Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Two Harbors, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:58PM Sunday January 21, 2018 6:49 AM CST (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:07AMMoonset 9:44PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ144 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Two Harbors, MN
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location: 47.03, -91.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 211153
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
553 am cst Sun jan 21 2018

Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 334 am cst Sun jan 21 2018
the main story for the short-term forecast period is the upcoming
heavy snow potential over our northwest wisconsin counties. For
this morning, fog, with some locally dense, looks to be the main
concern. Moisture trapped underneath a strong inversion due to
melting snow these past few days will support the fog this
morning, especially from itasca and koochiching counties east to
ely and south to hibbing. Doesn't look like the visibilities will
warrant a dense fog advisory, but will monitor throughout the
morning. Fog should mix out, and visibilities improve, by this
afternoon.

For tonight and Monday, the well-advertised winter storm,
currently over the intermountain west states, will make its way
into the region. A deep, longwave trough will translate eastward,
supporting a surface low that is expected to develop out of the
colorado ok panhandle region due to lee cyclogenesis. The 21.00z
model runs have trended the path of the surface low to the
southeast, over eastern iowa and southern wisconsin. This has also
shifted the axis of the heaviest snow over northwest wisconsin to
the southeast. The bulk of the heaviest snowfall now could fall
over our eastern northwest wisconsin counties, including price,
sawyer, ashland, and iron counties. Due to the trend to delay the
onset of the snowfall, and shift the heaviest snow axis to the
southeast, decided to keep the winter storm watch as is for
now. The high-resolution models, such as the namnest, arw, and
nmm, are still indicating that some freezing drizzle light snow
will be possible at the head of lake superior tonight and early
Monday morning, due to a prolonged northeast fetch ahead of the
winter storm. Soundings indicate that ice aloft is somewhat
lacking at times, and a layer of dry air does exist above 900 mb,
so decided to maintain the freezing drizzle.

Through the rest of the day Monday, the winter storm arrives,
with the strongest lift translating over northwest wisconsin. More
ice production will lead to a transition to mostly snow over this
area, with perhaps some light snow falling over the twin ports.

The bulk of the snow will fall Monday morning after daybreak,
through Monday evening. In total, snowfall amounts between 5 to
10 inches, with some locally higher amounts, will be possible,
especially over price, iron, sawyer, and ashland counties. In
addition to the snow, northeast winds will also be gusting between
20 to 30 mph, so some blowing and drifting snow will also be
possible. The freezing drizzle over the head of lake superior
Monday could lead to accumulations up to one-tenth of an inch, so
some icing downstream of lake superior will also be possible.

Long term (Monday night through Saturday)
issued at 334 am cst Sun jan 21 2018
snow will continue over portions of northwest wisconsin into Monday
night as the surface cyclone moves northeast through michigan toward
lake huron by 12z Tuesday. There will be lake enhanced snow possible
along portions of the south shore of lake superior due to northeast
low level winds and 850mb temperatures initially around -8c dropping
to around -10c by 12z Tuesday. Inversion levels are low and drier
air moves across western lake superior through the night. These
factors should limit the lakes contribution to snow accumulation
some. The bulk of the snow will fall Monday evening with 1 to 3
inches possible from near siren into the bayfield peninsula and
points east. An additional inch or so will be possible in the
snowbelt of ashland iron counties after 06z Tuesday. The snow
showers along portions of the south shore will end Tuesday as drier
air moves in. An area of high pressure will move through ontario
late Tuesday into Tuesday night causing low level winds to veer to
the east, then southeast. Colder temperatures will be moving over
the region Tuesday Tuesday night, and this may lead to lake
effect snow showers along portions of the north shore Tuesday
night into Wednesday. We increased chances and have some light
snow accumulations during that time.

An upper level ridge will move over the central CONUS into
saskatchewan alberta by 12z Thursday and it will continue east
passing through the northland Thursday night. Other than a few
chances for light lake effect snow, dry conditions are expected for
the rest of the northland Tuesday into Thursday night. Warm air
advection will strengthen Thursday into Thursday night. An area of
low pressure will move into the northern plains canadian prairies
Thursday then head over minnesota late Friday into Friday night.

High temperatures will warm from the teens to lower twenties Tuesday
to the lower thirties to lower forties by Friday. There will be a
chance for light snow or rain with the low pressure system Friday
with mainly snow Friday night into Saturday. At this point, a few
inches of snow looks to be possible in spots but heavy snow looks
unlikely.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 553 am cst Sun jan 21 2018
conditions ranged widely across the northland this morning with
vlifr conditions in a few locations to mostlyVFR. A cold front
was moving south into northern minnesota and will reach northern
wisconsin as well tonight. Ifr ceilings were occurring along and
behind the front. Fog will also occur today in spots but mid and
upper level clouds over southern portions of the northland was
preventing widespread fog from forming there. The guidance has
been overdoing the amount of fog and low ceilings this morning and
confidence is lower than average with this set of tafs. We do
think the trend will be for the ifr or low MVFR ceilings moving
into far northern minnesota to continue south but it may take
longer to reach kbrd kdlh khyr than the short term guidance
suggests. We expect ifr MVFR to become widespread tonight. We kept
the mention of precipitation out of the tafs ATTM but there are
indications some freezing drizzle or possibly light snow could
develop tonight and be most likely at kdlh.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 31 21 25 8 20 30 30 20
inl 28 11 21 0 0 0 0 0
brd 31 22 29 11 10 10 10 10
hyr 36 25 30 14 10 50 80 60
asx 34 24 28 15 20 40 70 60

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for wiz002>004-006>009.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Jts
long term... Melde
aviation... Melde


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLVM5 - Silver Bay, MN 27 mi46 min Calm G 2.9 28°F 1014.9 hPa
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 28 mi50 min N 2.9 G 5.1 31°F 1015.1 hPa (+0.6)25°F
PKBW3 35 mi110 min Calm 24°F 1016 hPa (+1.0)24°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Two Harbors, MN4 mi55 minN 07.00 miFair25°F19°F80%1013.5 hPa
Silver Bay, MN19 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair18°F17°F100%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from TWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4W6W4SW6CalmSW5S5CalmCalmCalmW3W4W3W4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3SW4W5SW6SW6W5W7W5W7W6SW4SW6W6W6W8
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2 days agoSW5SW5W6W9W6NW7W8W8W10W3CalmCalmW3W3SW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmSW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.