Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake George, MN

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Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:33PM Saturday August 18, 2018 11:26 AM CDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:45PMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake George, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 181447
afdfgf
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
947 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018

Update
Issued at 945 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
fog has mostly dissipated with some, but improving, lower
visibility and ceiling reports in bemidji and park rapids.

Otherwise smoke still present and precipitation forecast for
tonight into tomorrow is on track.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 340 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
satellite and ground observations continue to indicate widespread
smoke across the cwa. Looking at rap and hrrr integrated smoke
modeling, we will likely see much of this smoke persist through the
day and into this evening, although it is likely that visibility
will be impacted less as the smoke will be higher in the column
due to mixing. As we observed yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures will be impacted and I dropped today's high
temperatures by about 5 degrees. This should give us afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s. If there are any
areas where the smoke is able to clear a bit, we could see a few
spots reach the upper 80s.

Our attention shifts next to the approaching h5 h7 shortwave and
associated cold front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
accompany the front, with a strong storm or two possible. CAPE will
increase ahead of the front; however, many of the models are not
accounting for the lower anticipated daytime high temperatures, and
could be overestimating this a bit. In either case, any strong
storms that are able to form will be situated directly along the
front and will struggle to maintain strength during the afternoon
and evening.

The frontal passage will occur from northwest to southeast,
beginning around 8pm tonight, and will slowly push across the cwa
overnight and into Sunday, with winds becoming northwesterly.

Showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms will persist into
the overnight hours and into Sunday.

Long term (Sunday through Saturday)
issued at 340 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
Sunday-Monday: cold front will continue to push south and east of
our CWA Sunday morning, with showers weak thunderstorms may linger
into Sunday night or even Monday across our in our south and east
where elevated baroclinic zone region of frontogensis lags behind
surface front. There is a signal for higher precip amounts in these
locations, however better moisture advection may be cutoff from our
cwa, so I kept upper limits of pops in our south within likely
category. Smoke may return during these periods, but there is less
certainty due to frontal passage, shift in flow, and any linger
precip that could either clear out smoke or move plumes away from
our area. Cooler post frontal air mass will support below normal
temps in the 70s for highs, and lows into the 40s for some by Sunday
and Monday night. Depending on clearing we may see some locations
drop to the lower 40s by Monday night.

Tuesday-Saturday: ensembles indicate a trend toward rising heights,
though mean flow will tend to remain progressive and quasi-zonal
across the northern plains southern canada. This will result in
rising temperatures back to near or slightly above normal values
through these periods. A series of mid level shortwave troughs
may begin to pass through the region by the end of next week and
next weekend, with slightly more overlap consistency on a system
Thursday night. Details are still sketchy though as the progressive
nature of this pattern lowers confidence and is resulting in higher
spread run-run.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 616 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
patchy fog is in the forecast this morning through around 14z,
especially east of the red river. Fog has been reported
intermittently this morning at kbji with visibility restrictions
anywhere from on quarter mile to 3sm. Elsewhere, we are observing
patchy smoke with occasional and brief visibility reductions. Look
for smoke to continue through the TAF period with mixing during
the afternoon, which will help maintainVFR cigs. A cold front
will slowly push through the region this evening and tonight, with
kdvl being the first to experience the wind shift Saturday
evening.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Nc
short term... Lynch
long term... Djr
aviation... Lynch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN14 mi33 minS 810.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1018.1 hPa

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Last 24hrN3N5444NE33E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4S6SE8SE5SE6S8
1 day agoE3--4SW4--5N7W7W4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW4CalmCalmNW3CalmNE3E3
2 days agoN4Calm--E5CalmE5CalmSE5SE3E3CalmCalmCalmW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.