Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:33PM Monday March 27, 2017 7:43 AM CDT (12:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:54AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0045.000000t0000z-160919t0545z/ 1213 Am Cdt Mon Sep 19 2016
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 1245 am cdt... For the following areas... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Sand island to bayfield wi... At 1210 am cdt...doppler radar indicated severe Thunderstorms...capable of producing dangerous winds in excess of 50 knots and small hail... Located along a line extending from 15 nm southeast of mouth of the cross river...to 23 nm northeast of raspberry island...to near red cliff...moving northeast at 55 knots. SEvere Thunderstorms will remain over mainly open waters. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds...high waves...dangerous lightning...and heavy rains. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. && lat...lon 4703 9020 4689 9073 4723 9091 4768 8986 4760 8982 time...mot...loc 0512z 235deg 54kt 4734 9065 4727 9040 4691 9068
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ147 Expires:201609190545;;636279 FZUS73 KDLH 190513 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1213 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016 LSZ147-162-190545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 271125
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
625 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 358 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017
a few areas of wintry mixed precipitation are expected this
morning before high pressure builds for the afternoon, yielding
dry and partly cloudy conditions through Tuesday.

Mainly cloudy skies were found across much of the northland at
330 am this morning. Areas of fog have been reported, with some
locales experiencing patchy dense fog. A few rain showers were
found across the southern portion of our wisconsin zones, mainly
south of a line from spooner to new post, to park falls. Another
area of radar echoes was observed over central and portions of
north-central minnesota, but precipitation was not reaching the
ground. Temperatures were at or a few degrees above freezing in
northwest wisconsin, to the upper 20s to low 30s in northeast
minnesota.

A weak cool front arced from southeast saskatchewan across
northern north dakota and northern minnesota into northern ontario
this morning with a ridge of high pressure over the canadian
prairies. A trough of low pressure aloft was over the central
dakotas, with a smaller shortwave trough was over northeast
minnesota. Two ribbons of cyclonic vorticity marked the eastern
edges of both troughs. Forcing for ascent with the leading trough
was supporting the showers over northwest wisconsin, while the
trailing and deeper trough blossoming the radar returns in central
and northern minnesota. A low-level wedge of dry air on the inl,
mpx, and abr 27.00z soundings suggests those echoes will need to
intensify before saturating the column enough to reach the
surface. Have added some low chance pops from the brainerd lakes
into the arrowhead this morning as the precipitation processes
aloft continue and lift northeastward. The showers over northwest
wisconsin are expected to drift east-southeast with time and
should exit the forecast area later this morning or early this
afternoon. Thermal profiles over minnesota suggest a possibility
for light snow or rain showers, while rain or freezing rain is
favored in northwest wisconsin. Any areas which receive freezing
rain this morning can expect only a thin glaze, which will melt
quickly after sunrise. The cool front will sag southeastward today
before virtually washing out by early evening. Nudged temps a
little warmer today, especially in the western zones, but still
cooler than consensus. Think the lingering cloud cover will be
slow to erode this morning and early afternoon, limiting diurnal
heating.

Partly cloudy to mainly clear skies are expected for tonight as
high pressure drifts overhead. With recent mild temperatures,
precipitation, and some melting snowpack, think fog and low
stratus will develop tonight, especially in north-central
minnesota and north of the iron range. However, the light winds
and mainly clear skies early should be sufficient to cool much of
our minnesota zones below the consensus blends before fog
develops. Have nudged the overnight lows cooler as a result. High
pressure will remain in control on Tuesday yielding mainly sunny
to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures should climb a few degrees
warmer, except near lake superior where onshore flow will work to
keep highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 358 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017
upper level and surface ridging will cover the forecast area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. The surface ridge remains on
Wednesday while a baggy shortwave approaches from the west. This
baggy shortwave in the northern stream begins to phase with the
southern streams closed low moving through the central plains
Wednesday night. Differences begin to show up in the handling of
this melange, especially in regard to qpf. The ECMWF is more
bullish with QPF into north-central wisconsin by 12z Thursday.

Leaned to the drier approach of the gfs/gem and have a dry
forecast Wednesday night. Thursday and Thursday night finds the
northern stream disconnecting from the southern stream on the gfs
which keeps a dry forecast/surface ridging over the region. The
gem/ecmwf maintain the phasing until late Thursday night. Used a
blend which favored the gem/ecmwf which had QPF tracks across the
southeast portion of the wisconsin forecast area Thursday and
Thursday evening, before the system departs late. A surface high
drifts over the region Friday with weak upper ridging. The models
come into better agreement with the handling of the mass fields
Friday night and Saturday. An upper-level shortwave trough
crosses the forecast area late Friday night through Saturday. A
cold front will sweep across the region. Thermal profiles suggest
a rain/snow mix late Friday night changing to all rain Saturday.

Model differences return for Saturday night and Sunday. The gem
has a clipper moving over the region, while the gfs/ecmwf feature
surface high pressure nearby, but large differences aloft. The gem
was ignored. Used a blended approach which resulted in some low
chance pops with the rain/snow mix in the evening, snow late,
then back to rain during the day Sunday with just enough upper
forcing nearby to warrant a mention.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 625 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017
vfr at the start of the forecast over the minnesota terminals,
ifr at hyr. There are some showers in the vicinity of hyr and have
a mention early. Areas of br are also occurring over northwest
wisconsin. The ifr CIGS over northwest wisconsin will improve to
MVFR late this morning, thenVFR in the early afternoon. TheVFR
cigs will persist over the minnesota terminals until late in the
forecast when some br is expected to develop with MVFR vsbys
possible.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dlh 45 28 47 28 / 10 0 0 0
inl 47 24 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
brd 55 29 57 31 / 10 0 0 0
hyr 47 27 54 27 / 20 0 0 0
asx 43 27 45 27 / 10 0 0 0

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Huyck
long term... Gsf
aviation... Gsf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi43 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 33°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.4)33°F
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 29 mi63 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 1014.9 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi63 min Calm G 1 33°F 1014.6 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 36 mi37 min W 1.9 G 6 34°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashland, Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi50 minN 010.00 miOvercast33°F32°F96%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4N6NE6NE5N6NE6NE8N7NE6NE7NE6N5N5NE3CalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE8NE11NE10NE12NE11NE10NE12NE11NE15
G20
NE13NE10NE7NE9NE9NE10NE9E8E9NE4N3NE3CalmN3N3
2 days agoNW3NW5N8N7N9N9NE9N8NE11NE9NE8NE7NE9NE9NE8E12NE9E11NE7NE8E7NE8NE9E10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.