Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 4:02 AM   Moonset 5:08 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KMSO 050835 AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 235 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

DISCUSSION
A low pressure system has moved into northern California, the counter clockwise or cyclonic flow is pushing showers north into Lemhi County, ID currently. Showers will continue to push north throughout the day.

Cooler temperatures associated with this system will bring snow levels down to about 5000 feet by Monday morning. Motorists should expect snow over Homestake, Lost Trail, and Lolo Passes as well as Gilmore Summit in Idaho. Chances for 2 inches of snow by Monday morning about about 20 to 30% in higher terrain of Lemhi County, ID.

75% of the models are showing that most locations will receive around a quarter of an inch of rain by Wednesday. Higher end amounts from 25% of models, demonstrate widespread 0.50 to 0.75" of rain. Higher terrain could receive 1 to 2" of liquid equivalent, remember above 5000 feet that could add up to 6 to 12" or more of wet snow. Plan accordingly for any back country activities, especially in the Clearwater, Bitterroot, Mission, Swan, and Flathead Mountains.

Expect very breezy conditions each afternoon through Tuesday.
Initially winds will be southeasterly today, then become westerly on Monday and Tuesday.

Once this system gets east of the Continental Divide, it will get wound up and push moisture back west across the Divide. Cooler and showery conditions will continue in western MT potentially through Thursday. Higher terrain in locations like Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshall Wilderness could receive an additional 1 to 2 feet of snow by Thursday morning. If you have plans in these locations please monitor future forecasts.

Thursday high pressure develops over the region with a piece of energy from the current system breaking off, closing off, and migrating over central California creating a blocking pattern. A warm up and dry out is likely through at least Mothers Day.



AVIATION
Gusty east winds have developed across the region.
Throughout the morning showers will move from south to north over Northern Rockies airspace. Heavier showers will begin to affect visibility after 05/18z and a isolated thunderstorm will be possible at KSMN and KBTM after 05/20z, confidence in thunderstorms is still low. Periods of low visibility and ceilings will be common after 06/02z as stratiform rain all terminals and snow at KBTM develops.



MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
ID...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Missoula, MT,