Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Two Harbors, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:33PM Monday March 27, 2017 5:38 AM CDT (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:57AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 203 Am Cst Tue Mar 7 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 201 am cst...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located 10 nm west of port wing safe harbor...moving north at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Castle danger...brule point...and twin points safe harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4704 9169 4716 9147 4720 9133 4673 9154 4672 9174
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201703070830;;132282 FZUS73 KDLH 070803 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 203 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017 LSZ143>145-162-070830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Harbors, MN
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location: 47.03, -91.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 270858
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
358 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 358 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017
a few areas of wintry mixed precipitation are expected this
morning before high pressure builds for the afternoon, yielding
dry and partly cloudy conditions through Tuesday.

Mainly cloudy skies were found across much of the northland at
330 am this morning. Areas of fog have been reported, with some
locales experiencing patchy dense fog. A few rain showers were
found across the southern portion of our wisconsin zones, mainly
south of a line from spooner to new post, to park falls. Another
area of radar echoes was observed over central and portions of
north-central minnesota, but precipitation was not reaching the
ground. Temperatures were at or a few degrees above freezing in
northwest wisconsin, to the upper 20s to low 30s in northeast
minnesota.

A weak cool front arced from southeast saskatchewan across
northern north dakota and northern minnesota into northern ontario
this morning with a ridge of high pressure over the canadian
prairies. A trough of low pressure aloft was over the central
dakotas, with a smaller shortwave trough was over northeast
minnesota. Two ribbons of cyclonic vorticity marked the eastern
edges of both troughs. Forcing for ascent with the leading trough
was supporting the showers over northwest wisconsin, while the
trailing and deeper trough blossoming the radar returns in central
and northern minnesota. A low-level wedge of dry air on the inl,
mpx, and abr 27.00z soundings suggests those echoes will need to
intensify before saturating the column enough to reach the
surface. Have added some low chance pops from the brainerd lakes
into the arrowhead this morning as the precipitation processes
aloft continue and lift northeastward. The showers over northwest
wisconsin are expected to drift east-southeast with time and
should exit the forecast area later this morning or early this
afternoon. Thermal profiles over minnesota suggest a possibility
for light snow or rain showers, while rain or freezing rain is
favored in northwest wisconsin. Any areas which receive freezing
rain this morning can expect only a thin glaze, which will melt
quickly after sunrise. The cool front will sag southeastward today
before virtually washing out by early evening. Nudged temps a
little warmer today, especially in the western zones, but still
cooler than consensus. Think the lingering cloud cover will be
slow to erode this morning and early afternoon, limiting diurnal
heating.

Partly cloudy to mainly clear skies are expected for tonight as
high pressure drifts overhead. With recent mild temperatures,
precipitation, and some melting snowpack, think fog and low
stratus will develop tonight, especially in north-central
minnesota and north of the iron range. However, the light winds
and mainly clear skies early should be sufficient to cool much of
our minnesota zones below the consensus blends before fog
develops. Have nudged the overnight lows cooler as a result. High
pressure will remain in control on Tuesday yielding mainly sunny
to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures should climb a few degrees
warmer, except near lake superior where onshore flow will work to
keep highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 358 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017
upper level and surface ridging will cover the forecast area
Tuesday night through Wednesday. The surface ridge remains on
Wednesday while a baggy shortwave approaches from the west. This
baggy shortwave in the northern stream begins to phase with the
southern streams closed low moving through the central plains
Wednesday night. Differences begin to show up in the handling of
this melange, especially in regard to qpf. The ECMWF is more
bullish with QPF into north-central wisconsin by 12z Thursday.

Leaned to the drier approach of the gfs/gem and have a dry
forecast Wednesday night. Thursday and Thursday night finds the
northern stream disconnecting from the southern stream on the gfs
which keeps a dry forecast/surface ridging over the region. The
gem/ecmwf maintain the phasing until late Thursday night. Used a
blend which favored the gem/ecmwf which had QPF tracks across the
southeast portion of the wisconsin forecast area Thursday and
Thursday evening, before the system departs late. A surface high
drifts over the region Friday with weak upper ridging. The models
come into better agreement with the handling of the mass fields
Friday night and Saturday. An upper-level shortwave trough
crosses the forecast area late Friday night through Saturday. A
cold front will sweep across the region. Thermal profiles suggest
a rain/snow mix late Friday night changing to all rain Saturday.

Model differences return for Saturday night and Sunday. The gem
has a clipper moving over the region, while the gfs/ecmwf feature
surface high pressure nearby, but large differences aloft. The gem
was ignored. Used a blended approach which resulted in some low
chance pops with the rain/snow mix in the evening, snow late,
then back to rain during the day Sunday with just enough upper
forcing nearby to warrant a mention.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1215 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017
a trough of low pressure at the surface and a shortwave were
moving through portions of the northland late this evening and
they will continue into Monday morning. Conditions varied fromVFR
over a good portion of northern minnesota to vlifr around lake
superior to ifr/MVFR over northwest wisconsin. Drizzle or freezing
drizzle will be possible over portions of northwest wisconsin
into Monday morning as the shortwave impacts that area.

We do expect fog to continue to form overnight but confidence in
how dense it becomes and if stratus expands once again are lower
than average. Kdlh has bounced around from from lifr to MVFR and
back to lifr. We think areas around lake superior will have the
best chance at seeing lifr or vlifr conditions. Conditions will
then improve on Monday as surface high pressure builds in. We
expect most areas will improve toVFR at some point during the day
but not all with areas around lake superior most likely to see
lower conditions linger.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dlh 45 28 47 28 / 10 0 0 0
inl 47 24 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
brd 55 29 57 31 / 10 0 0 0
hyr 47 27 54 27 / 20 0 0 0
asx 43 27 45 27 / 10 0 0 0

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Huyck
long term... Gsf
aviation... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PNGW3 - Port Wing, WI 22 mi59 min W 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 1014.6 hPa
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 27 mi34 min WSW 7 G 12 33°F 1013.9 hPa
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 28 mi51 min Calm G 1 33°F 31°F
PKBW3 35 mi159 min Calm 32°F 1015 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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NE8
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NE14
G18
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G27
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SW1
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N8
G12
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G7
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G13
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G16
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NE9
G13
NE9
G15
NE8
G14
NE9
G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Two Harbors, MN4 mi46 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F30°F81%1012.9 hPa
Silver Bay, MN19 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast34°F33°F100%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from TWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6NE4CalmNE6NE3NE4E4CalmE3E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3NW4
1 day agoE8NE8E16
G19
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NE9E11
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E10E7NE6NE5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3NE5N3E3CalmCalmE3CalmE3E5NE4NE4NE6E7NE6E6NE6E7NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.