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FXUS61 KCAR 131358 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 958 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure exits across the Maritimes today. A storm system approaches from the west tonight and Tuesday, crosses the region Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday. High pressure builds in Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
Mid level cloud deck across the region is staring to thin out, so expect partly sunny skies to continue to develop through mid morning. Visible imagery does show cloud advancing east from Quebec province ahead of the next system. Expect these clouds to start to move into western areas later this afternoon. No changes to currently forecasted highs at this time.

Previous discussion...
An upper low over the area will slowly drift east into the Maritimes today and fill. In its place, a shortwave upper ridge will build eastward over the area today and crest over the forecast area tonight. The upper ridge will bring subsidence and warming to the area today. As a result, inland temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 60s inland today. A few 70F readings cannot be ruled out. The exception will be on the coast where onshore winds will limit highs closer to 60F.

The air mass remains very dry and have reduced dew points and relative humidity. The dry air mass will also produce another very deep mixed layer that should produce high temps on the high side of guidance. In fact, today will be one of the warmest days of the year to date for inland locations.

In terms of clouds, fair weather cumulus will develop for the afternoon. Thicker clouds arrive tonight ahead of the approaching warm front. The increasing clouds and strengthening south winds led to Monday low temperatures dropping no lower than the low to mid 40s.

Precip with the warm front will likely hold off until early Tuesday morning for the western edge of the forecast area.
At the same time, increasing humidity could result in some fog by early Tuesday morning...mostly in higher terrain of Piscataquis County and along the Hancock County coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned warm front will lift through the area on Tuesday, while a cold frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. This will set up a zone of rain from the Central Highlands to the north and west. Amounts up to 0.30 inches are possible during the day Tuesday in the North Woods. Less rain to the south and east, but showers and drizzle will still be possible. Although dew points will rise into the 50s, onshore flow, clouds, and precipitation will limit highs to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Patchy to areas of fog are expected across the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The boundary will slowly shift southward Tuesday night into Wednesday, with weak waves riding along it. Kept likely PoPs for rain in place through Wednesday for much of the area, with high chance of showers far northwest and at the coast. PoPs begin to decrease Wednesday night. However, there is still some uncertainty as to how fast things dry out. Thus, kept chance PoPs through the night. Patchy fog will be possible once again Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows both nights in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Ridging will begin to build towards the area on Thursday.
However, there will still be enough upper troughing nearby for the threat of at least a few showers on Thursday. However, there will be a bit more sunshine than previous days, resulting in warmer temperatures. The ridging will build in Thursday night and Friday, reducing the shower threat. Not out of the question that many places away from the coast reach or exceed 70 degrees on Friday. The only fly in the ointment as a weak shortwave passing north of the area on Friday. This could bring some clouds and an afternoon shower or two. Models continue to disagree on the timing of a system over the weekend along with threats of showers. That said, temperatures remain above normal through the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through late tonight at all sites. Then IFR cigs are likely to move northward into BGR and BHB by late tonight into early Tuesday morning. LLWS is possible by early Tuesday morning. S wind 5 to 10 kt through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday-Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain and patchy/areas of fog at times. S 5-15kts with gust to near 25kts on Tuesday, then S 5-10kts Tuesday night/Wednesday becoming N 5-10kts late Wednesday night over Aroostook terminals.

Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR with ocnl MVFR cigs with -SHRA.
BCFG at Coastal Terminals Thu AM and Fri AM. NNE 5-10kts Aroostook terminals, E-SE SE5-10kts Downeast Thursday/Thursday evening, then E-NE 5-15kts Friday.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight. Humid air moving over the cold waters stands likely to generate at least some patchy fog by late tonight. This stability also led to reductions in model winds.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas build to borderline Small Craft Advisory levels on the outer waters Tuesday night. Conditions on the Intra-Coastal waters remain below SCA criteria. Winds and seas subside to sub-SCA for Wednesday. Wave heights could build above Small Craft Advisory criteria Thursday into Friday. Fog and rain will reduce visibility on the waters at times Tuesday night through Thursday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Bassin De La Rivi?re St-Charles, Quebec, Tide feet

Montmorency
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Montmorency, Quebec, Tide feet

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