Saturday, February23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Ogdensburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:47PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:58 AM EST (14:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:03PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogdensburg, NY
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location: 46.95, -78.02     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 231426
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
926 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Quiet weather across the north country today will become unsettled
tonight through Monday as a low pressure system moving through the
great lakes will bring a wintry mix to the area tonight into Sunday
morning before a changeover to all rain Sunday afternoon, and back
to snow Sunday night. Strong and gusty winds ranging from 25 to 50
mph are also expected across portions of the area. Colder air
returns to the region next week with highs in the teens and single
digit lows through Wednesday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 920 am est Saturday... The forecast is pretty much on track
this morning. We have had a few reports of some flurries in
spots, so did increase pops just a tad to account for this
activity. However, any flurries will be isolated and limited to
just the next few hours, and no accumulation is anticipated, so
kept pops below slight chance threshholds. No other changes were
needed this morning.

Previous discussion... Stubborn low clouds trapped beneath a
strong subsidence inversion are persisting this morning across
the adirondacks and st. Lawrence valley while points eastward
remain clear. Temps across the region vary widely from as high
as the upper 20s under deep cloud over in the southern st.

Lawrence valley, to 6 below under clear skies in island pond.

Moving through the morning expect the inversion to finally break
with clouds scattering out across northern new york, but also
increasing in coverage across northern vermont for a generally
partly sunny day. After a cool start to the morning east of the
adirondacks, a developing light southerly flow will rise temps
into the low mid 30s area-wide making for a nice early spring

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
As of 508 am est Saturday... Better enjoy today because tomorrow is
going to get ugly. The low pressure system that we've been
highlighting for many days now remains on track to pull northeast
through the great lakes late tonight through Sunday, providing a
myriad of hazardous weather to the north country through Monday as
it tracks through southern quebec.

First threat will be a period of mixed precipitation arriving late
tonight through mid-day Sunday as a warm front lifts through the
region. With generally sub-freezing surface temperatures in place at
the onset, ptype will be a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain
outside of the southern st. Lawrence valley where above-freezing
temps will support just plain rain. Overall QPF during the mix
period is rather light so only expecting an inch or less of snow
accumulation and up to a tenth of an inch of ice, but that will be
enough to create some slick driving conditions Sunday morning
prompting the issuance of a winter weather advisory. By mid-day
though, a rapidly increasing southerly flow will warm surface temps
above freezing into the mid 30s east to around 50 west ending the
mixed precip threat.

Second and more impactful hazard is going to be the potential for
gusty to locally strong winds which is going to come in pieces and
impact different portions of the region at different times. First
surge is associated with a very strong southeasterly 850mb jet of 70
to 80 knots between 12-18z Sunday. At 925mb winds are more in the 35-
50kt range with still some mixed signals in regards to how much
mixing occurs, especially given relatively moist adiabatic lapse
rates and precipitation around. Given that, anticipating the full
force of the jet is not likely to reach the surface and anticipate
some localized downslope gusts of 40-50 mph along the western slopes
of the adirondacks and green mountains. Due to the brief and
isolated nature of these gusts have decided to hold off on a wind
advisory and mention in the winter weather advisory. Next surge of
winds occurs after a passage of a strong cold front Sunday evening
into Monday where the latest forecast soundings continue to indicate
a deeply mixed layer developing under strong low level cold air
advection across much of northern new york. 850mb winds peak back up
to 60-70kts and 40-50kt at 925mb, but this time soundings are more
dry adiabatic lending to better mixing with mean mixed layer winds
around 50kts. Decided to hold onto the high wind watch as it might
be hard to reach warning criteria, but a wind advisory is a sure bet
and will allow the next shift to decide on headlines. Also added
essex county new york into the watch as well. Finally, on Monday,
both jets spread over the entire region producing a widespread
threat for gusts of 35-45 mph. Could see additional headlines for
wind at that time.

Third and final threat is the potential for accumulation snow Sunday
night into Monday as the aforementioned cold front shifts through
and upslope snow showers develop across the adirondacks and
northeast vermont. Current indications are for a general 3 to 5
inches which may require another winter weather advisory. We'll let
the above mentioned threats play out before we tackle this one.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 508 am est Saturday... Northwest flow aloft becomes established
over the area Monday night. There will be some lingering snow
showers in the mountains during the first half of the night before
noticeably drier air moves into the region. With that drier air
comes colder air as 850 millibar temperatures will be in the -20c to
-26c range. This will allow temperatures to fall into the single
digits above and below zero and with some wind from the northwest
wind chill values will likely drop into the 5-15 below range early
Tuesday morning. Dry weather and below normal temperatures will be
the rule on Tuesday with highs generally in the teens. Clear skies
and light winds Tuesday night should allow for the coldest night of
the extended period despite warming temperatures aloft. Much of the
area will see lows in the zero to 10 below range. Wednesday starts
out dry but a fast moving shortwave trough and its associated
surface low move across the area Wednesday afternoon and night. This
should bring a chance of snow to the entire area and could see us
picking up a quick 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow. High pressure builds
back into the region Thursday and Friday for dry weather... But a
continuation of below normal temperatures with highs generally in
the 20s.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 12z Sunday... We will see a mix ofVFR and MVFR ceilings
until 16z before clouds erode and or lift out of the area.

Expecting only mid and high level clouds this afternoon through
the first half of the night. Thus looking atVFR ceilings
through 06z and then we will see lowering clouds with widespread
MVFR ceilings developing across the area as a warm front
approaches. As this front approaches... The threat of mixed
precipitation will increase with a mix of snow... Sleet... And
freezing rain developing between 07z and 12z. Visibilities which
will mainlyVFR for much of the period will start to lower into
the MVFR category after 07z. Winds will generally be under 10
knots through 06z... The start to increase from the southeast at
most locations with gusts in the 18 to 24 knot range at most
sites. At kmss however... Northeast winds around 10 knots will


Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Definite shra, definite ra, definite fzra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 45 kt. Chance shsn, chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Slight
chance shsn.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance sn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
Sunday for vtz001-002-005-009-011-016>019.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon est Sunday for

Ny... Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
Sunday for nyz026>031-034-035-087.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for nyz026-027-029>031-034-087.

Synopsis... Lahiff
near term... Hastings lahiff
short term... Lahiff
long term... Evenson
aviation... Evenson

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.