Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:41PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 6:22 PM CST (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:08PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ146 Expires:201810032230;;193128 Fzus73 Kdlh 032159 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018 Lsz140>143-146-147-162-032230- 459 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Grand portage to grand marais mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... At 459 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 14 nm east of tofte safe harbor, to 7 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, moving east at 60 knots. Locations impacted include... Beaver bay, mouth of the cross river, raspberry island lighthouse, sand island, sugar loaf cove, tofte safe harbor, and tofte. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4693 9026 4695 9099 4724 9136 4758 9088 4772 9055 4779 9029 4784 8966
LSZ146


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 202331
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
531 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019

Update
Issued at 526 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
updating aviation section below for the 00z TAF update.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 241 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
the surface low was located over southern minnesota at 20z 2pm.

Trofs extended into northwest minnesota and northwest wisconsin,
while a ridge axis was found over western lake superior. Between
these features, a large swath of moderate to heavy snow was
occurring over the forecast area. The exception being along the
canadian border where drier air was eroding the snow. The snow will
moisten up the borderland before too long and snow will reach the
surface. The moderate to heavy snow was occurring in an area of
850mb frontogenesis and negative epvg. On visible satellite, this
area of snow was showing convective elements as upward vertical
motion (uvm) is maximized in the dendritic snow growth zone. The
surface low will gradually move east, as will the closed upper low
that is associated with it. As these features depart, will see the
snow diminish from southwest to northeast. Have lingered some pops
over the arrowhead as well as over the eastern third of the
wisconisn forecast area to account for any remnants of uvm tonight.

No changes to the headlines.

There is a small window for some additional light snow over the tip
of the arrowhead Thursday morning and have small pops through
15z 9am. No accumulation is expected. Elsewhere, upper level and
surface ridging will be moving into the region. Weak warm air
advection is forecast for the afternoon, mainly over the southern
half of the area. This should help push MAX temps into the middle to
upper 20s. However, the recent snow may keep those temps from
warming too much.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 241 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
more and more snow is in the forecast, as well a return of cold,
arctic air next week.

A large winter storm system is expected to move out into the central
us Friday through Sunday. This system will bring the northland two
waves of snow, with the second one having the potential for more
than the first.

A surface low will develop in the central southern high plains
Thursday night and Friday, most likely in southeast colorado. Its
inverted trough will extend north and east into the northern plains
and northern minnesota by Friday evening when the trough shifts east
with the low moving out into the central plains. The trough and
forcing from shortwaves lifting northeast into the upper midwest
amidst the upper-level jet stream will bring a wave of snow through
the northland Friday afternoon through Friday night. There is a good
chance of 2 to 4 inches of snow from central minnesota to north-
central and northeast minnesota, and which may need a winter weather
advisory when time gets closer. There could be 1 to 2 inches of snow
in far northwest wisconsin.

The inverted trough will remain over minnesota Saturday when the low
in central plains deepens and continues its trek towards the great
lakes. Warmer air will build into the northland. Surface
temperatures will increase to the lower 30s. The low pressure from
the trough, but without the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent
from passing shortwaves and the relatively warm temperatures aloft,
means there could be light precipitation in the form of either snow
or freezing drizzle rain through the day.

The strong storm system will lift out of the central plains into the
great lakes region Saturday night and Sunday. There is pretty good
model consensus the surface low will track from about northern
missouri to northern illinois, and then across southeast wisconsin
before entering the great lakes. This track could bring accumulating
snow of up to several inches as far as northwest wisconsin. The 12z
gfs has a track farther to the northwest, across eastern iowa,
southwest wisconsin, to just south of green bay. This track would
bring more snow to more of the northland, including the twin ports.

However, this is a quite an outlier run of the gfs. The GFS ensemble
track is close to the earlier discussed track of the european and
canadian model runs. For now, it appears there is good chance of 3
to 6 inches across much of northwest wisconsin.

Much colder, arctic air will blast into the northland Sunday in
response to the passing storm system. It will be a cloudy day with
northwest winds whipping to 10 to 20 mph, and possibly gusting as
high as 30 mph. High temperatures will return to well below normal
Monday, with highs only in the single digits to low teens. More snow
is possible Tuesday. The GFS and canadian indicate a surface low
will move into the central us into the great lakes region. This
could bring up to several inches of snow to the northland. Since the
european does not even have this system, not placing any bets on
snow yet.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 531 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
snowstorm moving across the region as of issuance time has brought
widespread ifr lifr conditions. These conditions to slowly improve
from south to north, with all the terminals returning to MVFR
ceilings withVFR visibilities and only a few lingering snow
showers by 08z tonight, if not earlier. The MVFR ceilings to
linger through the end of the TAF period. Some breaks toVFR
possible at some sites beginning around 17z, but will be somewhat
scattered in nature.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 13 27 13 28 100 0 10 30
inl 15 28 11 26 90 10 10 30
brd 8 25 8 27 70 0 20 60
hyr 16 28 10 32 90 0 10 10
asx 16 30 13 32 100 10 0 20

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm warning until midnight cst tonight for wiz001>004-
006>009.

Mn... Winter weather advisory until midnight cst tonight for
mnz010>012-018-019-025-026-033>035.

Winter storm warning until midnight cst tonight for mnz020-021-
036>038.

Ls... None.

Update... Le
short term... Gsf
long term... Grochocinski
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DISW3 - Devils Island, WI 21 mi83 min ENE 23 G 28 26°F 1006.1 hPa (-3.2)26°F
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 40 mi43 min NE 9.9 G 11 23°F 1002.7 hPa

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi30 minNE 92.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F21°F91%1004.3 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW8S6SW4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmN3NE4NE5NE5NE5NE8NE8NE10NE13NE13NE13NE11NE10NE9
1 day agoCalmS4W3W4SW3SW4SW5SW4SW3SW5SW5SW8SW5SW7SW6SW5SW9SW8W6--CalmSW9SW6S6
2 days agoNE8N6N7N6N7N7NE4N7N6N7N5N7N5N5N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.