Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 9:08PM Sunday June 25, 2017 3:48 AM CDT (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:05AMMoonset 9:24PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 700 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 17 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... At 659 pm cdt...radar showed an area of Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 33 knots...half inch hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from near twin points safe harbor...to 9 nm northwest of port wing safe harbor...moving east at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Herbster...sand island...and apostle islands sea caves. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4691 9156 4714 9137 4715 9073 4691 9094 4682 9132
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 Expires:201706180045;;398690 FZUS73 KDLH 180000 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 700 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017 LSZ143-146-147-162-180045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 250552 aac
afddlh
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
1252 am cdt Sun jun 25 2017

Update
Issued at 1252 am cdt Sun jun 25 2017
update for new 06z aviation discussion below.

Update issued at 936 pm cdt Sat jun 24 2017
embedded pieces of energy are rotating through the forecast area
and will do so through the night. Periodic showers are expected
through the night and have adjusted pops to reflect trends from
latest radar, as well as short term hires models. Rest of the
forecast in good shape.

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 248 pm cdt Sat jun 24 2017
the northland will remain under the influence of an upper-level
trough tonight and through the day Sunday. A mid-level trough with
a concentrated positive vorticity maxima will translate to the
east- southeast this evening away from the region, and the low-
level band of frontogenesis will also begin to pivot to the west.

By Sunday morning, a band of channeled vorticity associated with a
secondary shortwave trough will enter the northland. This will
once again bring more chances of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm for Sunday. Lift will be enhanced as a corridor of
low-level frontogenesis will once again be present due to a
baroclinic zone developing ahead of a push of cold air advection.

More chances of thunderstorms will be possible as low-level lapse
rates steepen during the late morning and afternoon hours.

However, just like today, instability looks to be pretty meager,
with values of MUCAPE between a few hundred up to 1000 j kg,
depending on the model. Model soundings show some shallow and thin
cape profiles, so again a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but
not expecting anything severe. However, there could be some
occasional lightning and small hail possible for Sunday, given the
low freezing level. This wave will eventually move off to the
east by the evening and overnight hours Sunday.

With the cold air advection and abundant cloud cover,
temperatures will once again be well below seasonal average for
Sunday, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over the
bwca and minnesota arrowhead regions, to the lower to mid 60s
over north-central minnesota and across our southern areas,
including northwest wisconsin. This is about 10 to 15 degrees
below average, so temperatures will once again be close to record
low highs Sunday.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 248 pm cdt Sat jun 24 2017
the pattern will shift from northerly flow aloft over the region
to quasi-zonal by mid-week as several shortwaves move through in
the northern stream. Upper troughing is forecast to move into the
central CONUS late in the week into Saturday.

The models are in better agreement in general but do show
significant timing and track differences with the various
shortwaves which will have an impact on the northland's weather.

The best agreement comes early, Sunday night into Wednesday. A
shortwave will continue to move through the northland with showers
and a few thunderstorms continuing Sunday night with chances
highest over far eastern areas. High pressure over the northern
plains Sunday night will slowly move east toward western minnesota
on Monday. A weak shortwave trough may still cause some showers
on Monday, mainly over the arrowhead and parts of northern
wisconsin. It's possible we may have to spread some low pops
further west but will hold off on that for now. Highs Monday will
be in the sixties to around seventy.

The high will pass east of the northland Monday night into
Tuesday morning allowing the low level flow to become southerly.

This will bring in warmer air and should also result in more
sunshine. We expect highs in the seventies.

A stronger shortwave and low pressure system will move through
the northern plains Tuesday night into minnesota on Wednesday then
continue east Wednesday night. We ramp up pops from west to east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There remains a chance for some
strong storms Tuesday night with strong severe storms possible
Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

There will be periodic chances for showers storms Thursday
through next weekend as several more shortwaves are forecast to
affect the region. There will likely be some dry periods but with
all the model uncertainty, it's too difficult to determine when at
this time. Temperatures will be near or below normal.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1252 am cdt Sun jun 25 2017
a few lingering showers are present across the region, in
particular kinl. Focus for the next six hours are on a shortwave
feature moving into the forecast area that will impact the
majority of sites with rain, reduced visibility, and lower
ceilings. Many sites will get down into MVFR or ifr conditions and
the consensus blend of short term guidance was handling the
ceilings best as of late. Concerned with the ceilings at khib
getting down to lifr so added a tempo for overcast at 300 ft. Some
gusty winds are possible Sunday, particularly in the afternoon
across multiple sites.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 49 60 46 68 40 70 50 10
inl 49 60 43 69 80 70 20 10
brd 49 64 45 70 30 20 10 0
hyr 48 63 45 68 40 70 40 20
asx 49 63 46 69 60 70 50 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Huyck
short term... Jts
long term... Melde
aviation... Wm huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi48 min NW 9.9 G 11 53°F 1015.1 hPa (+0.0)52°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi68 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 55°F 1014.6 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 36 mi48 min N 9.9 G 18 58°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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G18
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G24
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NE1
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G14
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W9
G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi55 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast52°F48°F89%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W8W7SW5W8W11W9
G18
W8
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W9W8W9W8W12W10
G15
W8W7W8W7W6NW4W3W4W4W6
1 day agoSW7SW7SW7SW7W8W9W10
G17
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G25
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W15NW7NW11
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W11W11W7W8W11W11W8W12
2 days agoCalmW3S4SW5W7SW5CalmNW6NW4SW5SW74SW6SW8SW9SW10SW11SW9SW8SW8S6S4SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.