Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vaughn, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:11PM Saturday October 21, 2017 8:44 AM PDT (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:24AMMoonset 6:40PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ135 Puget Sound And Hood Canal- 300 Am Pdt Sat Oct 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Rain.
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..Light wind becoming se to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..Light wind. Wind waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..Light wind becoming N to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S wind 5 to 15 kt becoming n. Wind waves 2 ft or less.
PZZ100 300 Am Pdt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters..A vigorous pacific frontal system will move through the area today and tonight with gales over the coastal waters, east entrance strait of juan de fuca and northern inland waters. Onshore flow will develop behind the system Sunday. A surface ridge will form over the area Sunday night for weak offshore flow Monday and Tuesday. Another front will move across the region on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vaughn, WA
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location: 47.34, -122.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Seattle, WA
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Fxus66 ksew 211106
afdsew
area forecast discussion
national weather service seattle wa
330 am pdt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis A warm front will lift northeast over western washington
today. Rain will be heavy at times, especially coast and mountains
with some river flooding likely this weekend. Snow in the mountains
today will change to rain in the passes by afternoon as warmer air
arrives. Winds will be breezy to locally windy, with advisory level
winds at the coast and much of the north interior near the water.

Rain tapers to showers later Sunday. Showers end Monday with dry
weather into Tuesday. After some light rain with a front on
Wednesday, dry weather should return for the end of the week.

Short term Water vapor satellite loop shows the warm front
advancing toward our region this morning. The associated atmospheric
river of moisture extends well out across the pacific. Models are
more aggressive in lifting the warm front into the area today with
heavy rain at times likely in the warm sector through tonight. Most
models still show the heaviest rain amounts in the central south
cascades and olympics through Sunday with 3 to 5 inches of rain
expected, with locally higher amounts. The lowlands should see 1 to
2 inches, with highest amounts from around king county south. River
flooding is likely to develop on numerous rivers and some localized
urban flooding due to clogged storm drains is also possible. See the
hydrology section below for further details and always refer to the
latest flood statement for current information.

The models have generally trended toward lifting the warm front much
further north than previous solutions. Widespread breezy winds are
likely to pick up across the entire area behind the warm front,
especially late this afternoon and evening. Models indicate that
locally stronger winds are likely to develop over much of the
coastal north interior today where southeast winds tend to be
higher. Local power outages are possible with sustained winds up to
30 or 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph today. At the coast, stronger
winds are favored behind the warm front with southwest winds
increasing to 20 to 35 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph this afternoon
into the evening. Wind advisories are posted for the above mentioned
areas. Isolated power outages are still possible over the rest of
the interior but wind gusts are expected to peak at 35 to 40 mph
late this afternoon and evening, below advisory criteria.

Will need to monitor mountain snowfall today as the warm front moves
in. Most models show snow levels rising rapidly this afternoon.

Several inches of snow could fall down to around 4000 feet before a
transition to rain occurs. A few inches of snow are possible at
higher passes like stevens and white pass, and up to 5 inches at
mount baker and paradise. Decided against a winter weather advisory
given the expected rapid rise in snow levels.

Rain tapers to showers from the northwest on Sunday. River flooding
is likely to continue on numerous area rivers. By Monday, residual
showers will end with drier and slightly warmer weather expected.

Long term Dry weather continues into Tuesday. Models remain in
pretty good agreement in bringing a fairly weak front southeast
across the area Tuesday night or Wednesday. This will be a
progressive system will only light rain amounts expected. This will
not have an impact on area rivers. The gfs ECMWF agree that a strong
upper ridge will build over the pacific northwest Thursday and
persist through Friday, and likely beyond. Expect dry weather but
with some areas of fog likely with light winds over the area. Mercer

Aviation Strong westerly flow aloft will continue over western
washington beyond 00z Sunday. A vigorous warm front embedded in the
flow will spread rain over W wa this morning with rain continuing
through 06z Sunday. Conditions are expected to lower rapidly around
12z-18z with MVFR conditions and areas of ifr.

Ksea... A vigorous frontal system will maintain poor conditions
through tonight. MVFR conditions are expected by 14z along with
occasional ifr conditions. The strong system will produce southerly
winds 40-50 kt at 5000 feet starting around 15z and continuing
through the day. Winds at 10000 feet will be SW 45-60 kt. Surface
winds will s-se 8-14 kt becoming gusty to 22 kt after 17z. Kam

Marine A strong frontal system will move across W wa today
producing southerly gales over the coastal waters, the east entrance
to the strait of juan de fuca and the north inland waters. Small
craft advisory winds are expected over all other waters. The gales
should begin diminishing this afternoon but SCA winds will continue
into Saturday night.

Onshore flow behind the frontal system on Sunday will ease and
eventually turn weakly offshore on Monday and Tuesday as a surface
ridge builds over the region. A weak front will move through the
area on Wednesday. Kam

Hydrology No big changes to the forecast this morning. Updated
rainfall forecasts similar to the previous forecasts with just a
little more precipitation added to the south slopes of the
olympics. The time frame for the heaviest rainfall continues to be
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. The river model has
rivers from the skykomish south reaching minor to moderate flood
levels. The rivers with the best chances to get to moderate flood
stage include but are not limited to the snoqualmie, skykomish,
snohomish, cowlitz and carbon. The skokomish river in mason county
is also likely to flood. In general, flooding will occur on
Sunday but could start as early as late Saturday evening. The
flood watch remains in effect for all of western washington.

The burn scar from the recent norse peak fire presents a special
concern. Increased runoff is probable in the burn area and there
is some chance of debris flows. The goat creek valley and the
crystal mountain ski area are at risk of flash flooding, which
could reach all the way to state route 410. A flash flood watch is
in effect for this small area.

Rain this past week and expected into this weekend has and will
continue to increase the landslide threat in shallow soil layers
especially in the puget sound area and the southwest interior. Felton

Sew watches warnings advisories
Wa... Flood watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night
for admiralty inlet area-bellevue and vicinity-bremerton
and vicinity-cascades of pierce and lewis counties-cascades
of snohomish and king counties-cascades of whatcom and
skagit counties-central coast-east puget sound lowlands-
eastern strait of juan de fuca-everett and vicinity-hood
canal area-lower chehalis valley area-north coast-olympics-
seattle and vicinity-southwest interior-tacoma area-western
skagit county-western strait of juan de fuca-western
whatcom county.

Flash flood watch through Sunday morning for cascades of
pierce and lewis counties-east puget sound lowlands-tacoma
area.

Wind advisory central and north coast from noon today through
10 pm this evening.

Wind advisory for whatcom county until 5 pm this afternoon.

Wind advisory for admiralty inlet and san juan county until
noon today.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough bar until 6 am pdt Sunday for
grays harbor bar.

Gale warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal waters
from CAPE flattery to james island 10 to 60 nm-coastal
waters from CAPE flattery to james island out 10 nm-coastal
waters from james island to point grenville 10 to 60 nm-
coastal waters from james island to point grenville out 10
nm-coastal waters from point grenville to CAPE shoalwater
10 to 60 nm-coastal waters from point grenville to cape
shoalwater out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 9 pm pdt this
evening for east entrance u.S. Waters strait of juan de
fuca.

Gale warning until 3 pm pdt this afternoon for east entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca-northern inland waters
including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 5 am pdt Sunday
for northern inland waters including the san juan islands.

Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Sunday for west entrance
u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm pdt this evening for admiralty
inlet-central u.S. Waters strait of juan de fuca.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 5 am pdt Sunday
for puget sound and hood canal.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCNW1 - 9446484 - Tacoma, WA 20 mi45 min 46°F 53°F1008.7 hPa (-2.5)
TCMW1 - 9446482 - Tacoma Met, WA 20 mi45 min SSE 1 G 2.9
WPOW1 - West Point, WA 29 mi45 min SSE 8.9 G 12 46°F 1008.9 hPa (-2.1)44°F
EBSW1 - 9447130 - Seattle, WA 30 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 54°F1008.9 hPa (-2.3)
46120 35 mi43 min SW 7.8 47°F 1007.8 hPa44°F

Wind History for Tacoma MET, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bremerton, Bremerton National Airport, WA10 mi1.8 hrsVar 36.00 miRain Fog/Mist44°F43°F96%1011.3 hPa
Tacoma, Tacoma Narrows Airport, WA12 mi52 minNNE 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F44°F100%1008.5 hPa
Tacoma / McChord Air Force Base, WA20 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast44°F44°F100%1008.6 hPa
Fort Lewis / Gray U. S. Army Airfield, WA20 mi1.8 hrsE 46.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist45°F45°F100%1009 hPa
Shelton, Shelton Sanderson Field, WA21 mi52 minE 62.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F44°F93%1007.6 hPa

Wind History from PWT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S10S9S12S13S9S12S11S11SW14SW13S13
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S10SW7S6S6S3SW6S6S3S3S43
1 day agoS7S8S5S8
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S11S9SW8S4SW7S5SW6S6S8SW8SW5SW7S5S7S4CalmCalmSW4S8
2 days agoSW3S6--S7S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Vaughn, Washington
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Vaughn
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Sat -- 01:17 AM PDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM PDT     13.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:24 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:37 PM PDT     4.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:04 PM PDT     13.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.30.72.55.48.611.513.313.913.211.596.65.14.96.18.210.512.513.312.711.18.65.6

Tide / Current Tables for West Point, Whidbey Island, 1.8 miles SW of, Washington Current
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West Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:09 AM PDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:38 AM PDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:23 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:14 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:51 PM PDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:31 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:32 PM PDT     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-0.400.60.91.110.60.1-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.30.50.60.3-0.4-1.2-1.4-1.3-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Seattle, WA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.