Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 4:04 PM   Moonset 2:57 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 190926 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 526 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A disturbance will exit across the Maritimes today. High pressure will ridge across the region today through early week, then build south of the area through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An upper level disturbance will exit across the Maritimes this morning. At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge back across the region. Will have scattered/numerous showers this morning along the Downeast coast and across Washington county. Could also have patchy fog across the region early this morning. Otherwise, expect cloudy/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area today. Surface ridging persists tonight, along with a building upper ridge. Expect mostly/partly cloudy skies early tonight, with partly cloudy skies overnight.
High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s north, to the lower to mid 60s interior Downeast with upper 50s to around 60 along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50 north, with mid to upper 40s Downeast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper level ridge remains across the area on Monday with surface high extending from the Canadian Maritimes through the mid atlantic. A weak cold front approaches the region from Quebec but remains west of the state. A surge of warmer air around the high allows temperatures across northern areas to climb into the mid to upper 70s but more of an onshore flow keeps highs for the Bangor region and Downeast cooler. Dry weather is expected on Monday but expect cumulus development to give way to a mix of sun and clouds by afternoon. With weak short wave energy crossing the crown of Maine later afternoon, couldn't totally rule of an isolated late afternoon shower across the far north and St. John Valley. Monday night a boundary remains situated just to our north. Thinking is it remains mainly dry Monday night with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected. The flow aloft on Tuesday becomes more zonal as the upper level ridge flattens out. Surface high remains to our south to the east of the mid atlantic. The 00z operational models are painting different pictures for the Tuesday forecast, owing to how they handle remnant convective issues that occur in the Great Lakes region later Monday night. The GFS and NAM are the more pessimistic solutions and bring this into our region during Tuesday afternoon, versus the EC and Canadian which are drier solutions. Followed NBM (National Model Blend) which yields chance showers with afternoon highs nearing 80 degrees most areas away from the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tuesday night should be a fair and mild night with lows only in the mid to upper 50s, as the upper ridging once again builds in. Wednesday looks like the warmest day of the week with increasing humidity as surface high drifts east of the mid atlantic with west to southwest flow in place. The models indicate 925MB temperatures climb to between 21C to 24C, which should yield afternoon highs in the mid 80s for some inland locations. Along with the warm temperatures and increasing low level moisture will come increasing instability and the chance of an afternoon shower and thunderstorm. A warm and bit more muggy night can be expected Wednesday night, with overnight lows not expected to fall much lower than the 60 degree mark in many areas. Thursday is shaping up as a potentially active day as a strong cold front approaches from the west. With the warm and humid air mass in place ahead of the front, there is the possibility of our first widespread thunderstorms of the spring season. Of course, this is several days out and subject to change, based on the timing of the front etc, but something to keep an eye on. Looks like much cooler weather can be expected behind the front for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from VFR to IFR, this morning. VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers along the Downeast coast and Washington county this morning.
Patchy fog early this morning. VFR tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots today through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Mon through Tue...VFR. Chance showers Tue. S to SW wind.

Tue night...VFR Aroostook terminals. MVFR or lower possible KBGR/KBHB in late night patchy fog.

Wed...VFR, except MVFR or lower KBGR/KBHB in possible early morning patchy fog. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms north.

Thu...VFR/MVFR. Chance thunderstorms.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. However, seas could approach small craft advisory levels on the western waters today. Numerous to scattered showers this morning. Patchy fog this morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA levels. Fog could become an issues on the waters by midweek.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Newcastle
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Sun -- 03:54 AM ADT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:00 AM ADT     0.95 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM ADT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:32 AM ADT     0.24 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:23 PM ADT     0.93 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:00 PM ADT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:56 PM ADT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:19 PM ADT     0.25 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick, Tide feet

Newcastle
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:54 AM ADT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:58 AM ADT     1.45 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM ADT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:12 AM ADT     0.70 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM ADT     1.22 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:00 PM ADT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:56 PM ADT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:47 PM ADT     0.81 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newcastle, Miramichi River, New Brunswick (2), Tide feet

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Caribou, ME,