Friday, November16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Lake George, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 4:52PM Friday November 16, 2018 1:48 PM CST (19:48 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake George, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.92     debug

Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 161944
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
144 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Issued at 144 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018
based on southern shift in band (current location) and radar obs
trends matching short range guidance adjustments were made to
further decrease snow amounts and shift them further south. This
still places our far southern CWA in line for potential advisory
accumulations where snow rates have started to increase. This
southern shift greatly decreases confidence in barnes county
receiving more than 1-2" (and that may be on the high end). With
that in mind I cancelled barnes county, and held onto the winter
weather advisory for sargent, ransom, and richland.

Update issued at 1047 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
flurries very light snow has overspread more of our area that
previously anticipated and adjustments were made. Very little
impact from this as our far southwest is still in line for best
potential for winter impacts. There was a trend in short range
consensus to pull back amounts and based on upstream trends and
nature of this event (banded) there will probably be a cutoff
between little (1" or less) and advisory (3-5"). At this point,
it still appears likely that our counties in current advisory
have best chance for these higher amounts, so no changes are
planned this morning.

Update issued at 648 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
a few flurries starting to enter northeastern north dakota, but
the true accumulating snow will hold off until later this
morning or early afternoon further south. 06z GFS and recent hrrr
runs have continued to trend slightly further south with the
heavier precipitation. Will keep headlines as they are for now.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 310 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
snow amounts in our southern counties will remain the primary
challenge for the period.

Water vapor loop shows the next clipper system moving through
southwest canada, with plenty of moisture and precipitation
already across eastern mt. Models are in good general agreement on
this system tracking southeastward into the dakotas today, and
into mn tonight. With the surface low moving from the northern
rockies into sd neb, much of the QPF falls across central nd into
northeastern sd, with our southwestern counties getting a decent
shot of moderate or maybe heavy snow. There is the potential for
some mesoscale banding, with strong 850mb frontogenesis clipping
our southwestern counties. Cams currently have the highest QPF and
thus snow amounts mainly over western and central nd, although a
few put enough precip out for snow amounts approaching 6 inches in
the far western edge of the cwa. The 06z NAM has backed off on
snow amounts, more on the lower end of advisory criteria instead
of approaching warning. With the uncertainty of where exactly the
banding will set up, will leave the advisory as it is for now and
make adjustments as needed later.

The surface low will track to the southeast and high pressure will
build quickly in behind it. There will be a brief period of gusty
winds across the west and south this evening with the tight
gradient and cold air advection, so have some patchy blowing snow
for a time. The snow will shift off to the southeast during the
evening hours before tapering off. Some of the model solutions
have far southern wilken and grant county getting into the 3 to 5
inch range, but others have been trending further south.

Considering those areas will have a while before precip starts
will hold off on anything for the time being. As the snow in the
south tapers off the north will actually see some clearing later
tonight as the high moves in. Have temps falling to the zero mark
or even below in some areas.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 310 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
another period of colder weather is expected through the weekend
with a gradual warm up back to seasonal temperatures through next
week. A few quick rounds of snow will be possible throughout the
week with only light accumulations.

Saturday through Sunday...

colder air is expected to push southward out of canada in the wake
of Friday's storm system. This cold push will drive overnight lows
into the single digits near zero and afternoon highs into the teens
and low 20s for Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, quiet weather is
expected through much of the weekend.

Sunday night through Monday...

the next chance for snow comes in late Sunday night through Monday
as another clipper system moves southeastward out of canada embedded
within persistent northwesterly flow aloft. Although most
deterministic and ensemble guidance is in good agreement about the
progression of this system, timing of the onset ending of snowfall
is still uncertain. However, snowfall accumulations are expected to
be light overall (<1"), though a few locations may see isolated
higher amounts if any heavier snowband set up.

Tuesday through Thursday...

a gradual warm up is expected for the middle part of next week as
strong upper level ridging and model low level warm advection
overspread the region. A few light flurries will be possible Tuesday
through Wednesday as weak shortwaves propagate around the periphery
of the building upper level ridge, but a lack of appreciable moisture
return will limit the snow potential with these weak systems.

Afternoon highs are currently expected to reach into the mid 30s by
wed thur. However, these high temps will likely be hampered by the
extent of the snow pack and will likely be reduced slightly in the
coming days as the full extent depth of the regional snow pack
becomes more clear.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1135 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
light snow has overspread much of eastern nd and parts of
northwest mn. Most locations further north will only see very
light snow flurries, whoever kdvl to kfar will have the potential
for light snow accumulations at the terminals and lower vis (ifr)
at times. Conditions will tend to be MVFR through the evening
with gradual improvement from west to east late this afternoon
through the overnight hours tonight whenVFR should return. A
brief period of gusty winds may also lead to blowing snow
potential in far southeast nd, but for now the risk appears to be
lower at kfar.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for ndz049-

Mn... None.

Update... Djr
short term... Jr
long term... Am
aviation... Djr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN14 mi55 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast24°F14°F65%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW8NW10NW11
1 day agoS14S13S14S13S13S13S12S12S13S12S11S7S10S6S8S10S8S7S7S9S6S5S5W9
2 days agoSW6SW8SW6SW6S3S7S6S4S4SE4SE4SE4SE6SE7SE6SE7SE8SE8S6SE10S12S12S10S16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.