Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:33PM Saturday November 17, 2018 2:08 PM CST (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:19PMMoonset 12:37AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ146 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 459 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 14 nm east of tofte safe harbor, to 7 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, raspberry island lighthouse, sand island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4693 9026 4695 9099 4724 9136 4758 9088 4772 9055 4779 9029 4784 8966
LSZ146 Expires:201810032230;;193128 FZUS73 KDLH 032159 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 459 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2018 LSZ140>143-146-147-162-032230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 171730
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1130 am cst Sat nov 17 2018

Update
Issued at 1130 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
updated for the latest 18z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 348 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
relatively quiet period for the short term. High pressure will
slide southward across the northern plains with drier air moving
into the northland. Low stratus and lake effect snow showers
(including inland lake effect) will taper off as winds back
westerly today and southwesterly this evening. Skies are expected
to become mostly sunny for most locales by late morning or early
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler again today with highs in
the low teens northeast to the low 20s from the st. Croix river
valley eastward. Clouds return from the north overnight and Sunday
morning associated with another cool front and shortwave trough
moving into the region. A few flurries or light snow showers are
possible along the international border Sunday with dry conditions
expected elsewhere. Lows tonight will dip into the single digits
across the northland. Boundary layer mixing will keep winds
elevated overnight and limit radiational cooling. Should winds
become calm, even for an hour or two, temperatures may plummet
well below zero. Highs on Sunday will tick slightly warmer with
readings in the middle teens northeast to the middle and upper 20s
south.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 348 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
the northland will start out with temperatures well below normal
then moderate through the week. There will be a couple
opportunities for snow, mainly Sunday night into Monday morning
and again Tuesday into Tuesday night with a mostly dry period then
into Thursday night. Chances for more precipitation arrive late
week. The upper pattern will feature a ridge along the west coast
Sunday which will move into the central CONUS canada Wednesday
into Thursday passing east late week as a trough arrives.

The models are in better agreement moving a clipper system
through the region Sunday night into Monday. The ECMWF finally
caught onto the other models with this feature as well. Light snow
will occur with this clipper, with accumulation from a dusting to
2 inches for most areas. However, there will be a lake
contribution as well affecting portions of the north shore, twin
ports, and parts of the south shore. Although the models are doing
a decent job depicting the low, there are differences in their
low level wind fields which will have a big impact on which areas
receive longer onshore winds and higher snowfall. A few inches of
snow will be possible in areas that can sustain a few hour period
of onshore wind during the time of the larger scale forcing from
the clipper. At this time, it appears the finland, silver bay, and
two harbors area and bayfield peninsula are most likely to see
higher snowfall amounts but that may change as refinement in the
track of the low will occur over the next 24-36 hours.

Snow showers will linger into Monday afternoon over northern
wisconsin but as larger scale forcing moves off and drier air
moves in, additional accumulation will be light. Highs Monday will
only be in the teens far north to mid twenties south.

Warm air advection will develop late Monday night into Tuesday
and this will aid in producing light snow, especially over the
northern half of the northland. Any accumulation is expected to be
light.

Mostly dry conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday night
with highs from the mid twenties to mid thirties Wednesday and mid
thirties to around forty Thursday.

An upper level trough will move over the region Friday along with
a surface low. The models are in general agreement having the
upper trough over the region but show significant differences with
how fast they move the it east and how they handle the surface
low. The ECMWF is much stronger versus a weaker and faster
gfs canadian. We just have chances for mixed precipitation for
now.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1130 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
the skies will continue to clear this afternoon with a return to
vfr conditions. Expect the west-northwest winds to become west-
southwest tonight. There will be lowering ceilings across far
northern minnesota late tonight and Sunday morning, with kinl and
possibly khib returning to MVFR with light snow.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 18 7 24 13 10 0 10 70
inl 15 6 18 3 10 10 10 30
brd 19 7 27 15 10 0 0 30
hyr 22 8 25 17 10 0 0 60
asx 22 9 26 17 30 0 10 70

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm cst Sunday
for lsz146-147.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am cst Sunday
for lsz145.

Update... Grochocinski
short term... Huyck
long term... Melde
aviation... Grochocinski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi69 min WNW 11 G 14 20°F 1031 hPa (-1.1)7°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi29 min NW 6 G 12 24°F 1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi76 minWNW 710.00 miFair25°F9°F50%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS11SW10S4S3S3S4S3CalmW4W4NW7NW7NW9NW9W8W13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.