Thursday, January18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Morris, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:04PM Thursday January 18, 2018 8:39 AM EST (13:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 6:39PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morris, NY
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location: 46.91, -78.37     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 181233
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
733 am est Thu jan 18 2018

The north country will remain on the northern periphery of high
pressure today and Friday. Developing south to southwest winds
will bring about a gradual moderation in temperatures, but also
considerable low cloudiness associated with moisture from the
eastern great lakes. The clouds will be most prevalent across
the adirondacks, st. Lawrence valley, and far northern vermont.

A few snow showers are possible tonight as a weak upper level
disturbance tracks from west to east across northern new york
into northern new england. Generally quiet weather is expected
over the weekend, and temperatures on Saturday are expected to
reach the lower 40s in many locations. A frontal system and
surface low pressure passing to our west Monday night into
Tuesday is expected to bring mixed wintry precipitation and a
period of plain rain to the region, before somewhat cooler
temperatures arrive for Wednesday.

Near term through Friday
As of 727 am est Thursday... Surface ridge in place from the
upper ohio valley newd into the SRN tier of ny is resulting in
low-level SW flow from lake ontario, and stratus deck this
morning across NRN ny and much of NRN vt. This general flow pattern
will maintain mostly cloudy conditions through the daylight
hrs with scattered flurries (measurable snow not expected)
across NRN vt. More persistent snow showers possible at times
across NRN ny associated with moisture from lake ontario, and
upslope conditions into st. Lawrence and franklin ny counties.

Best potential for periods of sunshine across central into
s-central vt, especially east of the greens into the connecticut
river valley.

Otherwise, air mass will continue to slowly moderate today.

Readings generally in the upr single digits to mid teens early
this morning, except lower 20s in the st. Lawrence valley with
more abundant cloud cover and stronger SW winds (10-15 mph)
keeping pbl mixed. Stayed close to MOS consensus on aftn highs
with readings generally 24-28f areawide by mid-aftn.

Tonight: a quick-moving northern stream shortwave trough -
evident in IR imagery across the arrowhead of minnesota - will
shift across NRN ny and NRN new england during the overnight
hours. Will see increased cloud cover areawide with a few snow
showers possible, especially across the NRN adirondacks and nrn
greens, where a coating to 0.5" snowfall is possible. Mentioned
just a slight chance of snow showers in valley locations, with
limited moisture availability with this shortwave trough.

Overnight lows generally in the low- mid teens, except around
20f in the st. Lawrence valley.

Friday: quiet and a bit milder, with valley highs 31-34f in most
areas. Continued swly low-level flow regime, so will continue to
deal with considerable stratus associated with moisture from the
ern great lakes. Daytime sfc winds generally s-sw 5-10 mph.

Short term Friday night through Saturday
As of 329 am est Thursday... Rather quiet for the short term with
an upper level trough passing to the north of the CWA Friday
night into Saturday. With that, just an increase in cloud cover
along the international border as well as a slight chance of a
snow shower, but not much else to speak of to start the weekend.

Winds still look to be gusty during the day as southerly flow
begins to pick up, but right now, it still looks to be sub-
advisory level. Temperatures will to trend upwards with warm air
advection with overnight lows in the 20s and upper teens in the
eastern vt counties. Saturday highs look to be in the low 40s
across the region.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 329 am est Thursday... The second half of the weekend
continues to look to be quiet with slightly low high
temperatures for Sunday as flow shifts to the northwest. Outside
of a shower or two in the higher terrain, the weekend looks to
be pretty uneventful. This precedes a rather active early part
of next week as fairly deep low will move across the great lakes
and into ontario sometime Tuesday.

Models continue to disagree on timing, with the GFS still running
about 12 hours ahead of the ecmwf, but the overall idea is the
same, a secondary surface low develops along a cold front and
rides up over our region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. With
this secondary low, that means the warmer air at lower levels
will have a harder time of really coming in force and scouring
out the low level cold air. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a
widespread mixed precipitation event, with a general light snow
to start late on Monday, a good amount of sleet and perhaps
areas of freezing rain in the middle, and ending as snow later
Tuesday or Tuesday night. Have continued as the previous shift
did and used a mix of the warmer GFS and colder ECMWF to help
determine precipitation type. Still, this far out locking into
particular location for sleet freezing rain is a bit premature
as the forecast will continue to change until we get closer to
the event. Still, on the bright side, with this looking to be
much cooler than last week's event, hydro looks to be less of a
concern but still bears monitoring.

Beyond this system, Wednesday and beyond look rather quiet,
though a snow shower or two are not out of the question. Look
for highs in the long term in the 30s with Tuesday touching the
lower 40s in the valleys and overnight lows in the 20s to teens.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Through 12z Friday... Latest IR satellite imagery shows stratus
deck stretching from lake ontario ewd across much of NRN ny and
far NRN vt. Should see persistent MVFR ceilings today at
btv pbg mss with occasionally lower (ifr) ceilings at slk with
wswly upslope flow conditions. Hir trrn obscd, and may see
occasional flurries. Periods of snow showers possible at slk
with vsby below 3sm possible. Winds generally expected s-sw
throughout the TAF period at 5-10kts. Some valley channeled flow
vcnty of kmss will yield slightly higher wind speeds, generally
10-15kts. A modest northern stream shortwave trough may bring a
few passing snow showers tonight across the region. Coverage
generally expected to be limited, and have only carried vcsh
group at kslk after 02z attm.


Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance shra,
slight chance shsn.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance sn, likely
fzra, chance ra, chance shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Verasamy
long term... Verasamy
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.