Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 3:45 AM   Moonset 4:48 PM

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FXUS63 KFGF 051958 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 258 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday.

- Gusty southerly winds Monday into Monday night

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Overall trend into tonight and Monday remains the same with the large upper level negatively tilted trough in the southwestern US with the initial shortwave ejecting east northeastward into the Plains into Monday. Southerly flow picks up ahead of the system with the sfc pres gradient increasing and strong winds aloft. Soundings indicating mixed layer winds in the mid to upper 30s kt range and some toward the 40 kt range in the RRV and points to the west. Winds in the far north/east will remain gusty with some gusts into the 30- 40 mph range, but overal expect to remain below advisory criteria.
Therefore will issue an advisory for much of Monday into Monday evening for the southwestern two-thirds of the forecast area.

Strong theta-e advection in advance of the main trough with an elongated surface low in place across western ND/southern Saskatchewan in place across the forecast area by late Monday afternoon into Monday night. This should spread an area of showers and some potential thunderstorms across the western two-thirds of the forecast area through the day Monday into Monday night. Question as to how much CAPE develops into the forecast area, with ensembles showing potential of a around 100 J/kg SBCAPE into the far south/southwest by 00Z Tuesday with around 30-35Kts deep layer shear. Therefore still some potential for a strong thunderstorm across the south late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

However a more interesting setup with some weak low level CAPE and low level shear Tuesday afternoon in the east/northeast. The surface low continues to wobble around far NW ND/SRN Sask with the sfc trough axis stretching eastward through the forecast area lifting northeastward along with the sfc cold front through northern MN Tuesday afternoon. This can provide a setup for a few strong storms as well. Low level shear around 10-15 kts and low level CAPE around 100 J/kg or so, which could lead to some rotation in stronger cells and quick stretching potential. If low level shear gets a bit stronger with a bit more instability, this setup can bring brief funnel cloud/landspout potential. Will continue to monitor for that potential in any stronger storm development with any clearing along/near the cold front boundary lifting northward Tuesday afternoon.

Split flow for the remainder of the period with mainly northerly flow aloft keeping the area seasonal or slightly warmer with little predictability for rain chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions continue through the period. Winds forecast to become more southeasterly and increase after 00Z as a developing area of low pressure deepens and pushes across the area.
Continuing to monitor conditions for tomorrow as the low develops with potential for low topped supercells late in the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-027-029>031-040.

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