Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Steilacoom, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 4:30PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 12:33 PM PST (20:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:41PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 845 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..Variable wind to 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less. Widespread fog in the morning.
Tonight..SE wind to 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning then rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 10 to 20 kt rising to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming variable to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Sat..S wind to 10 kt rising to 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
PZZ100 845 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Offshore flow will prevail today with strong high pressure east of the cascades. South to southeast flow will increase tonight as a front approaches from the west. This system will split and weaken as it moves inland on Wednesday. A stronger pacific frontal system will impact the region on Thursday with gales possible. The flow will remain onshore through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Steilacoom, WA
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location: 47.17, -122.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 201731
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
931 am pst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will move east across the area today,
allowing one more day of dry weather. The first in a series of
weather system will move across the area Wednesday bringing light
rain to the area. A stronger system is expected thanksgiving day
with widespread lowland rain and mountain snow likely. Rain will
continue Friday with a brief break Saturday. Unsettled weather
returns Sunday thru much of next week.

Update Morning satellite imagery shows areas of dense fog, that
actually is expanding, around southern portions of the sound. Many
locations below a quarter mile so dense fog advisory remains in
effect. Webcams show fog layer is relatively thin, 600 feet or
less, so clearing should commence over the next few hours. Will
continue to monitor observations. Previous discussion follows. Ceo

Short term As morning clearing commences, extensive cloud
shield ahead of the approaching trough will be on it way thru the
day as the upper level ridge continues its journey east and away
from the local area. Morning Sun should give way to increasing
clouds from the west thru the afternoon. Today should remain
dry... As the first in a series of shortwaves rotating about the
large scale trough traverses atop the ridge into canada.

Protection from the ridge will be on a rapid decline across
western washington tonight as the longwave trough inches closer to
the coastline with sfc frontal system in close proximity.

Increasing energy at h5 along with weak yet noticeable lift in the
right entrance region of jet streak should give way to rain
shower activity spreading east across the area fairly quickly thru
the day Wednesday. Snow levels should remain above 5000ft and no
significant accumulations are expected across higher terrain.

There will not be much of a break Wednesday night into Thursday
thanksgiving day as the next in a series of shortwaves moves into
the region. Thursday's shortwave will take on a slightly negative
tilt as agreed upon by both deterministic GFS and ecmwf. Strong
dynamics will bring another round of widespread heavier rain with
snow levels dropping to between 3000-4000ft. It still looks
possible that snow advisory criteria may be met across the passes,
as guidance is suggestive of several inches of snow across the
majority of the cascades. This event will need to be monitored
closely over the next 24hrs. As mentioned in the previous
forecast... Accumulations in the passes will probably cause travel
difficulty. Those planning travel through mountain passes should
pay close attention to current forecasts and check on road
conditions by calling 5-1-1 before departing.

By Friday... The next in a series of shortwaves will move across
the area from the northwest. This looks to be a closed low with
colder mid level temperatures... However... Does not seem to have
quite as much moisture than the thanksgiving day system, though
snow levels will drop even further to around 3000ft. This system
will depart quickly to the SE Friday night. Additional snowfall
accumulations thru Friday night across the higher terrain do not
seem significant at this time. In addition, lowland snow does not
appear to be an issue at this time either.

Kovacik
long term...

finally, a break seems to be in store for the local area on
Saturday in the wake of the departing wave at the end of the short
term. Both the GFS and ECMWF attempt to build a shortwave ridge
over the region... Just ahead of the next storm system. Have
trended Saturday slightly drier than the previous forecast for
this reason... Tho there could be some lingering light rain
showers thru a good portion of the day.

The break on Saturday will be short-lived as the next shortwave
and frontal system approach Saturday night and into Sunday.

Scattered showers look probable to close out the weekend. It's
then possible there could be another brief break on Monday before
strong eastern pacific troughing becomes better established and
aims the storm track at the pacnw. Looks to be another unsettled
week next week.

Kovacik

Aviation The upper level ridge over the region will shift
farther east and inland today as a trough digs offshore. The flow
aloft is S sw. The air mass is dry and stable except for
shallow dense fog near the sound. Low clouds and fog will
dissipate by 18-20z. Clouds will increase tonight with rain
reaching the area 12-15z Wednesday as the next front moves inland.

33
ksea... Shallow fog at the terminal this morning with improvement
between 18-20z. Light winds at the surface. Winds becoming S se
tonight, 06-09z, with increasing clouds. Rain in the vicinity by
12-15z. 33

Marine Offshore flow will prevail today with strong high
pressure east of the cascades. South to southeast flow will
increase tonight as a front approaches from the west - small craft
advisories are in effect. This system will split and weaken as it
moves inland on Wednesday. A stronger pacific frontal system will
impact the region on Thursday with gales possible, especially over
the coastal waters and the entrances to the strait. The flow will
remain onshore through this weekend. 33

Hydrology No flooding is indicated at this time for the next
seven days; however, there are some possibilities on the horizon. A
stormy period this Wednesday through Friday could put as much 2 to 4
inches of precipitation over the olympics with less over the
cascades. This could push the skokomish river close to or exceed
flood stage. That is not the likely scenarios at this time because
the precipitation looks to be to spread out over the time period.

The GFS is showing a much stronger storm mid-week next week that has
the possibility of flood-producing precipitation amounts over the
olympics and cascades.

Jbb

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Dense fog advisory until noon pst today for bremerton and
vicinity-hood canal area-seattle and vicinity-southwest
interior-tacoma area.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 4 pm pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james
island 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from CAPE flattery to
james island out 10 nm-coastal waters from james island to
point grenville 10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from james
island to point grenville out 10 nm-coastal waters from
point grenville to CAPE shoalwater 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater out 10 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46121 10 mi26 min 43°F 1014.3 hPa43°F
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 12 mi40 min 43°F 53°F1015 hPa
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 12 mi34 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 33 mi34 min W 1.9 G 2.9 43°F 52°F1014.4 hPa (-1.3)
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 35 mi34 min SSE 7 G 8 42°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.3)42°F
46120 42 mi28 min 44°F 1013.3 hPa43°F

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Lewis / Gray U. S. Army Airfield, WA6 mi96 minN 010.00 miFair44°F43°F99%1015.2 hPa
Tacoma / McChord Air Force Base, WA6 mi96 minN 010.00 miFair43°F42°F99%1015.5 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA7 mi41 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist44°F42°F93%1014.9 hPa
Pierce County-Thun Field, WA17 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair52°F41°F67%1014.2 hPa
Olympia, Olympia Airport, WA21 mi40 minSSW 310.00 miFair48°F36°F63%1014.5 hPa
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA23 mi38 minSW 510.00 miFair49°F36°F61%1016.1 hPa
Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, WA24 mi41 minWSW 510.00 miPatches Fog48°F42°F80%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from TCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN4NE3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN7NE10NE10NE6N6NE7NE7NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Steilacoom, Washington
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Steilacoom
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Tue -- 03:44 AM PST     11.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:06 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:21 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM PST     5.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM PST     13.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:40 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:57 PM PST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.57.99.91111.210.69.37.55.95.15.46.88.911.212.913.512.911.38.96.13.41.50.81.6

Tide / Current Tables for Balch Passage, Washington Current
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Balch Passage
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Tue -- 03:05 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:06 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:08 AM PST     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:22 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:32 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:12 AM PST     1.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:41 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:09 PM PST     -2.59 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:04 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:55 PM PST     1.42 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.80.50-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.50.51.110.70.3-0.4-1.5-2.3-2.6-2.5-2.1-1.3-0.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.