Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Massena, NY
May 16, 2024 12:24 AM EDT (04:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 12:27 PM Moonset 1:51 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 160217 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1017 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary boundary overhead will remain in place through Thursday, resulting in some scattered showers and generally unsettled weather. The forecast trends drier for southern and eastern Vermont to close out the week, though better chances for showers continue further north and west through Saturday. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward, with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week expected with a gradual warming trend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1014 PM EDT Wednesday...Embedded heavier elements have been holding on a bit better than anticipated across the northern tier, and so a couple Flood Warnings are in effect where about 2 inches of rain has fallen near Chasm Falls and near East Haven. There should continue to be a drop in rainfall rates, although hourly guidance coming in is starting to indicate somewhat greater coverage holding on overnight. Given the current state of affairs, raised PoPs somewhat. Fog is starting to develop, with several dewpoint depressions of just 1 or 2, it's not surprising
Previous forecast below
Main forecast challenge tonight will be fog and low stratus, with only light flow and ample low-level moisture lingering around. Expect areas of mist and stratus, especially in areas of higher terrain. Best chances for dense fog will be in the climatologically favoured valley locations of eastern Vermont.
Little change in the overall setup for Thursday with weak stationary boundary remaining in place. However for Thursday upper-levels will be less favorable for lift as a narrow ridge noses in from the southwest. Thus, still looking at a few showers over our northern counties along the boundary, but less coverage and lighter intensities than what we saw today. Thunderstorm potential for Thursday looks quite low. Can't completely rule out an isolated storm, but forecast soundings showing shallow instability under the ridge which will limit thunder potential. Highs for Thursday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers will come to an end Thursday night and overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase throughout the day Friday ahead of a mid/upper level trough and associated shortwave with south-southeasterly surface flow Friday and Friday night.
However, rain showers are likely to hold off until Friday night, and 925mb temps are modeled in the 11-19 C range above 0. This will allow temperatures to soar into the 70s for most locations, with the potential for over achieving highs where breaks of sun occur. Dew points continue to look reasonable in the 50s for most, so conditions won't be too muggy.
Precipitation chances will increase Friday night, particularly for northern New York zones, though chances look to only be in the 20- 50% range as a cold front lifts north. Mostly cloudy skies will ensure temperatures remain mild with lows in the 50s for most.
Warmest temperatures will be in the wider valleys, coolest temperatures east of the Green Mountains. Showery weather could continue Saturday with precip chances up to 20-40%. There's also the potential for a rumble of thunder with model soundings showing tall, thin CAPE, especially across St. Lawrence County. Saturday will also be cooler with this precipitation expected, but still seasonable in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
We continue to trend towards drier weather this weekend under mainly zonal flow with some weak upper level ridging from time to time. We maintain slight chance precipitation, however, Saturday night into Tuesday in spots. With these dry conditions, temperatures will begin to warm again into the 70s for most through midweek. Precipitation chances return midweek for another trough system moving through.
Models are not in good agreement on timing at the moment.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...Showers with embedded moderate to heavy rain is ongoing, but starting to weaken. Activity should less quickly after 04z. Similar conditions to last night should yield light winds, BKN-OVC at 7000-12000 ft agl, and patchy fog.
Precipitation was more widespread today, and thus there's moderate confidence fog will be more widespread than yesterday.
There will be a mid-level trough that pivots overhead, and may mix out fog from north to south between 09z and 13z and a surface north wind could develop as surface low pressure tracks up the US coast. So mainly kept to 2 to 4 SM visibility. After 13z, southeast to east flow will develop over Vermont, except northwest at KBTV, and then east to northeast over New York.
Winds speeds should generally stay 5 to 9 knots. A few showers will develop, mainly near the international border about 15z to 23z.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1017 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary boundary overhead will remain in place through Thursday, resulting in some scattered showers and generally unsettled weather. The forecast trends drier for southern and eastern Vermont to close out the week, though better chances for showers continue further north and west through Saturday. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward, with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week expected with a gradual warming trend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1014 PM EDT Wednesday...Embedded heavier elements have been holding on a bit better than anticipated across the northern tier, and so a couple Flood Warnings are in effect where about 2 inches of rain has fallen near Chasm Falls and near East Haven. There should continue to be a drop in rainfall rates, although hourly guidance coming in is starting to indicate somewhat greater coverage holding on overnight. Given the current state of affairs, raised PoPs somewhat. Fog is starting to develop, with several dewpoint depressions of just 1 or 2, it's not surprising
Previous forecast below
Main forecast challenge tonight will be fog and low stratus, with only light flow and ample low-level moisture lingering around. Expect areas of mist and stratus, especially in areas of higher terrain. Best chances for dense fog will be in the climatologically favoured valley locations of eastern Vermont.
Little change in the overall setup for Thursday with weak stationary boundary remaining in place. However for Thursday upper-levels will be less favorable for lift as a narrow ridge noses in from the southwest. Thus, still looking at a few showers over our northern counties along the boundary, but less coverage and lighter intensities than what we saw today. Thunderstorm potential for Thursday looks quite low. Can't completely rule out an isolated storm, but forecast soundings showing shallow instability under the ridge which will limit thunder potential. Highs for Thursday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers will come to an end Thursday night and overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase throughout the day Friday ahead of a mid/upper level trough and associated shortwave with south-southeasterly surface flow Friday and Friday night.
However, rain showers are likely to hold off until Friday night, and 925mb temps are modeled in the 11-19 C range above 0. This will allow temperatures to soar into the 70s for most locations, with the potential for over achieving highs where breaks of sun occur. Dew points continue to look reasonable in the 50s for most, so conditions won't be too muggy.
Precipitation chances will increase Friday night, particularly for northern New York zones, though chances look to only be in the 20- 50% range as a cold front lifts north. Mostly cloudy skies will ensure temperatures remain mild with lows in the 50s for most.
Warmest temperatures will be in the wider valleys, coolest temperatures east of the Green Mountains. Showery weather could continue Saturday with precip chances up to 20-40%. There's also the potential for a rumble of thunder with model soundings showing tall, thin CAPE, especially across St. Lawrence County. Saturday will also be cooler with this precipitation expected, but still seasonable in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
We continue to trend towards drier weather this weekend under mainly zonal flow with some weak upper level ridging from time to time. We maintain slight chance precipitation, however, Saturday night into Tuesday in spots. With these dry conditions, temperatures will begin to warm again into the 70s for most through midweek. Precipitation chances return midweek for another trough system moving through.
Models are not in good agreement on timing at the moment.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...Showers with embedded moderate to heavy rain is ongoing, but starting to weaken. Activity should less quickly after 04z. Similar conditions to last night should yield light winds, BKN-OVC at 7000-12000 ft agl, and patchy fog.
Precipitation was more widespread today, and thus there's moderate confidence fog will be more widespread than yesterday.
There will be a mid-level trough that pivots overhead, and may mix out fog from north to south between 09z and 13z and a surface north wind could develop as surface low pressure tracks up the US coast. So mainly kept to 2 to 4 SM visibility. After 13z, southeast to east flow will develop over Vermont, except northwest at KBTV, and then east to northeast over New York.
Winds speeds should generally stay 5 to 9 knots. A few showers will develop, mainly near the international border about 15z to 23z.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Burlington, VT,
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