Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 5:21AM||Sunset 8:34PM||Wednesday May 22, 2019 9:06 PM EDT (01:06 UTC)||Moonrise 11:23PM||Moonset 7:23AM||Illumination 84%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Massena, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbtv 222326|
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
726 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
Quiet weather is on tap for tonight with high clouds remaining
entrenched across the region. This will help keep temperatures
warmer than last night with most places bottoming out in the mid
to upper 40s. Active weather returns on Thursday as strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon
and evening. Showers will continue through Thursday night into
Friday morning before dissipating following the passage of a
cold front. Dry weather is expected on Friday with another round
of showers expected on Saturday. The second half of the memorial
day weekend looks be great with highs in the 70 with clearing
Near term through Thursday night
As of 726 pm edt Wednesday... Going forecast is in great shape
for the overnight hours with the main idea being mid clouds
stream across the area through the first half of the night then
scatter out towards sunrise. Winds will be light with lows
mainly in the 40s.
Previous discussion After a sunny start to the day, cirrus
clouds have moved into much of the north country out ahead of
convection currently going on across the ohio river valley. This
should limit additional diurnal heating with highs across much of
the north country capping out in the lower to upper 60s. The clouds
cover will remain entrenched across the region which will help limit
radiational cooling as lows on drop into the mid to upper 40s.
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Thursday morning with
both mid-level and upper-level heights increasing. As this happens,
a developing a potent shortwave will take aim at the north country
with a deepening low level circulation and frontal boundary
developing just ahead of the shortwave. Throughout the day on
Thursday, temperatures will warm pretty quickly into the low to mid
70s under mostly cloudy skies with strong warm air advection in the
lowest levels. This will advect an elevated mixed layer into the
region Thursday morning which should help inhibit any shower
activity through the morning hours especially when coupled with the
anti-cyclonic flow aloft.
It doesn't look like we are going to see enough heating to mix out
the elevated mixed layer but with several rounds of forcing expected
through the afternoon and evening hours, storms are still expected
to develop. The first round will be around 21z across northern new
york when a pre-frontal trough moves through the region. At this
point, we will see the maximum instability of around 750-1000 j kg
of CAPE with 60 knots of bulk shear. This should help to develop
some discrete cells (possibly a supercell or two) right along the
axis of forcing. The 850 mb trough follows the pre-frontal trough by
2 hours with the surface front not expected to actually push through
until well after sunset. If the first round of convection does fire
as expected, the 850 mb trough and surface cold front should pass
through the region rather uneventfully. However, if the EML provides
to be a stronger than expected deterrent, convection will be delayed
until about 00z as further erosion of the low level inversion is
Nevertheless, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms does
exist for Thursday, especially over northern new york. If a cold
pool can get established and a linear MCS develops, models show
vectors between 60-70 knots which could cause very fast storm
motions that could yield widespread strong winds. Models aren't very
supportive of this at the moment but the threat does exist. The best
instability axis will be present across northern new york and should
be the focus for convection tomorrow. Equilibrium levels should be
fairly low (around 22,000 ft) which models prog to be about -25
degrees c. This should limit the potential for large hail with steep
low level lapse rates and dry air entrainment in the mid levels
favoring strong winds as storms collapse or if they evolve into an
mcs Thursday night.
Any showers and thunderstorms that develop should quickly move east
through the night on Thursday with widespread rainfall amounts a
third of an inch or less. As with all thunderstorms, the potential
for locally higher amounts exist but lower than favorable pwat's
should limit how much rainfall any location will receive. Following|
the cold front, gusty northwest winds will develop Thursday night
with showers becoming more orographic with good upslope flow and
cooler temperatures aloft aiding in steepening the low and mid level
Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 331 pm edt Wednesday... No real changes made from previous
forecast. Lingering upslope showers remain through the morning hours
Friday before diminishing towards afternoon. As low pressure pulls
off to the east, pressure gradient remains over the area so expect
gusty northwest winds turning north northeast during the daytime
hours with afternoon mixing bringing wind gusts between 20-25 knots.
High temperatures will be in mid to upper 60s under partly cloudy
skies. Lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50 with increasing
clouds. Friday night will be dry but our next system is approaching
quickly from the west for Saturday.
Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 331 pm edt Wednesday... The active pattern continues as high
pressure anchored across the southeast directs storm systems over
our area. Another front will approach the area during the day on
Saturday. Still some timing differences between the models but
consensus is good on strong moisture plume coming up from gulf of
mexico with pwat values across the area between 1.5-1.75". Cloud
depths are around 11,000 ft so expecting efficient rain produces,
especially given juicy pwats. The dynamics thermodynamics are not
overly impressive for a convective weather threat so have omitted
thunder from forecast given CAPE values less than 200 j kg and weak
shortwave energy. As front kicks through, another piece of vorticity
grazes the area. 925mb temperatures >14c on Sunday will see temps
climb into the mid 70s, with the potential for near 80 across some
valley locations. With daytime heating and falling heights aloft, a
few convective showers and rumbles of thunders may be possible, but
not expecting any strong or severe storms. After this, the active
pattern remains with a series of troughs rounding the ridge across
the southeastern us through much of next week. Therefore have
continued the idea of near normal temperatures and chances for
Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions will persist through the
majority of the next 24 hours with mid clouds streaming over the
area through 06z before scattering out towards sunrise. Clouds
will then thicken and lower mid-day into tomorrow afternoon as a
cold front and potential convection approach. Winds slacken
overnight to less than 4kts then strengthen from the southwest
with gusts up to 20 knots at most terminals by 18z.
Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.
Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.
Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.
Saturday:VFR. Chance shra.
Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance shra,
slight chance tsra.
Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.
Memorial day:VFR. Chance shra.
Btv watches warnings advisories
near term... Clay lahiff
short term... Larocca
long term... Larocca
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|Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY||141 mi||73 min||ENE 7||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||63°F||39°F||41%||1021 hPa|
Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W|
|2 days ago||NE||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW|
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (21,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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