Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM   Moonset 12:24 PM

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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt - .
for the following areas - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near - . Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout - .possible hail - .0.00in wind - .40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 022030 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Continue to ride the rain chance rollercoaster with waves of precipitation moving through today, Friday evening into Saturday, and again Monday into Tuesday.

- Normal to above normal temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

- Some severe weather possible with the Monday-Tuesday chance of precipitation.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Yet another round of rain is moving through the area this afternoon, with areas of mostly stratiform rain showers across the Northland.
Behind the initial push of rain, lower clouds and light rain/drizzle have been observed. Expect at least light rain to stick around through the afternoon and early evening hours, with areas of moderate rainfall mixing in a times. This will all slowly propagate north, slowly clearly from south to north into Friday morning. As this precipitation moves out, some fog could build overnight on both land and lake.

Tomorrow, expecting a fairly dry and warm day for much of the Northland. The one exception may be along portions of the International Border, where some scattered light rain showers may persist through early to mid afternoon and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s. Elsewhere, expecting temperatures in the 60s, possibly near 70 in NW WI. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest tomorrow afternoon with efficient mixing up to around 850mb. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible, the strongest along the Iron Range and into the MN Arrowhead. Into the later after noon and evening, our next round of rain starts to creep in, along a baroclinic zone and strong upper level jet. Deterministic guidance continues to paint this as a SW to NE oriented band of rainfall that will develop up to the northeast, and then push across eastward, brining another 0.10-0.25" of rain for much of the area.

A brief moment of ridging and high pressure (remember what that is?!) builds in Sunday, with sunshine and warm temperatures expected. This will be one of the longer periods of no rainfall that we've seen in the last 10 days. Clear skies continue into Monday morning, but starts to fill back in through the day, as a deep upper level trough swings across the Plains. Timing is a little uncertain on the arrival of this system to our area, and I would not be surprised to see the arrival time slow down as we get closer. Regardless, into Tuesday, this system is expected to spin up and deepen further, bringing a potent shot of rainfall and the potential for some severe weather to the area, and then additional rainfall in the occluded quadrant of the storm into mid week. Ensemble mean QPF is around 075- 1" of rain, but there are some members that suggest locally heavy rainfall could be possible. Will have to keep an eye on not only the severe threat, but the potential for some local flash flooding, especially considering our newly moistened landscape.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A broad area of low pressure with two low pressure centers, one over western North Dakota and another over eastern Iowa, will bring light rain, reduced visibility, and lower ceilings to the terminals this afternoon through Friday morning. While 1730Z regional WSR-88D mosaic represents a precipitation-free area over west-central Minnesota, surface observations indicate drizzle and light precipitation with fog, mist, and reduced visibility. Areas of heavier precipitation over northeast MN and northwest WI produced pockets of MVFR visibility and a few IFR ceilings. Think the trend toward lower flight categories will overspread the terminals this afternoon and evening. Look for LIFR conditions to develop at DLH, HIB, and HYR tonight. LLWS will be a concern at BRD and INL overnight as a low-level jet develops to the south and east of the Dakotas low as it moves over northwest Minnesota into northwest Ontario. LLWS is possible at HIB, although most guidance has that terminal situated between two stronger axes of winds aloft. As the low pressure systems push northeast of the region Friday morning, expect flight categories to improve.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Northeast winds continue to strengthen yet this afternoon and evening, brining elevated wave heights to Western Lake Superior, especially the head of the lake. Northeast winds should back off overnight. Friday, expect winds to turn southwesterly and become strong up to 25 knots through the day. Due to warmer temperatures on land, expecting the strongest winds further up in the atmosphere to not make it to the surface of the lake, but they may be sampled by larger ships measuring wind further up.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142>146.

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