Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM   Moonset 3:08 PM

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LSZ147 Expires:202310052341;;564170 Fzus73 Kdlh 052332 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-147-052341- /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time - .mot - .loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 040854 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 354 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate rain continues through this morning and afternoon before tapering off this evening last in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. An isolated thunderstorm is possible (20% chance) near the Iron Range this afternoon.

- Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass overhead tonight are expected to aid in fog and frost formation tonight.

- Dry conditions Sunday giveway to a warmup near 70 F Monday when there is a 40% chance of near-critical fire weather conditions as breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in the low to mid-30% range.

- The next round of rainfall begins Monday night into Tuesday, with non-severe thunderstorms most likely in northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The slow moving, weak cold front that moved into the region overnight is producing an axis of low to mid-level convergent flow from the Brainerd Lakes into the Arrowhead early this morning. Combine this forcing with a southerly moist jet with Gulf air, the widespread light to locally moderate rainfall within the convergent axis has brought up to a few tenths of an inch of rainfall overnight so far. Rainfall rates and amounts will increase during the daylight morning hours for the I-35 counties in MN and US Hwy 53 counties in WI though as the mid- level frontal forcing pushes eastward within the deeper mid to upper level trough to align better with the moisture. A quarter to half-inch of rainfall is expected for those locations by late this afternoon. Frontal-associated rainfall exits the region by mid-afternoon as dry air in the mid-levels pushes into the southern half of the Northland from the west and the front exits the region. In far northern Minnesota (north of US Hwy 2), a secondary vort max drops into north-central Minnesota from the north by mid-day today. Residual wrap-around moisture (0.5" PWAT progged in guidance), mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, around 100 J/kg of MUCAPE and 20 knots of effective shear may (20% chance) support isolated thunderstorm development from Bemidji- Grand Rapids- Hibbing and northward. The most likely hazards in those thunderstorms would be very localized moderate rainfall and pea size hail. Other locations in the Arrowhead, Brainerd Lakes and Twin Ports are expected to see another period of scattered rain showers in this afternoon time period.

As the secondary vort max exits the Arrowhead by mid-evening later today, dry air subsidence ends all shower chances overnight tonight. Deterministic guidance progs the 850 mb air mass from 0 to -2 C for far northern Minnesota. Combine this cold air mass, light winds under surface high pressure and residual moisture trapped in the boundary layer, there is potential (40% chance) of fog development in the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. If locations closer to the Brainerd Lakes that see precipitation end earlier today and the dry air mixes out the surface layer enough, then frost could instead form tonight for those locations.

A dry day on Sunday sees temperatures rebound into the low to mid-60s across the region as surface high pressure exits the region to the east and a mid-level ridge builds overhead from the west; promoting southerly air advecting into the region beginning Sunday night.

Gusty southeasterly low-level winds mix out Monday morning to create breezy conditions around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph for parts of east-central and north-central MN. Relative humidity in the low to mid-30 percent range may (40% chance) create a period of near-critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon as temperatures are forecast to peak around 70 F. The fuel guidance from land management agencies will also be monitored for input due to recent rainfall and how the spring "green up" proceeds in this early week period.

Precipitation chances build Monday evening as a low pressure moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains Monday afternoon. The warm front passes over the region Monday night to create a period of likely (80% chance) widespread rainfall and possible (30% chance) thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon as the low pressure retrogrades in the Northern Plains. The best chance of non-severe thunderstorms will be in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. In all, there is a 60-70% chance of at least 1/2 inch of rainfall for northwest Wisconsin and east-central and the Arrowhead in MN.
The upper-bound of isolated rainfall is 1-1.25" with a 20% chance of occurrence in localized areas of east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday.

Ensemble cluster analysis shows high confidence on the vertically stacked low pressure center remaining over the Northern Plains, which may (20-30% chance) keep the Northland in a continued wet pattern into next week as well before the deep low ejects eastward by late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A band of light to locally moderate rain persists in the Brainerd Lakes to the Arrowhead for the rest of tonight as a frontal boundary drapes over the Northland. Expect light west to southwesterly winds in north-central Minnesota west of the boundary and light and variable surface winds in northwest Wisconsin through early Saturday morning. As the responsible low pressure centered in Ontario pushes eastward, expect the better rain chances after 10Z and through 20Z for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including MVFR ceilings and visibility.
Winds shift westerly and then northwesterly behind the frontal passage by later Saturday daytime. An area of scattered showers is likely (60% chance) to form behind the front along and north of US Hwy 2 in Minnesota from 17Z Sat to 01Z Sun. Steep lapse rates aloft may (10-15% chance) support an isolated thunderstorm somewhere from a BJI-INL-HIB-ELO bounded region in far northern Minnesota in that time period, but chances are much better for localized MVFR vis reductions again in these showers.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A band of persistent light to moderate rainfall today and tapering this evening may (60% chance along the South Shore and 40% chance for the North Shore) result in marine fog Saturday night into Sunday morning. No headlines are expected currently, but if dense fog does form tonight then some could be necessary.
Otherwise, light winds under high pressure prevail through Sunday morning before becoming west-southwest at 10-15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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