Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Morris, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 9:16PM Monday June 26, 2017 8:21 AM EDT (12:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 10:16PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morris, NY
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location: 46.91, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 261127
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
727 am edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
We will have a dry start to the day today... But scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. An even greater likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday. Temperatures will be
several degrees below normal both today and Tuesday. The threat
of showers will continue into Wednesday... But then a change will
take place to a warming trend starting Thursday and continuing
through the weekend. However... This pattern will also be
conducive to more widespread showers and thunderstorms across
the entire area during this period.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 727 am edt Monday... Going forecast in good shape and only
tweak was to remove mention of any showers through mid-morning
across the northeast kingdom as showers that were moving toward
the area dissipated rather quickly in the past hour or two. And
just a few tweaks to match current sky conditions and near term
trends.

Previous discussion...

noticeable differences standout when comparing today to yesterday
with respect to the convective potential. Today we are lacking
the dynamic support as the shortwave trough that enhanced
convection yesterday is moving northeast of the region this
morning. No well defined dynamic support is expected across the
area today. Cooler temperatures today will not allow for as much
instability that developed yesterday and enhanced convection.

Enough instability will develop to support convection... Mainly
scattered showers with only isolated thunderstorms. Deep layer
shear has shifted just a bit to our south today versus being
right over our area today. As a result... Only looking at
isolated to scattered showers today along with a few
thunderstorms. Synoptic scale features and thermodynamic
profiles do not support any storms becoming organized today.

Highs today will only be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Tonight... The showers and isolated storms lift northeast and
most of the activity should be done by midnight. Lows will
generally be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Tuesday... Well defined shortwave trough moves out of the eastern
great lakes and provide sufficient dynamic support for the
development of showers and some thunderstorms. Colder air aloft
will move into the region and despite highs only in the mid 60s
to lower 70s... Much like today... Destabilization will occur and
sufficient instability should develop for convection as 850-500
millibar lapse rates become dry adiabatic. These two elements
should be enough to create more widespread showers than today
and the idea of many areas having likely precipitation chances
looks real good. If any storms do get organized on Tuesday... Could
see some small hail with them as wet bulb zero values will be
on the lower side... Much like on Sunday.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday
As of 450 am edt Monday... Overall convective activity should
begin to wane Tuesday evening with the loss of surface
instability but expect a few showers and thunderstorms to linger
through the night as the driving mid upper level shortwave
trough passes through the region. It's a fairly cold trough for
late june so behind the feature temps will run about 5 degrees
below normal across the board with lows in the 50s across the
st. Lawrence and champlain valleys to mid upper 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday features a drier northwest flow behind the exiting upper
trough with a mix of clouds sunshine and temps seasonal in the
low mid 70s. Could see some terrain driven showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms with weak surface instability developing in the
afternoon, especially across northern areas, but with the lack of
any strong forcing aloft areal coverage should be low.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 450 am edt Monday... Another active period of weather is
expected for the end of the work week and through the weekend
with the highlights being the potential for widespread and
possibly heavy rain Thursday and again Saturday. Aforementioned
upper trough exits the region Wednesday night with possibly the
last dry night of the week before a fast westerly flow develops
aloft for Thursday through Friday. Shortwave energy moving
through the flow aloft combined with a warm front extended west
to east from low pressure moving through the great lakes will
provide the setup for widespread rain to develop along the
boundary during the day Thursday. Instability is rather weak,
and pwats aren't super high (1-1.5") so the heavy rain threat
shouldn't be widespread, but this event may prove to be the pre
for potential hydro problems on the weekend. As the warm front
shifts over the region Thursday Thursday night it stalls with
additional heat and moisture streaming into the region Friday
night into Saturday on increasing southwesterly flow aloft with
blocking high pressure anchored off bermuda. While this is
several days away, indications are for a return of 70 dewpoints
and a plume of pwat's in excess of 2" presenting a heavy rain
threat Saturday and Saturday night. Depending on what QPF falls
through the week and especially on Thursday, flash flooding
could be possible this weekend. Stay tuned.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Through 12z Tuesday... Overall looking atVFR conditions through
the period. Areal coverage of showers will be isolated to
scattered in nature and will be between 18z and 04z with just a
low chance for thunder. Have indicated vicinity showers at all
sites during this time period. Despite the showers... Ceilings
will generally beVFR through the period and visibilities for
that matter too. Some MVFR ceilings may make it into parts of
northern new york late in the period... Generally after 06z.

Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period and
will be from the west and southwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night:VFR. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Thursday:VFR MVFR. Chance ra... Chance tsra.

Thursday night:VFR MVFR. Likely ra... Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Friday:VFR. Chance shra... Chance tsra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Evenson
short term... Lahiff
long term... Lahiff
aviation... Evenson


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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.