today. Northeast/north winds 5 to 10 knots tonight.

SHORT TERM: Friday...VFR. Light NNE wind

Friday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Saturday...VFR Light SE wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR late. Light SE wind.

Sunday...MVFR, possibly dropping to IFR late. S wind.

Sunday night...MVFR. S wind.

Monday...VFR. SW wind.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Rain today, then showers early tonight. Patchy fog today into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through the coming weekend and early next week. Some humid air over the waters early next week may produce some patchy fog or light mist.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Bassin De La Rivi?re St-Charles, Quebec, Tide feet

Montmorency
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Thu -- 01:43 AM EDT     3.10 meters High Tide
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     0.77 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 01:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:46 PM EDT     3.74 meters High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:28 PM EDT     0.67 meters Low Tide
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Montmorency, Quebec, Tide feet

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