Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 9:08PM Saturday June 24, 2017 9:01 AM CDT (14:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:00AMMoonset 8:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 700 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 17 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... At 659 pm cdt...radar showed an area of Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 33 knots...half inch hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from near twin points safe harbor...to 9 nm northwest of port wing safe harbor...moving east at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Herbster...sand island...and apostle islands sea caves. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4691 9156 4714 9137 4715 9073 4691 9094 4682 9132
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ146 Expires:201706180045;;398690 FZUS73 KDLH 180000 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 700 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017 LSZ143-146-147-162-180045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 241310 aaa
afddlh
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service duluth mn
810 am cdt Sat jun 24 2017

Update
Issued at 810 am cdt Sat jun 24 2017
update for 12z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 409 am cdt Sat jun 24 2017
cycloninc northwest flow continues over the lake superior region
this morning, with an embedded shortwave moving southeast across
eastern north dakota. Showers associated are associated with this
shortwave, as well as with the frontogenesis band extending along
the 925-850mb baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the 850mb low
center and surface weak cold front trough axis. These features to
continue moving southeast across the forecast area today, bringing
precipitation chances to the forecast area today and tonight. This
extra cloud cover is going to keep temperatures on the cool side,
with some sites along the international border staying in the 50s
during the day. This trend to continue into Sunday, with the
lingering inverted trough serving as a focus for convection as a
secondary weak shortwave moves across the area. Have highest
precipitation chances with highs only in the 50s across the tip of
the arrowhead for Sunday.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 409 am cdt Sat jun 24 2017
summary: broad longwave trough will depart to the east early in the
period with a progressive quasi-zonal flow for much of the week.

Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected with
temperatures remaining near to below normal.

A broad upper level trough will remain over the region Sunday night
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing through
the evening. The cool cyclonic flow aloft should continue to support
isolated showers into the wee hours of Monday morning. Another
shortwave trough will move across the northland Monday morning and
afternoon. Deterministic guidance is split between several dry
members and a few with showers or isolated storms. Most of the gefs
members over the past two runs include some qpf. The ensemble
guidance plus the passing shortwave seem to support at least low
chance pops during the afternoon. Have nudged precip chances in the
arrowhead higher than the consensus blend to better capture the
potential. Temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal on
Monday with highs in the low 60s to around 70 degrees.

The upper level trough will drift eastward away from the northland
Monday night and Tuesday. A mid-level ridge will gradually flatten
as it pushes into the dakotas with surface high pressure sliding
southeast across the eastern dakotas and western minnesota. Expect
increasing sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures for Tuesday in
addition to a break in the precipitation chances. As the surface
ridge axis moves through the northland, winds will turn southerly
ushering in a warm and moist return flow. A warm front will lift
across minnesota during the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and surface low moving into the dakotas during the
afternoon. Highs will be near normal with values in the middle 60s
to upper 70s.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the picture
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Falling heights ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough and additional forcing for ascent on
the nose of a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet should support
the development of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night. Mucape
values overnight of 500 to 1000 j kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of around
25 knots indicate a potential for a few strong or severe storms
overnight. A better chance of severe thunderstorms will develop on
Wednesday afternoon ahead of the surface low and attendant cool
front. Increasing northward moisture transport on south to
southwesterly low-level flow will lead to moderate destabilization
across the southern half of our CWA by Wednesday afternoon. The
strengthening winds aloft will increase 0-6 km bulk shear to 35 to
45 knots with MUCAPE increasing to 1500-2500 j kg. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly south of us highway 2 likely
beginning in central minnesota and pushing east into northwest
wisconsin during the evening.

The shortwave trough and associated surface low will continue
eastward on Thursday with showers diminishing during the early
morning hours. Deterministic guidance diverges on Thursday with the
gfs bringing another cutoff upper low into the canadian prairies
while the ECMWF and gem are less amplified and more diffuse with the
upper trough. In either case, a shortwave trough is forecast to
rotate through the base of the approaching trough by Thursday
afternoon. The consensus blend would keep the northland generally
dry, however, the GEFS members support at least a chance of showers.

Have decided to increase pops Thursday afternoon through Friday to
bring a chance of rain to most of the northland. With the
approaching upper trough and cool cyclonic flow developing, think
the rain chances will be diurnally driven and should diminish
overnight into Saturday morning.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 810 am cdt Sat jun 24 2017
broad upper-level trough continues to loiter over the region with
a compact but potent shortave trough passing through the eastern
dakotas and minnesota. Scattered rain showers are likely across
the area today into this evening. Along with the showers, MVFR
ceilings can be expected this morning. Conditions should begin to
improve this afternoon as the shortwave moves away from the
northland.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 64 48 60 45 40 30 70 30
inl 58 48 60 43 50 70 70 20
brd 64 49 64 45 40 30 30 10
hyr 65 48 63 44 50 30 50 30
asx 66 48 62 46 40 40 60 40

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Huyck
short term... Le
long term... Huyck
aviation... Huyck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi61 min WSW 14 G 15 53°F 1011.3 hPa (+0.9)51°F
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 29 mi61 min WNW 8 G 14 56°F 1010.8 hPa (+0.6)
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi81 min SW 6 G 9.9 56°F 1011.2 hPa
45028 - Western Lake Superior 42 mi31 min W 9.7 G 9.7 55°F 52°F1 ft51°F
45027 - North of Duluth, MN 47 mi31 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 50°F48°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi68 minW 810.00 miOvercast56°F51°F84%1012 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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W15NW7NW11
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W11W11W7W8W11W11W8W12W9W8W7SW5W8W11
1 day agoCalmNW6NW4SW5SW74SW6SW8SW9SW10SW11SW9SW8SW8S6S4SW7SW8SW7SW7SW7SW7W8W9
2 days agoCalm33SW6SW6SE5S6N9NE11NE8E7N5N4CalmS4N6N5CalmCalmW3S4SW5W7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.