Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Massena, NY
May 2, 2024 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM Moonset 12:18 PM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 021449 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1049 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered to numerous showers, with a few possible thunderstorms, will continue through the day today over northern areas. High pressure will return for Friday and bring drier weather and some breaks in the sun. Rain showers enter northern New York on Saturday and the entire region for Sunday. Drier weather looks to start next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1049 AM EDT Thursday... Some adjustments to temperatures, PoPs, and sky cover were made this morning, but overall forecast is in good shape. Interesting weather scenario in place with a weak cold front bisecting our region. Based on surface pressure analysis, the front is currently stretches from the far northern Champlain Valley southwestward through the eastern Adirondacks. Ahead of the front there is a sliver of surface- based CAPE of up to 100 J/kg with effective shear of around 20 knots, and with further daytime heating values could approach 500 J/kg early this afternoon in eastern Vermont. As such, some showers could grow tall enough to produce thunder but no strong thunderstorms are expected. These showers will move southeastward through mainly central and eastern Vermont this afternoon. Behind the front there will be a lot of cloud cover and cooler conditions streaming southward, associated with an upper level low spinning to our north.
Previous Discussion...
A warm front is passing through the North Country tonight and it is bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms from an area of elevated instability. These storms will continue for much of the night before dissipating by mid- morning as the elevated instability diminishes. Some showers will then develop during the day across northern areas as a shortwave trough builds into the region and an associated cold pool steepens lapse rates. Diurnal heating will help create some surface based instability, particularly over Northeast Vermont, and there is the possibility that it is strong enough for a couple thunderstorms to develop. Small hail and graupel cannot be ruled out in these storms due to the cold air aloft. There is a strong QPF gradient across the region with southern areas only expected to see a few hundreths of an inch of rain while the Northeast Kingdom should see up to around a half-inch. Across the showery northern areas, temperatures will only reach the lower 60s. However, temperatures will reach the upper 60s and low 70s across southern Vermont where it will be drier and where some breaks in the clouds are possible.
The shortwave passes to the east overnight and the shower chances quickly end as lapse rates lower and diurnal heating ends. Abundant low-level moisture and light winds could cause fog formation overnight, particularly if some breaks form in the clouds.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s across the region. An upper level ridge builds into the region on Friday and it will bring drier and warmer weather. 925 mb temperatures look to rise to between 9-14 degrees but easterly flow will keep the warmest temperatures, up to 20 celsius, just to the southwest over Central New York. Highs should therefore range in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will depend a bit on how quickly the low clouds from Thursday's shortwave scour out and how quickly high clouds build in from the west. It looks like there should at least be some filtered sunshine during the day for most areas.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...Longwave ridge axis shifts eastward Friday night with southerly flow increasing. Expect increasing cloud cover and mild overnight temperatures in the mid/upper 40s and low 50s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...The pattern evolution will support deeper moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday as upper level ridge axis amplifies downstream of the North Country. A weak trough moving out of the lower mid west will help pull Gulf moisture northward while a stronger trough with upper level support swings through the Great Lakes region. These features will likely begin to phase supporting PWATs in excess of 1" late Saturday into Sunday as the surface trough moves through the region. Expect shower chances to begin increasing Saturday with rain/rain showers Saturday night and Sunday. While conditions will be wet, best forcing will likely be displaced northward into Canada as the low rides up the ridge, so excessive rainfall/flooding is not anticipated.
Active pattern continues with ridging returning Monday into Tuesday.
A lack of cold air replacement resulting from the nature of the continental airmass from lower/central US Plains will keep temperatures running warmer that seasonal averages. Ensembles favor a pattern that would support highs in the lower/mid 70s. We'll be keeping an eye on the mid-week system that may move into the North Country on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and a chance at decent forcing could supply ingredients for more robust thunderstorms. It will all depend on timing which is vague this far out. Should a front approach during max heating Wednesday, a few stronger storms would be possible. However, it's just as likely at this point that frontal passage could be offset outside of peak heating which would limit convection. Ensembles keep a progressive pattern beyond Wednesday supporting quick moving ridge/troughs.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12Z Friday... Any lingering thunderstorms will exit the region by 13Z. Scattered showers will return later in the morning and continue through the afternoon, and an embedded thunderstorm is possible at EFK. The showers and thunderstorm threat will end this evening. There is currently a mix of flight categories at the terminals but there should be slight improvement today where at least every terminal reaches MVFR. However, low clouds will return tonight and there is a possibility that ceilings at any terminal could fall to IFR. Any breaks in the low clouds could also lead to fog formation. However, confidence is not high on the forecast for tonight yet. Winds will be relatively light during this period and will generally switch to southwesterly. Winds shear should lower below LLWS criteria this morning as a low-level jet exits the region.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1049 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered to numerous showers, with a few possible thunderstorms, will continue through the day today over northern areas. High pressure will return for Friday and bring drier weather and some breaks in the sun. Rain showers enter northern New York on Saturday and the entire region for Sunday. Drier weather looks to start next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1049 AM EDT Thursday... Some adjustments to temperatures, PoPs, and sky cover were made this morning, but overall forecast is in good shape. Interesting weather scenario in place with a weak cold front bisecting our region. Based on surface pressure analysis, the front is currently stretches from the far northern Champlain Valley southwestward through the eastern Adirondacks. Ahead of the front there is a sliver of surface- based CAPE of up to 100 J/kg with effective shear of around 20 knots, and with further daytime heating values could approach 500 J/kg early this afternoon in eastern Vermont. As such, some showers could grow tall enough to produce thunder but no strong thunderstorms are expected. These showers will move southeastward through mainly central and eastern Vermont this afternoon. Behind the front there will be a lot of cloud cover and cooler conditions streaming southward, associated with an upper level low spinning to our north.
Previous Discussion...
A warm front is passing through the North Country tonight and it is bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms from an area of elevated instability. These storms will continue for much of the night before dissipating by mid- morning as the elevated instability diminishes. Some showers will then develop during the day across northern areas as a shortwave trough builds into the region and an associated cold pool steepens lapse rates. Diurnal heating will help create some surface based instability, particularly over Northeast Vermont, and there is the possibility that it is strong enough for a couple thunderstorms to develop. Small hail and graupel cannot be ruled out in these storms due to the cold air aloft. There is a strong QPF gradient across the region with southern areas only expected to see a few hundreths of an inch of rain while the Northeast Kingdom should see up to around a half-inch. Across the showery northern areas, temperatures will only reach the lower 60s. However, temperatures will reach the upper 60s and low 70s across southern Vermont where it will be drier and where some breaks in the clouds are possible.
The shortwave passes to the east overnight and the shower chances quickly end as lapse rates lower and diurnal heating ends. Abundant low-level moisture and light winds could cause fog formation overnight, particularly if some breaks form in the clouds.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s across the region. An upper level ridge builds into the region on Friday and it will bring drier and warmer weather. 925 mb temperatures look to rise to between 9-14 degrees but easterly flow will keep the warmest temperatures, up to 20 celsius, just to the southwest over Central New York. Highs should therefore range in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will depend a bit on how quickly the low clouds from Thursday's shortwave scour out and how quickly high clouds build in from the west. It looks like there should at least be some filtered sunshine during the day for most areas.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...Longwave ridge axis shifts eastward Friday night with southerly flow increasing. Expect increasing cloud cover and mild overnight temperatures in the mid/upper 40s and low 50s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...The pattern evolution will support deeper moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday as upper level ridge axis amplifies downstream of the North Country. A weak trough moving out of the lower mid west will help pull Gulf moisture northward while a stronger trough with upper level support swings through the Great Lakes region. These features will likely begin to phase supporting PWATs in excess of 1" late Saturday into Sunday as the surface trough moves through the region. Expect shower chances to begin increasing Saturday with rain/rain showers Saturday night and Sunday. While conditions will be wet, best forcing will likely be displaced northward into Canada as the low rides up the ridge, so excessive rainfall/flooding is not anticipated.
Active pattern continues with ridging returning Monday into Tuesday.
A lack of cold air replacement resulting from the nature of the continental airmass from lower/central US Plains will keep temperatures running warmer that seasonal averages. Ensembles favor a pattern that would support highs in the lower/mid 70s. We'll be keeping an eye on the mid-week system that may move into the North Country on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and a chance at decent forcing could supply ingredients for more robust thunderstorms. It will all depend on timing which is vague this far out. Should a front approach during max heating Wednesday, a few stronger storms would be possible. However, it's just as likely at this point that frontal passage could be offset outside of peak heating which would limit convection. Ensembles keep a progressive pattern beyond Wednesday supporting quick moving ridge/troughs.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12Z Friday... Any lingering thunderstorms will exit the region by 13Z. Scattered showers will return later in the morning and continue through the afternoon, and an embedded thunderstorm is possible at EFK. The showers and thunderstorm threat will end this evening. There is currently a mix of flight categories at the terminals but there should be slight improvement today where at least every terminal reaches MVFR. However, low clouds will return tonight and there is a possibility that ceilings at any terminal could fall to IFR. Any breaks in the low clouds could also lead to fog formation. However, confidence is not high on the forecast for tonight yet. Winds will be relatively light during this period and will generally switch to southwesterly. Winds shear should lower below LLWS criteria this morning as a low-level jet exits the region.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Airport Reports
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Burlington, VT,
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