Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeland North, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:46PM Saturday February 23, 2019 1:47 PM PST (21:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 909 Am Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Today..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sun night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Mon night..N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..Variable wind 5 to 15 kt becoming ne 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 909 Am Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..Light low level offshore flow will persist today as a weak low drifts south to the oregon coast. Winds along the coast and northern coast will increase overnight and persist into Sunday afternoon. Fraser river outflow will also develop tonight and continue into Wednesday with high pressure over british columbia and lower pressure south of washington.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeland North, WA
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location: 47.34, -122.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 231817
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
1017 am pst Sat feb 23 2019

Update today through Sunday Minor changes to the various
forecast parameters were made to bring them in line with the 12z
us model mean - and no significant changes resulted. So
confidence on a more southward track of the low that results in
greater impacts from snow over far southern washington and
northwestern oregon has increased. There remain a couple of
ensemble members from the GFS that show a more northward track of
the low in line with yesterday's 12z ecmwf, so there still is some
uncertainty in the storm track and snowfall amounts across
southern portions of western washington. More this afternoon.

Albrecht

Synopsis A cool upper level trough will remain over the area
through the weekend keeping showers in the forecast with daytime
highs remaining well below normal. A system south of the area may
bring the potential for lowland snow to some locations late Sunday
night and Monday.

Aviation An upper level trough will continue to linger over
the area, maintaining west-southwesterly flow aloft through
today. Moist airmass will remain in place through this afternoon
keeping a few spotty showers around. Conditions are weakly
unstable in the low levels. Ceilings will mainly remain MVFR
through through midday, however CIGS will improve to mostlyVFR
by afternoon into the evening hours. Ceilings will lower again
late tonight, with areas of MVFR and local ifr. Showers will
develop and mixed precip is possible late tonight into tomorrow.

Surface winds will mainly be southerly through today, with winds
shifting to the east late. Winds generally under 10 knots.

Ksea... MostlyVFR ceilings expected today, with higher stratus
deck expected to persist. A shower or two is possible during the
day as the airmass will remain moist. Surface winds will remain
southerly through the afternoon. A southeasterly component will
develop during the evening hours (02z- 04z) and become more
easterly late during the overnight hours (02-04z). Winds generally
under 10 knots. A slight chance for a mix of rain snow with
lingering showers tomorrow. However, little to no accumulation is
expected. Jd sb

Marine Low level flow will gradually turn offshore will
persist today as a weak surface low offshore moves south to off
the oregon coast. Fraser river outflow winds will develop tonight
and continue through Wednesday but will be mostly confined to the
northern inland waters. Gradients across the strait look to
strengthen overnight, giving way to small craft easterlies in the
strait and northern coastal waters during the overnight hours
tonight. Low level offshore flow Sunday will continue into
Wednesday with high pressure over british columbia and lower
pressure to the south of washington. Felton borth

Prev discussion issued 325 am pst Sat feb 23 2019
synopsis... A cool upper level trough will remain over the area
through the weekend keeping showers in the forecast with daytime
highs remaining well below normal. A system south of the area may
bring the potential for lowland snow to some locations late Sunday
night and Monday.

Short term today through Tuesday ... Current satellite and obs
showing a relatively quiet early morning over W wa with temps in
most locations near or above freezing and low level clouds in place
to help keep them that way. Radar has some showers... Mainly either
over the western half of the olympic peninsula or over the northern
two-thirds of the cascades. Temps and snow levels with the western
batch of showers will be warm enough to keep precip mostly as rain
although some locations may see a little mixed precip through an
hour or two after sunrise. Activity over the cascades will be enough
to keep inherited headline there going and statement will need to be
refreshed for the morning forecast package. Will continue to
monitor... But at this time activity there does not look like it will
warrant any temporal extension of said headline.

An upper level trough approaching the area will keep the chance for
showers in the forecast today... Although pops and coverage with this
system is fairly unimpressive. Snow levels will climb throughout the
day reaching their peak this evening right around 1500-1800 ft... So
any precip that falls is expected to be rain... Aside from the
aforementioned mix early this morning. Snow levels will drop pretty
hard overnight... Falling to near sea level by early Sunday morning
but by then... Pops start to fall off as well. Snow levels rebound
some... On average to between 700-1200 ft... Sunday afternoon and
evening... So once again... Any precip that falls would likely be
liquid.

The big headache in the forecast comes with Sunday night and through
the day Monday as snow levels plunge again without much in the way
of recovery. Model solutions have been slightly schizophrenic when
it comes to precip... Precip type... How far north it will reach
and... Come to think of it... Most forecast details. Prior solutions
maintained a somewhat consistent trend with precip remaining
generally well south of the seattle metro with the occasionally
trending wetter or drier... But no major deviations. That changed
with the 12z ECMWF yesterday... Apparently advertising the potential
for significant snowfall. Fortunately... The 00z ECMWF has backed well
away from that solution... Making it a significant aberration in the
forecast trend. As such... Primary thinking this shift is to return
forecast to a state similar to 24 hours ago... Ignoring that 12z
solution... Especially given that 00z solutions are favoring those
pre-established trends. All that being said... There still is a
prospect for lowland snow during this time period but total
accumulations at this time look to be less than 2 inches for the
entire 24 hour period starting after midnight Sunday night through
midnight Monday night. As it is just coming in at the time of this
writing... The 06z GFS has any precip being well south of the CWA for
this time period... Turning the snowpocalypse advertised in the 12z
ecmwf from yesterday into a big old nothing burger. The main reason
of pointing that out is to display the wide spectrum of solutions
out there. Until a consistent set of solutions present
themselves... Persistence forecasting in the vein of the already
established trend of prior solutions seems to be the safest bet.

Tuesday looks to see a drying trend continue... Even though current
ecmwf is in some disagreement... Easing on pops for the first half of
the day then bringing a slug of moisture for the evening and
overnight period. Snow levels would still allow for snow or mixed
precip during this time... But given that the models are struggling
with Monday... Not sure if it would be proper to assign much
confidence to Tuesday either. Smr
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... Models agree on an upper
level low off the coast influencing the weather over W wa
Wednesday... They just disagree on how much moisture will be with
it... The GFS generally dry with some showers possible while the
ecmwf is rather juicy. Opted to split the difference. The good news
is that snow levels recover rather nicely... Climbing back above 1000
ft and as such... Any precip would be rain. The best part is that
they stay that way for most locations throughout the long term
forecast period... Hopefully marking an end to the threat of lowland
snow for this winter season. Fingers crossed. This low pushes
through the area Thursday with rain expected. Getting into
Friday... Models once again fall into disagreement... With the gfs
bringing a pretty sizable ridge over the pacific and thus going for
dry conditions. The ECMWF on the other hand ends up retrograding the
aforementioned low... Pushing it back out the pacific and thus W wa
remains dry as this system reloads so it can bring rain back to the
area late in the weekend. To be honest... This solutions just looks
odd. Opted to lean more toward the gfs... But tipped my hat to the
euro with weak pops under 20 percent... Just in case. Smr
aviation... An upper level trough will continue to linger
over the area, keeping westerly flow through today. Moist airmass
will remain in place through this afternoon keeping a few spotty
showers around. Ceilings will mainly remain MVFR through through
midday. Localized areas of ifr lifr are possible during the morning
hours. CIGS will improve toVFR by afternoon into the evening hours.

ExpectVFR to into Sunday morning. Surface winds will mainly be
southerly through today with a more southeasterly component by the
overnight hours. Winds generally under 10 knots.

Ksea... Current MVFR CIGS will continue through midday before
transitioning toVFR during the afternoon. A shower or two is
possible during the day as the airmass will remain moist. Surface
winds will remain southerly through the afternoon. Southeasterly
component will develop during the evening hours (02z-04z) and become
more easterly into Sunday. Winds generally under 10 knots. Jd
marine... Low level flow turning weak offshore today into Sunday
as a weak surface low offshore moves south to off the oregon
coast. Fraser river outflow winds will develop tonight and continue
through Wednesday but will be mostly confined to the northern
inland waters. Low level offshore flow Sunday will continue into
Wednesday with high pressure over british columbia and lower
pressure to the south of washington. Felton
hydrology... No river flooding expected in the next 7 days.

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm pst Sunday for admiralty
inlet-central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-
east entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern
inland waters including the san juan islands-west entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 8 mi36 min WSW 8 G 11
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 8 mi36 min 45°F 48°F1020.1 hPa
46121 23 mi35 min 43°F 1019.9 hPa37°F
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 23 mi48 min SSW 12 G 14 43°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)35°F
46120 30 mi29 min 43°F 1019 hPa37°F

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, WA7 mi55 minSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F35°F71%1020.3 hPa
Renton Municipal Airport, WA12 mi55 minSW 78.00 miOvercast46°F33°F61%1020.2 hPa
Boeing Field - King County International Airport, WA13 mi55 minWSW 64.00 miLight Rain42°F35°F76%1019.9 hPa
Tacoma / McChord Air Force Base, WA16 mi1.8 hrsS 1310.00 miOvercast44°F41°F92%1019.6 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA16 mi55 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F35°F74%1020 hPa
Pierce County-Thun Field, WA16 mi73 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F35°F71%1019.6 hPa
Fort Lewis / Gray U. S. Army Airfield, WA23 mi1.8 hrsS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F42°F96%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from SEA (wind in knots)
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SW12SW10SW9S5S9S8S7S7S7S8S8S10S10SW7S11S8S7S8S10S13S9S10SW10
1 day ago3W7W5W5NW3CalmCalmS3SE8SE8SE8SE6SE5SE5S3S8S9S8SW12S18
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2 days agoNE8N6N7N11N5N11N13N8N9N7N8N8N6NE6CalmCalmNE7E5E7E5N4N10N8N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Des Moines, Washington
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Des Moines
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Sat -- 01:14 AM PST     1.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:42 AM PST     12.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:26 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:08 PM PST     2.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:10 PM PST     10.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.41.83.568.711.112.612.911.9107.54.82.922.5468.19.610.3108.97.1

Tide / Current Tables for Skagit Bay, 1 mile S of Goat Island, Washington Current
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Skagit Bay
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Sat -- 01:26 AM PST     2.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:10 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:10 AM PST     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:27 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:15 AM PST     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:53 PM PST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:33 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:45 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:29 PM PST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:10 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:23 PM PST     0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.6221.81.30.4-1-1.4-1.6-1.5-1.2-0.61.11.71.91.81.40.8-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.