Wednesday, June28, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Massena, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:55PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 10:07 PM EDT (02:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Massena, NY
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location: 46.91, -75.56     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 290207
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1007 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Dry conditions overnight will be short lived as a warm front
approaches from the southwest bringing rain chances back to the
forecast Thursday. A wet pattern will continue into the weekend.

Near term until 7 am Thursday morning
As of 1001 pm edt Wednesday... Showers are finally diminishing
now following the 841 pm sunset. Will see a brief decrease in
cloud cover, with clouds rapidly increasing towards morning from
the west as strong overrunning develops. Rain chances increase
around daybreak from west to east.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Short term 7 am Thursday morning through Friday night
As of 345 pm edt Wednesday... Challenging forecast for the
Thursday Friday timeframe. Overall changes are minimal during
this period. Models in good agreement as to the overall pattern
with some differences in timing and qpf.

Thursday, overrunning showers will be the main story with
limited instability. Deep layer moisture returning with the
solid warm advection will lead to increasing precipitation
efficiency with activity during the day and into Thursday
evening. Have introduced some heavy rainfall wording for the
afternoon and evening hours Thursday.

By Friday morning the front will be near the international border
lifting northward leaving the area solidly in the warm sector
with pwat numbers in excess of 1.50". Some instability will be
available Friday but deep layer shear is meager so organized
convection not expected at this point, but the heavy rainfall
threat continues. Periods of showers and storms continue with a
relative minimum Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 427 pm edt Wednesday... A wet weekend remains in store for
the north country as a slow moving cold front will bring highly
anomalous precipitable water with the system. There will be
plenty of instability across the region and should be the focus
of showers and thunderstorms. With the high pwats and the idea
of 1-2" of rainfall anticipated I went ahead and added enhanced
wording to the forecast to mention locally heavy rainfall

The guidance is a bit spread with where and when the showers
move in as the GFS shows some shortwave ridging which would keep
us dry in the morning Saturday however the NAM ec both bring in
storms earlier. Either way the idea of locally heavy rain with
some some scattered thunderstorms looks increasingly likely. The
biggest problem with this is that the antecedent conditions
have been wet. Current stream flow analysis shows all of the
central and northern basins above normal with the winooski basin
well above normal. At some point there's likely to be a break
point in which we see flash flooding with the waves of rain
anticipated through Sunday. I dont have the confidence in saying
where or when at the moment so we held off on any idea of a
flash flood watch, but confidence is increasing that we'll be
watching hydro issues this weekend.

Behind the front, quieter conditions are forecast for Monday
and the july 4th holiday as high pressure returns to the region.

Seasonal temperatures in the 70s 80s are likely, as well as
more comfortable humidity.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Through 00z Thursday... OverallVFR conditions through overnight
hours with conditions deteriorating as rain showers begin to
move into the north country Thursday morning. The next round of
showers will move into the western stations after 12z bringing
borderline periods ofVFR MVFR conditions so I opted to start
with vcsh and then began prevailing shra at all sites by 15-18z
and extending to the northern champlain valley after 15z. By 18z
i expanded to +shra as the rainfall will be heavy at times. I
kept out any vsby restrictions at the moment due to lack of
confidence in timing for individual showers.

Winds should be fairly light through the period generally out
of the south 5-10 kts.


Thursday night:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Occasional ra... Slight chance tsra.

Friday:VFR. Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Friday night:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Saturday:VFR MVFR. Occasional shra... Occasional tsra.

Saturday night:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Sunday:VFR. Chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Chance shra.

Very wet period expected the next several days. Streamflow
values are above or much above normal as of this afternoon.

There is little if any storage and much that falls in the next
day or two will go straight to runoff. Additional average
rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5" are expected through Saturday.

Right now feel that any potential flooding Thursday Friday will
be limited in areal coverage, potentially setting the stage for
flooding Saturday by leaving saturated antecedent soil
conditions. Stay tuned...

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Manning
near term... Deal neiles manning
short term... Manning
long term... Deal
aviation... Deal
hydrology... Manning

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY141 mi75 minSSE 410.00 miLight Rain62°F60°F93%1016 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
1 day agoCalmSW4S6S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW6S7SW5SW5W8SW8SW6S6SW8W9
2 days agoS6SW8SW4W3SW6SW5SW6SW5SW7W6--CalmW5W3W7W645SW5SW4S5SW4S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.