Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayfield, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:37PM Sunday February 17, 2019 7:41 PM CST (01:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:07PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ147 Expires:201810032230;;193128 Fzus73 Kdlh 032159 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018 Lsz140>143-146-147-162-032230- 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 459 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 14 nm east of tofte safe harbor, to 7 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, raspberry island lighthouse, sand island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4693 9026 4695 9099 4724 9136 4758 9088 4772 9055 4779 9029 4784 8966
LSZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayfield, WI
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location: 46.86, -90.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 172340
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
540 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 355 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
generally quiet conditions are expected through the short term as
the main storm track remains to the south of the area. Only
concern is the light lake effect snow along the north and south
shores of lakes superior.

Upper level low pressure is seen near sioux city, iowa, this
afternoon with a longwave trough extending back to the northwest
into the northern high plains. At the surface, an area of low
pressure in the western ohio valley trails an inverted trough to
the northwest into the red river valley of the north. Areas of
snow are seen along the trough, but this activity is having
difficulties making it north of i-94 in minnesota. The edge of the
cloud shield has pushed into the southern cwa, but have yet to see
any reports of snow in our CWA despite some light radar returns.

Dry air and lack of saturation are keeping things dry in the
northland from this system. Further north, onshore winds off lake
superior have led to some lake effect snow from the silver bay
area down into the twin ports. Additional bands have developed and
moved over the bayfield peninsula and iron county. Most of this
should diminish heading into the evening hours per hi-res
guidance, but some light flurries may linger into late evening.

Snow showers may persist in iron county through the night and into
Monday morning before quickly ending during the early afternoon as
winds turn off-shore.

Beyond that, dry conditions are then expected through Monday
night as weak high pressure moves through. Some northern areas
may clear out tonight, leading to better radiational cooling
conditions. Most areas will be in the single digits below zero,
but areas that clear out will have no issues getting into the
teens below zero. Highs will reach into the teens on Monday before
cooling back into the single digits below zero Monday night.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 355 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
a fairly active weather pattern will remain in place across most of
the continental u.S. From mid week through next weekend, but the
atmosphere has acquired a flow regime that is now (finally) closer
to what one would expect during an EL nino winter - with a very
active southern stream storm track, and a weaker northern stream
from the canadian prairie provinces to the northern great lakes. For
the most part, this will leave the northland in between storm
tracks, with comparatively quiet weather compared to locations
farther north, or south. The other major effect this will have on
the northland is that temps will be near, or slightly below normal,
rather than the bitter cold that has dominated much of the past
month.

The best chance for organized precipitation, in the form of
widespread light to moderate snow, appears to be Tuesday night and
Wednesday with a well-organized mid level trof ejecting from the
central plains into the great lakes region. At the moment, this
doesn't have the look of a major storm for the duluth cwa, but given
available model guidance, amounts as great as 4-6 inches could be on
the table across much of northwest wisconsin, with lesser amounts
the farther north and west one goes. Given the timing, with snow
moving in overnight Tuesday, there could be some impacts for
Wednesday morning travel commute activity. We will need to monitor
model trends closely the next 24-36 hours, as a subtle northwest
shift in the path of MAX forcing for ascent could push the heavier
snow amounts northward across a much larger portion of our cwa.

Beyond that, a series of weaker disturbances in both the northern
and southern storm track will deamplify as they approach the
confluent mid level flow over the lake superior ontario area, which
will result in continued period chances for light snow. Most
operational model runs are now considerably farther south with the
storm system for next weekend, but we will continue to monitor.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 540 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
much of the northland will be underVFR conditions through the
period. The exception will be around lake superior, mainly from
around silver bay to duluth and into northern wisconsin where MVFR
and possible ifr ceilings will be possible. These ceilings will
occur through tonight, and in the case of northern wisconsin, well
into Monday. There will be periodic snow showers as well,
especially along the south shore and the visibility may dip to 1
to 3 miles and at times to a half mile like recently observed at
kasx.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh -3 16 -1 17 30 10 0 0
inl -11 11 -11 14 0 0 10 0
brd -3 15 -7 14 0 0 0 0
hyr -1 19 0 20 0 0 0 0
asx -2 17 0 21 70 50 10 0

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Bjh
long term... Miller
aviation... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 16 mi41 min ENE 11 G 12 16°F 1024.1 hPa (+1.0)7°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 30 mi61 min NE 15 G 19 15°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI22 mi48 minNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds13°F6°F74%1024 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE7NE4NE5NE6E3CalmCalmNE3NE3NE3E3E5E5NE14NE13NE12NE14NE14NE10N13NE14NE8
1 day agoSW5NW4N4CalmNW4W5SW3W4SW5S4W6CalmW3SW4CalmCalmNE3N8N8N6N8NE7NE5E5
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W12W11W12W12W11W12W12NW11
G20
W9SW7SW6S5W5NW6NW5NW7NW7SW5W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.