Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Covington Hamlet, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:21PM Saturday November 17, 2018 11:53 AM EST (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Covington Hamlet, NY
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location: 46.91, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 171509
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1009 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
An upper level shortwave will continue to track across the
region today bringing isolated to scattered light mountain snow
showers as a cold front sags south out of canada. Quiet weather
returns along with below normal temperatures through the
thanksgiving holiday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 1009 am est Saturday... Forecast remains in decent shape
as of late morning. Did massage pops a bit higher across
northern counties this afternoon to acct for slightly more
robust low level omega signatures along the frontal boundary
this afternoon. This appears reasonable per latest cam output
and current canadian radar returns. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...

after a busy couple of days we're trending much less active for
the weekend. An upper level trough will swing across the region
today sagging a shallow surface front through the north country
this afternoon. Scatted mountain snow showers will be prevalent
for much of the day before tapering off this evening. Its not
out of the question that we see some snow squalls develop with
that cold front as the thermal gradient is pretty sharp. Model
soundings show fairly steep lapse rates and decent instability
so its possible some of the showers could develop into brief
heavy snow squalls with significant reduction in visibilities.

Expect plenty of mid and low level clouds through the day today
with some modestly gusty winds in northern new york. High
pressure will build in across new england and we'll see highs
only in the mid 30s today and rather chilly Sunday behind the
cold front. Expect highs only in the mid to upper 20s. Lows this
evening should fall to the teens to near 20 in the valleys.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 401 am est Saturday... Relatively quiet weather with
continued below normal temperatures for the short-term period. A
modest 700-500mb positive tilt trough passes thru the SRN tier
of new york into central new england during Sunday night. This
system may spread some light stratiform snowfall northward into
s-central vt, but mainly looking at mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions across the SRN half of the cwa, with little or no
precipitation expected. Limited pops to near 20%. Overnight lows
will range from mid-20s for rutland windsor counties, to the
upper teens and lower 20s across the north.

Generally dry Monday Monday night, though weakly cyclonic
850-700mb flow may generate a few snow showers associated with
moisture advection from the ERN great lakes, especially across
nrn ny. Temperatures are expected to reach the low-mid 30s on
Monday, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s for Monday
night under variably cloudy skies.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 401 am est Saturday... Amplification of upper ridge across
the pacific NW into british columbia will result in an active
northern branch jet stream and a NW flow pattern across south-
central canada into the nern CONUS thru the long-term forecast
period. Moisture will be limited with these continental
systems embedded shortwave troughs, but anticipate periods of
snow showers during the day Tuesday, and again on
Wednesday Wednesday evening. The Wednesday system - in both the
00z GFS and ECMWF - is associated with a more well-defined
arctic boundary and digging upper level trough. May see some
more widespread snow showers or possible snow squalls along the
arctic front as it passes from west-to-east across NRN ny and
vt... Likely Wednesday aftn eve based on latest indications.

Overall pattern will keep daytime temperatures well below
normal, with highs mainly in the upper 20s for Tuesday and
Wednesday, and potentially only in the low-mid 20s for
thanksgiving day, with a chance of flurries and wind chill
readings in the single digits above zero. In fact, the 00z
ecmwf-mos for btv indicates a high of just 20f for thanksgiving
day (22f on the gfs-mos). High pressure brings lighter winds and
continued cold for Thursday night into Friday, though temps
should moderate slightly into the upr 20s to near 30f on Friday.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 12z Sunday... Expect generally MVFR to lowVFR improving
toVFR at all sites this morning. The exception is at slk where
1000 foot ceilings will hold on through the morning gradually
lifting to 2000-2500 feet. Expect prevailingVFR visibilities
with perhaps some brief MVFR or ifr in mountain snow showers.

Winds will generally be 5-10 knots out of the west with
occasional gusts to 20kts over northern new york through the taf
period. Scattered snow showers are possible along the
international border in the afternoon today as a surface front
pushes south. Some snow squalls may develop near the northern
taf sites which could produce short windows of lifr.

Outlook...

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shsn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shsn.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Tuesday night:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Deal
near term... Jmg deal
short term... Banacos
long term... Banacos
aviation... Deal


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY143 mi60 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast39°F30°F73%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW8SW10W9SW10SW10SW8SW8SW9SW9SW7SW8SW6SW8SW9W11
1 day agoE4NE8E8E8NE9E9E10E8E6E8NE8E6E5N6NE8E6NE5NE6E6NE9E8E7E7NE10
2 days agoW12W13W17
G23
NW13W16W10NW8NW7NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmNE4SE3SE5E5E7E4

Tide / Current Tables for Louiseville, Quebec
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Louiseville
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Sat -- 12:23 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:43 AM EST     0.46 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:44 AM EST     0.49 meters High Tide
Sat -- 02:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:13 PM EST     0.46 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 11:33 PM EST     0.48 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Sat -- 12:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:49 AM EST     0.55 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:56 AM EST     0.56 meters High Tide
Sat -- 02:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:00 PM EST     0.54 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 11:49 PM EST     0.55 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.