Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 2:42 PM   Moonset 2:23 AM

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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt - .
for the following areas - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near - . Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout - .possible hail - .0.00in wind - .40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 180615 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 115 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and some storms through the rest of today

- Marginal Risk for severe storms on Saturday with large hail up to quarter size and gusty winds being the biggest concern

- Quick dry spell before our active weather pattern returns next week with multiple shots for rain

DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Short Term:

As of early afternoon, some weak reflectivity returns can be seen on radar across the Minnesota Arrowhead. This is tied to a weak vorticity maxima swinging through the region which is causing some weak ascent ahead of it. This has led to showers and drizzle in areas close to the Canadian Border. This should continue to push northward and out of the area in the next few hours. Following this, clear skies should be present with highs topping off in the mid to upper 70s across much of the region.
Areas closer to the lake will stick in the 50s and 60s due to the presence of a lake breeze slowly moving inland. Through this afternoon and evening, there is a low end chance (30-40%) of some showers and storms refiring across our CWA Some of these showers could be a bit stronger than the ones we saw this morning with some lightning possible and stronger gusts at times. Some scattered showers will persist overnight as we get strong isentropic advection from the south.

Mid-Range: Our eyes turn to tomorrow and the threat of storms across our CWA as a cold front sweeps through the area. As it stands right now, the SPC has put the eastern half of our CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather tomorrow. The main threats would be large hail up to quarter size and gusty winds up to 60mph within the stronger convection. A trough swinging through the Canadian Prairies tonight will reach our area late Saturday Afternoon. It’ll induce cyclogenesis of a surface cyclone that’ll advect moisture into the area pushing dewpoints into the upper 50s and even lower 60s by mid afternoon. The result of these two things is anywhere from 500-1500 joules of MUCAPE to form by afternoon with 40-50kts of Bulk Shear in our vicinity.
This will lead to organized convection forming in the early afternoon near the I-35 Corridor before overspreading further east through the rest of the evening. Following the cold front, Sunday should be mostly dry with high topping off in the low to mid 70s with a light westerly wind to top it off.

Extended Range: The quick dry spell will quickly end as we begin the workweek with a quick moving shortwave moving through the Northern Plains on Monday. While nothing too substantial is expected out of it, we could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA during the daytime on Monday. As that moves out of the region Monday afternoon, a more notable and impactful system will ride into the Northern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.
While we won’t see many convective storms being north of the surface low, we will mainly see a prolonged period of rain. The rain which could be heavy at times will lead to QPF totals in excess of 0.5-1.5” in a 24 hour time frame. We should see quieter conditions arrive following this storm to close out the work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Scattered showers and storms are moving across the terminals overnight and again on Saturday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible the next few hours for KHYR and also for KINL...then progressing from west to east to also affect KBRD, KHIB and KDLH through 14z. Strong southerly winds aloft will produce LLWS overnight, dissipating by 14z Saturday morning. New showers and storm development is expected for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin after 16z, then quickly moving off to the east by 21z. After 21z, all terminals should be VFR, with winds decreasing to less than 10kts.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Issued a 6-hour Small Craft Advisory from Duluth to Sand Island as winds have gusted to around 25 kt at Port Wing the past couple observations. Winds are expected to lessen gradually this evening, but some higher waves up to 4 ft could linger.
Otherwise, northeast winds lessen tonight, then gradually shift to southwest on Saturday as a cold front passes through. Some stronger wind gusts approaching 20-25 kt may be possible around the head of the lake Saturday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight (30% chance), then some strong to low- end severe storms are possible through Saturday afternoon (50-70% chance of storms and 5-10% chance for strong to severe storms capable of producing strong winds to 50 kt and large hail up to quarter size).

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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