Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Morris, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:09PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:11 PM EDT (00:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:30AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morris, NY
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location: 46.91, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 252324
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
issued by national weather service albany ny
724 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will continue to provide fair and very
warm, record setting temperatures to the region through
Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday night
along with a chance of showers. Much cooler, more seasonable
weather is expected behind this front to round out the week.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 715 pm edt Monday... More record temperatures have been
set again today as deep layer, anomalously strong high pressure
remains anchored across the northeast. This high will remain
draped across the area into Tuesday night with a persistence
forecast being offered over the next 36 hours. Expect any
isolated shower activity to end over the next 1-2 hours leaving
another mainly clear night outside the typical fog-prone areas
of the dacks eastern vt and possibly the slv. Lows tonight very
similar to last night, mainly ranging from 55 to 65 with
customary variability. Winds light to calm.

By tomorrow another rinse and repeat day is expected with mainly
sunny skies outside a few passing thin high clouds. 850 925 my
temperatures are perhaps a half degree cooler than today, but
should have little impact to high temperatures with values once
again topping out in the mid 80s across elevated terrain to the
lower 90s in the deeper valleys. See climate section below for
specific records. Then clear to partly cloudy by Tuesday night
under light winds and patchy fog in favored locales. Lows again
mainly in the 55 to 65 range.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday
As of 317 pm edt Monday... Its much of the same story for Tuesday
evening as the ridge will still be in place. High heat during
the day Tuesday and high dewpoints during the afternoon will
lead to fog overnight. General feeling is that there will be
some dense fog in the sheltered valley locations with some
patches of fog elsewhere. Overnight lows will be in the 60s
again, which is more indicative of our normals highs this time
of year.

The airmass will be slightly changing into Wednesday as the
ridge finally breaks down however not much changes in the thermal
profile until late. 925mb temps still support temps in the upper
80s with 90's in the valleys. I wasn't as bullish on that as
we should start to build in some cloud cover that would
insulate the north country from peak heating. Even so the
forecast of mid to upper 80s would still set or tie records at
btv mpv mss 1v4. With records possible i'll hold on to the
previous discussion highlighting heat hazards below:
while these temps are considered sub advisory(<95 f), they are
not to be taken lightly especially given the time of year. Based
on the forecast and current records, its expected that records
will fall at all sites by 3-5 degrees. Prolonged exposure
outside combined with strenuous activity can lead to heat
related injuries. Please take caution, stay hydrated and take
frequent breaks during any outdoor activities. This will be the
fourth consecutive day with 90+ degree heat indexes during the
afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Wednesday night is when we should finally start to see some
reprieve from the heat. A mid level short wave will finally move
into the north country but the moisture isn't very strong. I've
trended the forecast back another 3-6 hours as guidance seemed
overdone on the precip threat during the late afternoon
Wednesday.

A weak cold front will swing through during the overnight hours
Wednesday and bring scattered showers. Given the overnight
timing I dont feel there will be any thunder threat so i've
opted to continue with no mention of thunder. Behind the front
we get into cold air advection and see temps return to near
normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Late in the week heading into the weekend guidance is starting
to bring a shortwave trough into the region so i've mentioned
slight chance for pops but I dont have high confidence in
timing of the isolated to scattered showers.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
MainlyVFR conditions through about 04z-06z Tue before fog
returns at several sites through the overnight period. Little in
the way of cloud cover through the period, other than diurnally
driven few-sct cumulus clouds and cirrus clouds, but a period
of lifr to vlifr ceilings associated with the fog seems most
likely at kslk, krut and kmpv. Winds will be less than 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook...

Monday night:VFR. Patchy fg.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Climate
Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period
through Wednesday sep 27
day burlington massena montpelier
9 25 85 1891 90 2007 85 2007
9 26 84 1934 82 1970 83 2007
9 27 83 1920 82 2003 80 2007
for burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds
90f or higher: 9 16 1939
88f or higher: 9 22 1965
87f or higher: 9 23 1895
86f or higher: 9 23 1895 (was 87f that day)
records:
day burlington massena montpelier st johnsbury
9 23 86
9 24 91 88 85 89* (tied)

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson jmg
near term... Evenson jmg
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation...

climate... Btv


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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.