Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cornucopia, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:47PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:47 AM CDT (05:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ146 Expires:201903271430;;416812 Fzus73 Kdlh 271356 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 856 Am Cdt Wed Mar 27 2019 Lsz143>146-162-271430- 856 Am Cdt Wed Mar 27 2019
.an area of Thunderstorms over the nearshore waters of western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 854 am cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots, small hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located near larsmont, or 16 nm northeast of duluth lift bridge channel, moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Larsmont and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4688 9193 4710 9153 4688 9132 4673 9180
LSZ146


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornucopia, WI
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location: 46.9, -91.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 230530
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1230 am cdt Thu may 23 2019

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 357 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
showers will end tonight as an area of low pressure moves east of
the northland with high pressure taking its place for tomorrow
before another shot of rain arrives late tomorrow night as the
pattern remains active.

Low pressure was located over eastern south dakota this afternoon
with a warm front lifting into east-central minnesota and
northwest wisconsin. This low will track across northeast
minnesota overnight and out over lake superior by sunrise Thursday
morning. This will keep showers possible across the northland into
this evening with showers ending from south to north during the
late evening and early morning hours. A few thunderstorms may be
possible late this afternoon and early evening across northwest
wisconsin with a couple hundred joules of CAPE being in the area.

Skies will remain mainly cloudy through the night with winds
becoming light despite the low moving through. Lows will cool into
the 40s.

A few showers may linger across northern areas on Thursday, but
dry conditions will be in place by the afternoon hours as high
pressure builds in. Despite the high, skies will remain partly to
mostly cloudy with areas closer to the international border seeing
the best chance of some Sun by late afternoon. Skies will continue
to clear in northern areas during the evening hours, but the high
will shift east across lake superior Thursday evening as another
area of low pressure moves into the central plains Thursday night
and lifts a warm front into iowa. Isentropic lift and warm air
advection over the front will lead to showers spreading across
minnesota for Thursday night into early Friday morning. This
activity will move into areas along and south of us2 in minnesota
and much of northwest wisconsin by daybreak Friday. Temperatures
will be warmer despite the clouds Thursday with highs in the
middle 50s to middle 60s with lows in the 40s.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 357 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
models are in very good agreement aloft and at the surface with the
handling of the potent upper low and its associated surface low. The
upper low moves through north dakota Friday, while the surface low
moves from eastern montana to eastern north dakota. Rain will spread
across the forecast area from south to north, with some
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon. The upper low moves into
northern canada Friday night before opening into a long wave trof.

The surface low moves over northwest minnesota into northwest
ontario. The showers and thunderstorms will continue in the evening,
ending from south to north. Some showers will occur over the
northern half of the region as a secondary weak cold front moves
into this area. The showers will diminish Saturday morning as the
cold front weakens and lifts north into canada. In the afternoon,
high pressure moves over the region.

Model differences show up Saturday night with the handling of a
short wave trof moving quickly through the area, and its surface low
location QPF signal. The canadian has the most furthest south qpf
into the northern forecast area, the GFS touches the international
border, while the ECMWF is farther north into ontario. Used a blend
which acknowledges the canadian's more southern solution. The model
differences grow in magnitude Sunday with regards to the
strength depth of an upper level trof dropping south through south
central canada. The GFS is the strongest and has the most QPF over
the area, the canadian is weaker mainly dry until late afternoon,
and the ECMWF is very weak and completely dry. A blend was used a
result. The model discrepancies persist through Sunday night with
the upper level and surface features. The rain chances increase
Monday with a surface low moving toward the western great lakes. The
low center moves over northwest wisconsin Monday night with the
highest rain chances. Rain chances lower on Tuesday as the surface
low departs and high pressure begins to build behind it.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1230 am cdt Thu may 23 2019
ifr to lifr ceilings and visibilities will persist through early
Thursday morning with conditions gradually improving toVFR late
Thursday afternoon as ceilings lift and cloud cover becomes more
broken in coverage. Winds this morning will be variable in direction
and generally less than 10 knots, then become northwesterly at 10 to
12 knots with gusts as strong as 20 knots through the day Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 1000 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
northeast winds and associated winds will continue to diminish
this evening and the small craft advisory in effect for parts of
the western lake superior nearshore waters should be good to
expire on time at midnight. Northwest winds 10 to 12 knots on
Thursday, light and variable Thursday night, then increasing
easterly winds again on Friday as showers and some thunderstorms
move across parts of western lake superior. At this point winds
and waves look to stay below small craft advisory criteria, but a
short duration advisory is possible for parts of the nearshore.

Best time for thunderstorms will be late afternoon into the early
evening Friday, but storms are not expected to be severe.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 41 57 41 53 60 10 30 70
inl 42 62 41 55 90 20 10 70
brd 47 59 48 65 50 10 60 70
hyr 46 60 45 63 40 10 40 70
asx 44 60 41 57 50 10 30 60

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Bjh
long term... Gsf
aviation... Melde jjm
marine... Jjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John F Kennedy Memorial Airport, WI25 mi54 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F46°F75%1006 hPa

Wind History from ASX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13E14NE12NE10NE10E7E12
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1 day agoCalmCalmW3SW3S3CalmCalmE3N3E4N11N11NE14
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2 days agoCalmW7SW6W4SW3SW3W4NW5N5N8NE7NE11
G17
E9SW6CalmCalm5NE4NE4E4E4CalmS5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.