Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Morris, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:53PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:19 PM EST (22:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:33PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morris, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 46.91, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbtv 212046
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
346 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest late this afternoon
before weakening after midnight night. While a few showers are
possible through the afternoon and evening hours, the areal coverage
will diminish as large scale high pressure builds into the region on
Friday. Expect more seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday with
highs in the 30s and lows in the mid teens to mid 20s. The next
chance of precipitation comes late Saturday night and Sunday where a
mix of snow, freezing rain and sleet will be possible before
changing over to all rain during the afternoon hours on Sunday.

Strong and gusty southwesterly winds ranging from 25 to 40 mph will
develop on Sunday as a surface low tracks to our west. Much colder
air will move into the north country on Monday and Tuesday with the
return of below normal temperatures to start the upcoming work week.

Near term through Friday night
As of 345 pm est Thursday... A few breaks in the clouds have begun to
develop across the champlain valley this afternoon but these breaks
are few and far between. Nevertheless, temperatures have finally
warmed into the 40s in response to increased insolation. Looking at
observations across the forecast area, the strongest winds currently
reside in the champlain valley which is attributed to the warmer
temperatures at the surface. The warmer surface temps have steepened
low level lapse rates as temperatures aloft begin to cool. This has
helped and will continue to help mix stronger winds down to the
surface through the afternoon hours. The gusty winds will likely
continue through at least midnight and possibly a few hours
thereafter. With the continued cold air advection, the low level
lapse rates will remain steep enough to mix winds down from between
3500 and 5000 ft. The core of strong winds in the mixed layer will
shift eastward through the overnight hours and by Friday morning
winds will generally be 10 mph or less.

There are still a few snow rain showers residing across northern new
york and northern vermont this afternoon with a weak deformation
zone situated across the region. Thanks to the dry-slot that
developed this morning, moisture has been lacking with has reduced
both areal coverage and intensity of any linger shower activity.

This deformation zone will dissipate after midnight with synoptic
scale ridging building across the region heading into Friday. In
addition, surface high pressure will be centered across the north
country Friday afternoon which will reduce precipitation chances to
zero come Friday. Temperatures will be more seasonable Friday with
highs in the 30s and lows in the mid teens to mid 20s.

Short term Saturday through Monday
As of 345 pm est Thursday... Expect a quiet start to the weekend as broad
high pressure crests over the region. The nice weather will
come to an end during the overnight hours Saturday as the high
departs to the east. A deepening low pressure system will be
digging into the great lakes region Saturday evening lifting a
warm front and precipitation along with it late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Southerly warm air advection should bring a
warm nose into northern new york leading to some periods of
some mixed precipitation overnight before transitioning to all
rain by mid morning. Across vermont it will be a different story
as we'll have to wait and see how strong the coastal low
develops. The NAM really deepens that secondary low and forced
colder air in east of the greens which will hold on to some
wintry precip well into the afternoon hours. I choose to offer a
solution sort of in between because the NAM is an outlier with
regards to the thermal profiles but I do agree with slightly
colder temperatures being more likely across eastern vermont
where its notoriously hard to scour out cold temps. The general
consensus of medium ranged models is that the warm nose should
be somewhere between +2 to +4 and thats plenty enough to melt
any ice crystals aloft.

By the afternoon early evening its a moot point as we'll be sitting
solidly in the warm sector of the low pressure system and everywhere
should see rain. The amount of precip will heavily depend on a
strong southwesterly jet which will lead to shadowing across
portions of the champlain valley.

That strong low level jet will also be the forcing for some blustery
winds across the saint lawrence valley Sunday and then across the
rest of the north country Sunday night into Monday. Wind gusts
based off the latest round of guidance should solidly be in the 35-
40 mph range with a few gusts up to 45 possible.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday... The work week should be relatively quiet with
a few weak impulses that pass through under broad upper level
cyclonic flow. Based on latest trends we should have a couple of
seasonable cool days to start with temperatures pushing back to
near normal by the middle of the week.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
Through 18z Friday... For the most part, it looks like shower
activity has dwindled quickly across the north country early
this afternoon. A few stray showers cannot be ruled out but it
appears an restrictions on visibilities will be limited. That
being said, MVFR toVFR ceilings persist at the moment and the
general trend should be to improve these ceilings heading into
the evening and overnight hours although kslk will likely remain
MVFR through the forecast package. Winds have been a touch
weaker than thought as temperatures today have under-performed
under thick cloud cover. We should still see a wind shift from
the southwest to northwest late this afternoon into the evening
but it looks like winds will be 22 knots or less for the most
part. Winds will begin to weaken after midnight as we begin to
stabilize the surface layer and the core of stronger winds aloft
slides off to our east.

Outlook...

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
pl, chance sn, definite fzra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite ra, definite shra, definite fzra.

Sunday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Likely shsn, likely shra.

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Clay
near term... Clay
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation... Clay


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
Click EDIT to select an airport
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.