Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Massena, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:34PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:06 PM EDT (01:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Massena, NY
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location: 46.91, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 222326
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
726 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
Quiet weather is on tap for tonight with high clouds remaining
entrenched across the region. This will help keep temperatures
warmer than last night with most places bottoming out in the mid
to upper 40s. Active weather returns on Thursday as strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon
and evening. Showers will continue through Thursday night into
Friday morning before dissipating following the passage of a
cold front. Dry weather is expected on Friday with another round
of showers expected on Saturday. The second half of the memorial
day weekend looks be great with highs in the 70 with clearing
skies.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 726 pm edt Wednesday... Going forecast is in great shape
for the overnight hours with the main idea being mid clouds
stream across the area through the first half of the night then
scatter out towards sunrise. Winds will be light with lows
mainly in the 40s.

Previous discussion After a sunny start to the day, cirrus
clouds have moved into much of the north country out ahead of
convection currently going on across the ohio river valley. This
should limit additional diurnal heating with highs across much of
the north country capping out in the lower to upper 60s. The clouds
cover will remain entrenched across the region which will help limit
radiational cooling as lows on drop into the mid to upper 40s.

Quiet weather is expected to continue through Thursday morning with
both mid-level and upper-level heights increasing. As this happens,
a developing a potent shortwave will take aim at the north country
with a deepening low level circulation and frontal boundary
developing just ahead of the shortwave. Throughout the day on
Thursday, temperatures will warm pretty quickly into the low to mid
70s under mostly cloudy skies with strong warm air advection in the
lowest levels. This will advect an elevated mixed layer into the
region Thursday morning which should help inhibit any shower
activity through the morning hours especially when coupled with the
anti-cyclonic flow aloft.

It doesn't look like we are going to see enough heating to mix out
the elevated mixed layer but with several rounds of forcing expected
through the afternoon and evening hours, storms are still expected
to develop. The first round will be around 21z across northern new
york when a pre-frontal trough moves through the region. At this
point, we will see the maximum instability of around 750-1000 j kg
of CAPE with 60 knots of bulk shear. This should help to develop
some discrete cells (possibly a supercell or two) right along the
axis of forcing. The 850 mb trough follows the pre-frontal trough by
2 hours with the surface front not expected to actually push through
until well after sunset. If the first round of convection does fire
as expected, the 850 mb trough and surface cold front should pass
through the region rather uneventfully. However, if the EML provides
to be a stronger than expected deterrent, convection will be delayed
until about 00z as further erosion of the low level inversion is
expected.

Nevertheless, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms does
exist for Thursday, especially over northern new york. If a cold
pool can get established and a linear MCS develops, models show
vectors between 60-70 knots which could cause very fast storm
motions that could yield widespread strong winds. Models aren't very
supportive of this at the moment but the threat does exist. The best
instability axis will be present across northern new york and should
be the focus for convection tomorrow. Equilibrium levels should be
fairly low (around 22,000 ft) which models prog to be about -25
degrees c. This should limit the potential for large hail with steep
low level lapse rates and dry air entrainment in the mid levels
favoring strong winds as storms collapse or if they evolve into an
mcs Thursday night.

Any showers and thunderstorms that develop should quickly move east
through the night on Thursday with widespread rainfall amounts a
third of an inch or less. As with all thunderstorms, the potential
for locally higher amounts exist but lower than favorable pwat's
should limit how much rainfall any location will receive. Following
the cold front, gusty northwest winds will develop Thursday night
with showers becoming more orographic with good upslope flow and
cooler temperatures aloft aiding in steepening the low and mid level
lapse rates.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 331 pm edt Wednesday... No real changes made from previous
forecast. Lingering upslope showers remain through the morning hours
Friday before diminishing towards afternoon. As low pressure pulls
off to the east, pressure gradient remains over the area so expect
gusty northwest winds turning north northeast during the daytime
hours with afternoon mixing bringing wind gusts between 20-25 knots.

High temperatures will be in mid to upper 60s under partly cloudy
skies. Lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50 with increasing
clouds. Friday night will be dry but our next system is approaching
quickly from the west for Saturday.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 331 pm edt Wednesday... The active pattern continues as high
pressure anchored across the southeast directs storm systems over
our area. Another front will approach the area during the day on
Saturday. Still some timing differences between the models but
consensus is good on strong moisture plume coming up from gulf of
mexico with pwat values across the area between 1.5-1.75". Cloud
depths are around 11,000 ft so expecting efficient rain produces,
especially given juicy pwats. The dynamics thermodynamics are not
overly impressive for a convective weather threat so have omitted
thunder from forecast given CAPE values less than 200 j kg and weak
shortwave energy. As front kicks through, another piece of vorticity
grazes the area. 925mb temperatures >14c on Sunday will see temps
climb into the mid 70s, with the potential for near 80 across some
valley locations. With daytime heating and falling heights aloft, a
few convective showers and rumbles of thunders may be possible, but
not expecting any strong or severe storms. After this, the active
pattern remains with a series of troughs rounding the ridge across
the southeastern us through much of next week. Therefore have
continued the idea of near normal temperatures and chances for
precipitation.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions will persist through the
majority of the next 24 hours with mid clouds streaming over the
area through 06z before scattering out towards sunrise. Clouds
will then thicken and lower mid-day into tomorrow afternoon as a
cold front and potential convection approach. Winds slacken
overnight to less than 4kts then strengthen from the southwest
with gusts up to 20 knots at most terminals by 18z.

Outlook...

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
shra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Memorial day:VFR. Chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Clay
near term... Clay lahiff
short term... Larocca
long term... Larocca
aviation... Lahiff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY141 mi73 minENE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F39°F41%1021 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W5NW5NW3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7E8E65Calm4N3S3S33E3E4E7E5
1 day agoW16
G24
W11W11
G20
W13W11W10W10W12
G20
W8
G17
W10W13NW15
G21
NW19
G28
W13
G26
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G27
NW13
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G29
N12
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G19
NW5W4
2 days agoNE16NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmSW10SW10SW7SW9SW9SW14
G19
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G35
SW12
G23
W24
G32
W19
G31
W14
G20
NW15
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.