Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:04PM Saturday September 23, 2017 1:15 PM CDT (18:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:22AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 157 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 22 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the twin ports... The areas affected include... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Oak point to saxon harbor wi... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... At 156 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This strong Thunderstorm was located near apostle islands sea caves...moving east at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... Madeline island...la pointe harbor...red cliff...and apostle islands sea caves. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4670 9089 4676 9092 4687 9081 4690 9080 4693 9086 4691 9091 4692 9096 4684 9109 4683 9111 4683 9112 4689 9113 4701 9047 4669 9041 4669 9042
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 Expires:201709221930;;773830 FZUS73 KDLH 221857 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 157 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2017 LSZ121-146>148-162-221930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 231747
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1247 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Update
Issued at 1247 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
updated for the new 18z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 331 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017
the area remains in a very summer like pattern, pinched between a
large trough out over the far western conus, and ridging just
east of the mississippi river valley, with then troughing within
which are embedded hurricane maria and the remnants of hurricane
jose. This pattern is expected to continue through the next 36
hours. This pattern will bring warm and relatively humid
conditions to the area with waves of showers and thunderstorms
moving across the forecast area. Some of these waves will be more
active than others. Our main show of the night with the best upper
level support and mid level is now up in canada, but we have a
somewhat secondary wave that developed over central minnesota.

This wave is in the plume of best moisture and is in the low level
jet, but there is less support at the mid and upper levels for
stronger convection. However, it has produced a decent area of
showers and thunderstorms and have kept fairly high pops for the
remaining early morning hours going. Today this wave will continue
off to the northeast, likely dissipating during the morning
hours. It should be followed by a lull in the convection before
another wave of storms move through mainly minnesota this evening.

Sunday morning there should be another lull, only to be followed
by another round of showers and storms in the afternoon and
evening for mainly northwest and north central minnesota. This
pattern is also going to keep temperatures on the warm and humid
side, with cloud cover keeping a lid on things, and have kept
mostly to the consensus through Sunday.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 331 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017
the persistent southwest flow pattern across the central united
states will finally break down next week leading to near to below
normal temperatures returning after a warm weekend. Precipitation
chances continue through Tuesday as the main longwave mid-level
trough exits across the region, then a break in the precip on
Wednesday. However, with northwest flow developing in the wake of
the mid-level trough a low chance for light rain showers returns
late-week.

On the synoptic scale a mid-level ridge parked over the lower great
lakes region and a slow-moving deep longwave trough over western
states has resulted in a persistent southwest flow pattern at
mid upper levels across the great plains through the weekend into
early next week. The upper midwest will remain within the warm
sector ahead of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary parked along
this southwest flow pattern through Monday before the front finally
pushes east Tuesday. Once the front moves through Wednesday cooler
air will move in from the northwest with at least partially clearing
skies expected. Late week a fast-moving clipper-like mid-level
shortwave trough will approach the region leading to a chance for
light rain showers. Highs in the 50s to around 60 wed-thurs-fri with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Broad area of high pressure
building in late-week should result in clearing skies, which could
result in a widespread frost freeze.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1247 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
a slow-moving cold front will continue advancing east and south
into the arrowhead, twin ports, and northwest wisconsin this
afternoon. There will be widespread ifr MVFR ceilings and some
light showers on the cool side of the front. The front will lift
back north tonight with the development of a strong low-level jet.

Expect this jet and passing weak disturbances to provide the
forcing to trigger some showers and weak storms this evening and
overnight, especially areas closer to the front. Significant low-
level wind shear will develop later tonight once the jet increases
to about 30 to 40 knots of flow from the south-southwest aloft.

There will likely be some lowering ceilings and visibility in
areas overnight, with most of the area seeing a trend to lifr ifr
conditions. Northwest wisconsin and khyr may remain mostly clear
andVFR. There will then be some improvement from the south as
warmer and drier flow picks up.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 78 60 78 59 20 30 10 60
inl 64 53 69 50 40 90 60 70
brd 70 60 79 55 60 60 30 70
hyr 87 65 85 63 10 20 10 30
asx 89 61 85 62 20 20 10 30

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Grochocinski
short term... Le
long term... Jjm
aviation... Grochocinski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi75 min WSW 7 G 8.9 69°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.8)67°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi35 min WSW 12 G 13 68°F 1012.9 hPa
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi35 min SSW 7 G 12 84°F 1013.5 hPa
45028 - Western Lake Superior 42 mi25 min N 1.9 G 1.9 71°F 64°F68°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 47 mi25 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 75°F 65°F70°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi22 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds84°F71°F65%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7S6S64S33S8
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1 day agoN10NE11NE10NE10NE8N5CalmW3CalmCalmSW3W4S4S6CalmS6S6S7SW6NW8
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2 days agoS11
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SW9W9W6SW4CalmSW4SW3CalmSW5CalmSW3W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N7NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.