Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eagle Lake, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:11PM Sunday February 17, 2019 11:21 PM EST (04:21 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eagle Lake, ME
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location: 47.13, -70.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 180246
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
946 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region early this week and
remain in control through Wednesday then move east Wednesday
night. Low pressure from the the southeast states will pass
well south of the state on Monday. Another low from the great
lakes will approach the region on Thursday.

Near term through Monday
945 pm update...

updated to lower mins tonight acrs the north as temps have
nose-dived acrs the vly areas of NRN aroostook tonight as vry
shallow inversion sets up. Hv delayed onset of snow until closer
to daybreak acrs coastal zones as dry air rmns acrs the state
per latest 00z raobs. Not other chgs needed with this update.

Prev discussion blo...

strong high pressure will build in from the northwest tonight
bringing mostly clear skies into the early evening. At the same
time low pressure is expected to develop south of new england.

This system will spread clouds into the region from the
southwest later this evening. Clouds are expected to thicken
Monday as the low moves east northeastward into the atlantic.

Snow is expected to spread into the southwestern portion of the
region by late in the day.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Most if not all of the lgt snfl affecting SRN ptns of the our
rgn should have exited by the beginning of Mon eve, with remnant
cld cvr giving way to at least partial clrg across the area by
late Mon ngt. Arctic air of mdt residence will cont to hold ovr
the fa thru Wed with msly fair skies, with Tue looking to be
the most brisk day and Tue ngt where there could be some
radiational cooling late as winds diminish, the coldest ngt.

Clds will then begin to increase from the W Wed ngt as a S wv
and associated sfc low from the great lakes begins to apch with
ovrngt lows likely occurring prior to mdngt. Snow from this low
will begin to move from the wsw to ene across our rgn late wed
ngt.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Longer range synoptic scale models are in reasonable agreement
with the idea of sn contg across our fa thru thu, with the
greatest QPF fcst ovr cntrl and downeast areas of the rgn.

Models differ somewhat in onset exit tmg and the magnitude of
event QPF bullseye. Of the models, the 00z dtmnstc GFS (ecmwf)
runs is fastest (slowest) with onset exit of snfl, while the
00z ECMWF (cangem) is lightest (heaviest) with fcst qpf
affecting our fa. For this fcst update, a compromise was taken
between the gfs ECMWF model onset exit snfl tmg with the middle
gfs used to weight pop distribution across the fa with MAX pops
in the high likely to nearly categorical range. Wntr wx hdlns
are possible, spcly ovr cntrl downeast areas, but with the bulk
of this event still past 72 hrs out in tm where we still do not
depict 6 hrly QPF snfl, it is still to erly to commit to any
specific snfl amts with this event.

Snfl will taper to sct sn shwrs by late Thu aftn and erly thu
eve across our fa then end by late Thu ngt, followed by fair
and not as cold (closer to seasonal norms) temps for Fri thru
sat. The next potential event will be mainly Sun thru Sun ngt
with the 00z dtmnstc ECMWF and cangem more intense with this
system than the 00z GFS (and its ensm) with sn looking to be the
predominate precip type for the rgn. For now, we weighted max
pops in the high chc category given that not all of the models
are in agreement for an event at the far edge of our long range.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
Near term:VFR conditions next 24 hours across northern
terminals as ovc mid-clouds move in by mid-late morning. At bgr
and bhbVFR mid-clouds give way to MVFR restrictions after 15z
in the morning in low clouds and possible light snow, especially
at bhb.

Short to long term:VFR conditions anticipated across our taf
sites Mon ngt til Wed eve, then clgs vsbys lowering to ifr from
w to E acoss the rgn in sn late Wed ngt and erly Thu morn,
contg into the aftn, then improving to MVFR Thu ngt in exiting
sn shwrs and then back toVFR again on fri.

Marine
Near term: will use the NAM to initialize winds. For waves: the
primary wave system is currently long period southeasterly swell
(currently around 2 feet 8-9 seconds). This wave system is
expected to remain the primary wave system tonight and into mid
day Monday. A new northeasterly wind wave is expected to develop
across the gulf of maine on Monday as low pressure passes to the
south of the waters. This system could become the primary wave
group by late in the day with combined seas remaining around 3
feet. Total water level: estofs surge guidance continues to
perform well so will keep the base tide anomaly along the coast
near +0.10 for the next several days. Spring tide produces
highest levels of the month Tuesday through Thursday so will
monitor coastal event on 21st closely. In bangor large anomaly
due to ice persists so will continue to initialized the base
tide anomaly based on RFC guidance then will adjust for
surge reverse surge.

Short to long term: a SCA will likely be required Monday night
into Wednesday morning due to NW wind gust potential upwards to
30 kt. Lgt to mdt frzg spray is likely spcly late Mon ngt and
tue morn and again late Tue ngt into Wed morn. After a break
with no marine hdlns Wed aftn and Wed ngt, another pd of
marginal SCA conditions is possible Thu with SE winds ahead of
weak sfc low pres from the great lakes. Kept close to ww3 nwps
wv guidance blend for fcst WV hts thru this ptn of the fcst.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Farrar mignone
short term... Vjn
long term... Vjn
aviation... Farrar mignone vjn
marine... Farrar mignone vjn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clayton Lake, ME57 mi66 minN 0 mi-8°F-11°F83%1020 hPa

Wind History from 40B (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--3Calm33CalmCalm45
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Bonsecours, Quebec
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Bonsecours
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Sun -- 02:49 AM EST     4.21 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:16 AM EST     0.86 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:14 PM EST     5.26 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:03 PM EST     0.54 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.444.23.93.22.51.81.30.91.11.9344.85.25.14.43.52.61.710.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for St-Jean-Port-Joli, Quebec
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St-Jean-Port-Joli
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Sun -- 02:50 AM EST     4.28 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:54 AM EST     0.90 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST     5.43 meters High Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:45 PM EST     0.38 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.54.14.343.42.61.81.10.91.32.23.34.45.15.45.24.43.52.41.40.60.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.