Saturday, February23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
White Pine, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:46PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:42 PM CST (21:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ241 200 Pm Edt Sun Sep 2 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over the waters... The areas affected include... Black river to ontonagon mi... Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royal national park... Ontonagon to upper entrance of portage canal mi... At 159 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to around 30 to 34 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 nm east of the western lake superior buoy to 40 nm northeast of saxon harbor, moving east at 30 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 to 34 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. Report severe weather to the coast guard or nearest law enforcement agency. They will relay your report to the national weather service forecast office. && lat...lon 4723 8982 4759 8894 4700 8888 4697 8894 4695 8911 4683 8931 4679 8971
LSZ241 Expires:201809021845;;605016 FZUS73 KMQT 021800 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018 LSZ241-242-263-021845-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near White Pine, MI
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location: 46.86, -90     debug

Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 232101
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
401 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 401 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

High impact winter storm to affect the region tonight through

water vapor imagery and sfc obs show a strong negatively-tilted
shortwave trough and associated sfc low (near 998 mb) over eastern
ks which is expected to lift NE and reach the upper great lakes late
tonight early Sunday. Models have been in pretty good agreement with
general track strength of storm system the last several runs, with
the exception of the NAM which has been consistently farther west
with mid-upper level low than rest of models. Strong negatively-
tilted shortwave trough and associated sfc low will continue to lift
up from the central plains with the sfc low reaching near manistique
in upper mi by 12z Sun while deepening to near 979 mb! The low keeps
a quick pace and continues to bomb out as it lifts into northern
quebec at around 970 mb by late Sun evening. Models have been fairly
consistent with the placement and amounts of precip and the strength
of the system, again with the exception of the farther west
solutions of the nam. Biggest forecast concern tonight with the
system will be determining where exactly the system's dry slot will
be moving into central and eastern sections of u.P late tonight
night early Sun which will likely cut into mixed pcpn snow amounts
for these areas. Again, 12z NAM appears to bring dry slot farther
west than model consensus which could potential cut into snow
amounts for perhaps dickinson eastern marquette counties.

Expect a lull in pcpn activity this evening as snow which prompted
the advisory has generally weakened and exited to the east. As a
result cancelled the advisory although there could be patchy light
freezing drizzle light snow at times into early evening. Biggest
impacts from system will be late tonight into Sunday.

Main hazards are very heavy snowfall (especially over the NW half),
a snow sleet freezing rain combo se, and strong winds (especially
near lake superior) developing on Sunday. Heavier synoptic pcpn
moves in from the south by late Sat evening and largely exits by
midday Sunday with NW flow lake effect snow remaining thereafter.

Forecast hasn't changed much from the mid shift. A general
widespread 10-15 inches of storm total snow is expected generally
west of line from negaunee to crystal falls, much of which falls
between 06z and 18z sun. Snow will be wet and heavy. Over the se
half where dry slot and mixed pcpn will cut into accums, 2-8 inches
of snow (least along lake mi and bay of green bay) is expected along
with sleet and freezing rain accumulations, which are less certain
due to effects of potential dry slotting later tonight. Up to one
quarter inch of ice accumulation is possible over the far SE and
eastern portion of the cwa. NW winds increase dramatically on sun
when the system bombs out and continues to quickly lift ne.

Currently forecasting NW gusts to 60mph over east half of lake
superior and shoreline areas east of marquette, with gusts of 40-
50mph elsewhere, but could end up higher given the impressive
strength of the system. Blowing drifting snow and power outages will
be primary impacts from the wind. Considerable blowing snow near
lake superior E of harvey and across the keweenaw will likely lead
to blizzard conditions at times and impossible travel Sun afternoon
into Sun night. Certainly possible winter storm warning may need to
transition to a blizzard warning for alger-luce-northern schoolcraft
and across the keweenaw on Sunday.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 227 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
as synoptically-driven snow winds down Sunday night, lake-effect
snow showers will pick up on the backside of this well-advertised
low pressure system exiting the region. Models all generally
agree of the placement of the low, which should be in northern
ontario by the start of this forecast period. There are some very
minor disagreements on the strength of the low, but all generally
agree of it reaching below 975mb by tomorrow night. With the low
still being in such close proximity to upper michigan, NW winds
will remain elevated through at least midday Monday, especially
in the eastern portions of the u.P. As the day progresses, look
for the NW winds to become more westerly, yielding the les to
shift with it. Look for high pressure to briefly move into the
region on Tuesday, allowing for a brief reprieve for many.

On the heels of this high, another shortwave rotates across the
upper great lakes, although deterministic models start to diverge
significantly in their depicted solutions by this time period. That
said, there is some general agreement in another brief break from
the active weather on Thursday before a late week system approaches
and crosses the area.

Tomorrow night, temperatures will plummet into the single digits on
either side of the zero degree mark, with even colder overnight lows
expected Monday night into Tuesday morning (below zero nearly
everywhere). The well-below normal temps for late february into
early march will continue throughout this forecast period, with
highs on Monday struggling to get out of the single digits, then
teens and 20s for the remainder of the upcoming week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 210 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
light snow generally ending early this afternoon with only a few
flurries light fzdz possible into early evening. Heavy snow is
expected at all sites mainly after midnight tonight as
strong deepening low pressure system tracks toward eastern upper
michigan. For most part, expect MVFR conditions into this
evening, with vlifr vsby of 1 4 sm or less likely overnight
tonight with the heavy snow. Poor flying conditions will continue
through Sun evening with very strong northwest winds Sunday into
Sunday evening. Wind gusts may exceed 40 kts at all sites by late
Sunday morning early afternoon due to the powerful low pressure
system. The strong winds will also result in considerable blowing
snow at all sites on Sunday with vsbys possibly lingering into
lifr through 18z.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 401 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
quiet through tonight with winds generally 25 or less knots.

Northerly gales expected Sunday morning across lake superior,
building to NW storms to 50-55 knots over the eastern half of the
lake Sunday afternoon and night. Gales subside over the western half
Sunday night and over the eastern half midday Monday. After that,
quiet conditions expected through the middle of next week with gusts
less than 20 knots over the western half and less than 25 knots over
the eastern half.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

winter storm warning from 10 pm est 9 pm cst this evening to 1
am est midnight cst Monday for miz001>005-009-084.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est Monday
for miz006-007-085.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm est 9 pm cst this evening to
10 pm est 9 pm cst Sunday for miz012>014.

Winter storm warning from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday
for miz010-011.

Lake superior...

storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for

Storm warning from 10 am to 10 pm est Sunday for lsz243>248-264-

Gale warning from 7 am est 6 am cst Sunday to 1 am est
midnight cst Monday for lsz162-240>242-263.

Lake michigan...


Short term... Voss
long term... Lg
aviation... Voss
marine... Voss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 31 mi62 min SSW 2.9 G 7 36°F 1011.2 hPa
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 41 mi42 min ENE 11 G 13 30°F 1012.5 hPa (-4.2)30°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ironwood, Gogebic-Iron County Airport, MI23 mi46 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast32°F26°F79%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from IWD (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7SW4NW4CalmCalmE3CalmSE3SE3E7E3E7E6E7E11E11SE12SE6SE11SE13
1 day agoW7SW7--SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmSW3S4SW5SW6SW6S7SW7SW5S53SW8SW5SW6SW5S7SW7
2 days agoE7E5E4E3CalmCalmSW4SW6W6W10--W11W14W11W11W10W11--W12W10W9W9W9W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.