Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 4:31 PM

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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt - .
for the following areas - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near - . Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout - .possible hail - .0.00in wind - .40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 050811 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog this morning will lift between 8-9 AM for most.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Monday with breezy southeast wind and humidity dropping to 30-40 percent for most.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms develops Monday night and continues through Thursday. Highest chances will be Monday night into Tuesday evening.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today into Monday...

Patchy fog was occurring this morning under high pressure and light winds. The fog will lift for most by 9AM. There was a relatively narrow band of clouds moving east through western into northern Minnesota and these will continue but should decrease this afternoon. There will be some additional cumulus that develops but skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs will be in the sixties for most areas.

Mostly clear skies will occur tonight with low in the mid- thirties to mid-forties.

Shortwave ridging will move through Northland Monday with strong low pressure over the Northern Plains. We kept Monday dry, going with consensus that keeps the showers west or south of the Northland until Monday night. The pressure gradient will strengthen Monday between the low to the west and high pressure off to the east and gusty southeast will develop. Winds around Lake Superior will be off lake and strongest in the Twin Ports area. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday with the gusty winds and humidity values dropping to 30 to 40% for most. Highs Monday will be in the mid- sixties to around seventy but it will be much cooler with the breezy off lake winds around Lake Superior.

Monday night through Thursday...

Showers and some thunderstorms will develop Monday night and continue into Tuesday evening with increasing forcing from the upper low and surface low/fronts. A southerly 850MB low level jet of 40-50knots is expected to aid in moisture transport and PWAT values are forecast to climb to 1.25" Monday night into Tuesday. Forecast instability isn't very high but some thunderstorms will occur through Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected. Rainfall amounts Monday night into Tuesday night range from a third of an inch to a but more than an inch. Ensemble models have the highest chances for exceeding 1" of rain at 20-40% up the I35 corridor and along the North Shore. Some locally higher amounts will be possible, especially with the thunderstorms.

The upper low will remain over the Northern Plains into Wednesday then it will shift east and south late week week.
Showers will remain over the Northland into at least Thursday although rainfall amounts will be lighter compared to the Monday night into Tuesday evening period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The main issue for the period will be fog tonight into Sunday morning. Observations were showing fog developing with the visibility down to a half mile in Solon Springs to 5 miles in a few spots as well. Light or calm winds will lead to more fog overnight and we lower the visibility in most TAFs tonight. The fog should lift by 14Z for most areas then VFR conditions are expected through the day into the evening. There may be some passing VFR ceilings tonight as seen over parts of northwest Minnesota and some VFR cumulus that develops with heating today.
Winds will be at or less than 10 knots for most through the period with some higher gusts.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Winds are expected to be at or below 15 knots today into tonight. There may be some patchy fog in spots but it's expected to lift this morning.

Winds will be easterly on Monday and they will strengthen through the day as the area will be between strong low pressure over the Northern Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds will strengthen further on Tuesday. Conditions will become hazardous, mainly for smaller vessels Monday roughly from Silver Bay to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. As winds increase Monday night into Tuesday, hazardous conditions will become more widespread.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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