Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grayland, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:40PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:44 PM PST (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ110 Grays harbor bar- 149 pm pst Fri nov 16 2018 combined seas 6 to 8 feet. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 1115 pm Friday and 1215 pm Saturday.
PZZ100 149 Pm Pst Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..High pressure over the pacific will build east tonight and Saturday. This will increase an easterly offshore flow tonight and this weekend. Initially strong, the winds will weaken by early Saturday and remain offshore this weekend. The weather will be quiet for several days with the high pressure and no marine weather concerns. By mid-week, potentially the next system with impact for the region will begin to push in from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grayland, WA
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location: 46.86, -124.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 162227
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
226 pm pst Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis High pressure strengthens tonight through the weekend.

Offshore flow develops tonight and will intensify Saturday. This will
result in very windy conditions for the west end of the columbia
river gorge. The offshore pattern continues into early next week, but
will be more confined to the gorge. The next chance of precipitation
is expected to return to the area Tuesday night or Wednesday. A
stronger system will likely impact the area thanksgiving day.

Short term Tonight through Monday... Early afternoon water vapor
imagery shows a sharp upper level ridge centered from near 55n 140w
to 35n 130w. A short-wave disturbance within northwest to north flow
aloft was noted over southern british columbia and far NE washington.

Goes 16 and 17 imagery show stratus generally confined to the cental
and south willamette valley along the interstate 5 corridor. The
stratus has been slowly eroding from the west since the late morning
hours. Earlier weak echo returns from krtx and klgx dual-pol doppler
radars have diminished. The higher resolution models, such as the
hi-res arw and nssl suggest no additional precipitation expected for
sw washington and the north oregon coast as the low-level flow shifts
to the north. North surface gradients will continue through this
evening as surface high pressure strengthens over the NE pacific.

Air quality readings early this afternoon are generally in the
moderate category for the willamette valley and a mix of good to
moderate for SW washington. The north low-level flow should help to
maintain decent air quality. Also, northwest to north mid-level wind
flow will not be conducive for california smoke to advect into the
area.

The 12z model runs stay the course of the previous couple of runs. At
21z the kttd-kdls gradient was slightly negative or offshore, which
corresponds well with the 12z nam. The offshore low-level gradient
will continue to strengthen overnight through Saturday as the upper
ridge axis moves toward the coast. The kttd-kdls gradient is expected
to be around -9 mb Saturday afternoon. Initially, the offshore flow
will have some degree of impact across a larger area, since it will
be more synoptic-scale in nature. Thus, would expect fairly good air
quality conditions Saturday. Even the most sheltered areas, such as
the south willamette valley and lower columbia interstate 5 corridor
around kkls should have enough surface mixing to preclude poor air
quality. Cold air damming on the east side of the cascades Saturday
night through Sunday will result in more of a gap wind flow through
the gorge. Expected MAX gusts for this offshore event should be on
the order of 65-75 mph for the most exposed areas such as crown
point, 50-60 mph at corbett and 35-45 mph for kttd. This event does
not look as strong as the previous one and not anticipating the need
for a wind advisory at this time.

By 00z Sun GFS 850 mb temps are forecast to be around 0c in the
central gorge and upper hood river valley to 10c along the coast. The
hi-res arw model shows increasing boundary layer rh and lowering
condensation pressure deficit values. Believe these higher resolution
models are not handling the cold air damming process sufficiently and
think there will be an extensive stratus field over the columbia
basin that bleeds into the central gorge and upper hood river valley
sat night or sun. The offshore gradient starts to weaken Mon as the
upper ridge axis shifts to eastern oregon and washington.

Strengthening valley inversions will limit MAX temp potential. Air
quality may start to become an issue in some areas as early as sat
night and then more-so Sun and mon. Weishaar

Long term Monday night through Friday. The upper level ridge
begins to shift east of the area late Monday. Forecast models
continue to not be in great agreement for much of next week, but
confidence is increasing that the next frontal system will at least
begin to approach at some point Tuesday. The pattern then appears to
shift to a more active time, with a series of disturbances making
their way through the region. While confidence in the overall
pattern is increasing, confidence in the finer details
- including timing - remains lower than average. Therefore, those
that may be traveling around the thanksgiving holiday should stay
aware of potential changes to the forecast in the coming days. Cullen

Aviation Just enough drying has occurred in the low levels of
the atmosphere to allow low clouds to break up across much of
the pdx metro area this afternoon. Meanwhile, low clouds and
ifr MVFR CIGS prevail across SW washington. Valley inversions
remain strong south of ksle, with low clouds and fog just now
beginning to show some breaks over the southern willamette
valley. Keug may get a few hours ofVFR between 23z-04z, then
fog low clouds are likely to redevelop. Ifr fog low clouds are
also likely to redevelop overnight for the remainder of the
willamette valley, though increasing offshore flow will likely
cause these to be short-lived Sat morning.

East winds are likely to increase through the columbia gorge
early Sat as high pressure strengthens east of the cascades.

Valley inversions will likely keep these winds from surfacing
initially at kpdx and kttd, potentially resulting in a few hours
of llws Sat morning. Will include in kpdx TAF but leave llws out
of the kttd TAF due to uncertainty in when the east winds will
surface at kttd.

Pdx and approaches... A few areas of low MVFR persist this
afternoon, mainly on eastern approaches. Otherwise, conditions
are primarilyVFR and should remain so into this evening. Expect
ifr CIGS and some impaired vsbys as fog and low clouds redevelop
after 08z, especially west of portland. East winds are expected
to increase aloft early Sat morning, bringing a period of llws
between roughly 11z-17z. East winds are expected to surface and
gusts up to 25 kt are likely at kpdx by Sat afternoon. weagle

Marine Light to moderate N winds today will veer to more of an
e-ne wind by Saturday, with gusts up to 25 kt and locally higher
possible by afternoon. Will hold off on a SCA for wind, as it
remains to be seen how widespread this will be and or whether or
not the stronger winds will be confined to the gaps in the
coastal terrain. Based on latest computer model guidance, it does
look like the push of offshore flow will be deep enough to be
widespread across the waters. W swell 6 to 8 ft will subside
tonight and Saturday, with seas becoming more wind driven through
early next week. Longer range forecast guidance suggests the pac
nw may return to an active weather pattern with frontal systems
beginning to affect the waters by midweek. Weagle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA 4 mi69 min E 8.9 G 9.9 54°F 52°F1022.2 hPa
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) 9 mi45 min 53°F6 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 12 mi45 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 1022 hPa (-1.3)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 45 mi45 min 53°F6 ft
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi45 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 52°F1022 hPa
46041 - CAPE ELIZABETH- 45NM Northwest of Aberdeen, WA 49 mi55 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 57°F7 ft1023.1 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Westport, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hoquiam, Bowerman Airport, WA10 mi52 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast57°F52°F83%1022.9 hPa

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Last 24hrSW3SW4CalmS3S3S9S8SW9SW12SW10SW8SW5SW6W7SW5SW5SW5CalmCalmNE5NE5E7E9NE6
1 day agoSW5SW5SW3CalmCalmS43S4SW5E4E4CalmNE3CalmCalmNE3E7NE3E3E3SE3W5W7SW6
2 days agoNE4E3E4E4E6E7NE4NE6NE5E4E5NE4E5S17
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay City, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Bay City
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:43 AM PST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:24 AM PST     5.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:08 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:50 PM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:38 PM PST     5.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.21.11.52.43.54.65.55.95.95.54.843.32.92.83.13.84.55.15.24.94.33.4

Tide / Current Tables for Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current
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Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:25 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:20 AM PST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:21 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:01 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:21 AM PST     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:08 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:28 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:05 PM PST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:34 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:22 PM PST     -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-0.40.511.31.41.30.90-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.6-1-0.30.20.50.50.50.3-0.4-1.2-1.8-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.