Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashford, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:11PM Thursday September 20, 2018 12:40 AM PDT (07:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 830 Pm Pdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..S wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..S wind to 10 kt becoming 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming sw 5 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon.
Sat night..Variable wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..N wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
PZZ100 830 Pm Pdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Onshore flow strengthens tonight. A frontal system will impact the waters late Thursday into Friday with increasing southerly winds. Another system will maintain onshore flow over the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed over portions of the waters at times. Higher pressure and offshore flow will prevail Monday through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashford, WA
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location: 46.81, -122.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 200435
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
930 pm pdt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis Showers and a puget sound convergence zone will
dissipate Thursday morning. A stronger pacific system will bring a
warm front to western washington late Thursday. The associated
surface low and trailing front will bring some rain and breezy winds
to the area Friday and Saturday. Showers will decrease Sunday. Dry
offshore flow develops Monday and persists through mid week.

Short term Onshore flow has strengthened with enough flow through
the strait and south sound to produce a broad convergence area of
showers. Radar and obs indicate spotty light rain with mostly trace
amounts so far. The wrf4km 12z run shows this area of showers but
not developing until later tonight. Convergence zone showers should
dissipate rapidly Thursday morning as gradients ease.

A warm front will brush the area late Thursday and Thursday night.

Rain will reach the coast, olympics, north interior, and
north central cascades. Much lighter amounts will occur south over
puget sound with most the deep moisture tracking into the north.

Showers will likely ease behind the front but breezy south winds
will develop. Winds will continue to be breezy Friday into Saturday
as a 995-1000 mb low moves into vancouver island. It could be
locally windy, especially across the north interior. Over an inch of
rain is expected by Saturday north of around everett. Much less rain
to the south where shadowing will also hinder rainfall in the
central sound. Mercer

Long term Previous discussion... Onshore flow with clouds and
showers will gradually decrease Saturday into Sunday. Showers will
gradually become confined to the mountains and to a possible puget
sound convergence zone, especially later Saturday into early Sunday.

Temperatures will generally range from the mid 40s to mid 50s at
night, then into the 60s during the day.

Models show very good consistency and continuity next week as a
strong upper level ridge builds offshore and low level high
pressure builds over british columbia. The developing pattern
results in the development of moderate to strong low-level
offshore flow beginning on Monday and continuing through the
upcoming week. Expect mostly clear skies next week with
temperatures ranging from the 40s to lower 50s at night to the 70s
during the day. A model blend that favors the warmer GFS solution
was used to construct the temperature forecast. Albrecht

Aviation Onshore flow is producing a broad area of convergence
enhanced showers across parts of greater puget sound this evening.

The wrf4km 12z run kept this going off and on through tonight and
dissipating Thursday morning. Onshore flow and added moisture from
rainfall will increase the chance for low MVFR stratus including
ksea kbfi by 12z. A warm front will spread rain to the coast
Thursday afternoon and barely clip the ksea kbfi terminals southward
by the evening. Dtm
ksea... The light precipitation this evening around puget sound
including the sea bfi terminals will dissipate later tonight and
Thursday morning. This will bring additional moisture down closer to
the surface with a higher chance of low MVFR CIGS by 11-12z. The
cigs were raised to 2k but given the current trends will likely
lower them again with the 06z issuance. CIGS will be variable but
MVFR until rising toVFR by late Thursday morning. The air mass will
remain moist and stable on Thursday as a warm front clips the
region late. Dtm

Marine Onshore flow has strengthened with over +1 mb through the
strait and small craft westerlies in the central east portion until
5 am pdt. A lull in winds will occur Thursday morning. A stronger
pacific frontal system will arrive Thursday night and Friday with
increasing southerly flow over the waters. The flow will turn
onshore Friday night and Saturday as this system moves inland.

Offshore flow will develop early next week as a thermal trough forms
along the coast. Dtm

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Thursday
for central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-east
entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland
waters including the san juan islands.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 37 mi46 min 58°F 56°F1019.1 hPa
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 37 mi46 min SSE 4.1 G 6
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 57 mi46 min SE 5.1 G 6 59°F 56°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pierce County-Thun Field, WA24 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast57°F53°F88%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from PLU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm34CalmW4CalmSW63Calm33Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4Calm35Calm4
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm54CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tacoma, Commencement Bay, Washington
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Tacoma, Commencement Bay, Sitcum Waterway, Puget Sound, Washington (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.