Thursday, March23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Covington Hamlet, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:12PM Thursday March 23, 2017 10:13 PM EDT (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:28AMMoonset 2:18PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Covington Hamlet, NY
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location: 46.91, -74.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 240002
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
802 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds and the threat
of light snows by tomorrow morning as a warm front pushes into
the area. Mixed precipitation or rain will be likely on and off
into the coming weekend as this front waffles south and north
across the region. Temperatures will moderate back toward more
seasonal late march values through the period.

Near term /through Friday night/
As of 802 pm edt Thursday... Mostly clear skies with light winds
will see high clouds spreading from the west throughout
tonight.Temperatures will bottom out early given the clear skies
(5 to 15 above in the mountains/teens to lower 20s valleys) but
will trend steady or slowly rise overnight as clouds arrive and
light southerly return flow develops. An approaching warm
frontal system will be approaching from the south and west
tonight and the leading edge of its precipitation shield will
begin to encroach into our far western counties toward sunrise
Friday in the form of light snows.

A messy day then on tap for Friday as the warm front marches
into the region under strengthening southerly flow and
widespread mixed precipitation. Some channeling effects likely
in the champlain valley where gusts to near 30 mph look
plausible at this point. Boundary layer to mid level thermal
profiles will be critical in determining eventual p-type as
widespread light snows slowly transition to a mix of snow/sleet
and eventual rain from the champlain valley west. P-type should
hold more in the form of snow and/or a mix of snow/sleet across
much of east central and northeastern vt where mid level warming
will be less and colder near surface layers will be harder to
scour out. Mixed precipitation top down methodology using a
variety of model output continues to support the idea of little
in the way of freezing rain with this feature, which appears
reasonable seeing the primary mid-level warm layer generally
runs in the 0-3c range through 21z. Experience would suggest
however at least some patchy -fzra may occur here and there
through the morning hours. Front end snow totals should
generally run in the 0.5 to 2 inch range, with slightly higher
totals from 1.5 to 4 inches likely across east central and
northeastern vt. Given the front end light snows will inhibit
any pavement icing and only low probabilities of a few
hundredths of ice accumulation are suggested (if any) will hold
off on issuing any advisories at this point. Late day high
temperatures should range from the lower to mid 30s east and
north, and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.

By Friday night widespread light rains (or mixed precipitation
north and east) will gradually wane over time as best warm
thermal advection lessens. Later at night models continue to
suggest building high pressure to our north will push the front
back southward into the area with flow transitioning to a light
northerly regime by daybreak Saturday. This will tend to shunt
the precipitation shield southward as well as coverage/intensity
lessens. Some lingering light rains/mixed precipitation/light
snows will remain possible though settle generally into our
southern counties by morning. Lows a bit tricky though with
expected abundance of clouds upper 20s to lower 30s looks
reasonable for most spots.

Short term /Saturday through Saturday night/
As of 338 pm edt Thursday... .For Saturday and Saturday night
frontal boundary will remain draped across our forecast area.

This means that threat for mixed precipitation will continue
through the short term period. Large area of high pressure will
push south out of canada on Saturday and push frontal boundary
south of our region. Precipitation will also push south of the
area and we will be in the cold sector on the north side of the
front. During the second half of Saturday night frontal boundary
lifts back up over the area and will be situated across
northern new york and vermont. Despite odd frontal boundary
drifting south of the area then back across our area the
temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be very near to
seasonal normals. We will have a little bit of rain across our
southern zones on Saturday, then some mixed precipitation as the
boundary lifts back northward Saturday night with some snow,
sleet, and freezing rain.

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/
As of 346 pm edt Thursday... Aforementioned frontal boundary
remains over northern new york from Sunday through Monday. More
mixed precipitation is expected as thermal boundary is stacked
up right over us. Upper level low pressure system and strong
upper level shortwave cross the region later Sunday into Sunday
night, and still pushing eastward across our CWA on Monday.

Precipitation will finally end Monday night. But, will only be a
short break in the action with another low pressure system
approaching for Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately with
freezing lines staying very close to our forecast area, we will
mostly have rain with these systems but need to also continue to
monitor potential for trouble with mixed precipitation as well,
freezing rain and sleet. Tough to find a dry period over the
next week with very active weather and borderline temperatures
causing lots of forecasting challenges.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
Through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail through 12z before
an approaching warm front brings snow to the north country. After
12z Friday, snow will spread eastward reaching kmss/kslk around
12z... The champlain valley around 14z and kmpv shortly after.

Snow will likely bring ifr/MVFR conditions before transitioning
to a snow/sleet/rain mix around 15-17z over northern ny, 16z-18z
in the champlain valley and at kmpv. Expect warming trend to
continue with wintry mix changing to rain during the afternoon.

Winds trending southerly 5 to 15 knots, most pronounced at
kbtv/kpbg where valley channeling effects may push gusts near 25

Outlook 00z Saturday through Tuesday...

00z Saturday through 18z Saturday... MVFR/ifr conditions expected
to improve as precipitation settles southward and lessening in
coverage by Saturday afternoon affecting mainly southern
terminals at that point. Highest threat of mix to occur at
northern terminals.

18z Saturday through 12z Sunday... Trending mainlyVFR
/precipitation-free as canadian high pressure noses briefly
southward into the area.

12z Sunday through 12z Tuesday... Widespread mixed precipitation
and/or rain return to the region.

12z Tuesday onward... Light and spotty mixed precipitation
transitions toward a period of steadier rains by Wednesday.

Btv watches/warnings/advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg/kgm
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
aviation... Kgm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY143 mi21 minSSW 810.00 miFair29°F15°F56%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3SW4NW6CalmSW3W4W6SW4SW6SW6W7SW6----------W12W9SW8SW8SW7SW9SW8
1 day agoNW14
2 days agoSW9SW10SW9SW7SW10SW7SW6SW5SW5W3SW3----------W5W6----S4E3SE4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.